Two interesting things seem to be happening in Australian politics, and both will determine the shape of events this year.
The first I’ve been writing about more or less constantly over the past six months – the decline in the share of the vote for major parties.
The second concerns perceptions of prime ministers, but more of that shortly.
Let’s stick in the first instance with the decline of the major parties, as the minor parties steal a decent hunk of support.
One Nation is having a good run out in the regions. This is reflected in the first Newspoll, published in Monday’s Australian newspaper, to kick off the parliamentary year.
The poll has support for independents and small parties on 19% (up from 15%, which was already sizeable), and One Nation on 8%, which is back to where it was in 1998.
The primary vote for the government stands at 35% – which will send a shiver down the collective spine as MPs return to the capital.
The precipitous decline – in the government’s case, down four points over the summer – means the major parties will be highly attentive to their exposed flanks, which affects policy on a range of fronts and political messaging.
Events in Canberra are being driven by events on the ground in Queensland and South Australia – the two states where competition from minor parties is strongest.
This means a prime minister who looks constrained will, in all likelihood, look even more so.
The second interesting development relates to Australian voters and our attitudes to the office of prime minister.
If we study the trajectory of the last three prime ministers – Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull – we can say that voters made up their minds early in their term, they formed a negative perception and their perceptions became fixed (let’s exclude Kevin Rudd Mark II from this assessment, given that he was only a nightwatchman).
Back when John Howard was prime minister, approval was more fluid. Howard had good periods and bad periods. He was able to recover from the bad ones.
The last three prime ministers have not been given similar slack by the voting public.
Gillard was defined by the coup against Rudd and never recovered. Abbott was defined by his government’s first deeply unfair budget of broken promises and never recovered, and Turnbull has fallen from stratospheric heights because he is not the person the voters thought he was.
The other thing that has accelerated over the same period has been the corrosive coup culture in Canberra. That culture is a function, at least in part, of the knowledge parliamentarians have acquired that voter surliness about prime ministers, once it takes hold, now tends to be fixed.
Parliamentarians panic and feel that the only way out is to change the figurehead – but of course the revolving door in Canberra is part of what is alienating voters from major-party politics.
So the cycle churns on, one problem compounding another.
The opening Newspoll is not a stone tablet from the sky. It’s only a snapshot in time – but the snapshot tells us one thing very clearly.
Malcolm Turnbull is in trouble as the new political year opens.
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