It was voted “the best city in the world” for quality of life last year, so why are people in their 30s leaving London in droves?
The latest official data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows a 25% increase in the number of Londoners aged 30-39 moving out of the capital since 2010. And this pattern is expected to continue, with experts warning that it is starting to change the demographics of the capital and the South-east.
“People are moving to the outer London boroughs, and towns and villages in the London commuter zone, to get more space at less cost,” says Lucian Cook of Savills. The property firm predicts house prices in the commuter belt around London to rise by 17%-19% by 2021, compared with 13% for the UK as a whole and 11% in London. “London’s housing wealth will flow into Cambridge, Oxford, Brighton and their surrounding areas,” he says.
Overall, there was a net outflow of 30,140 people in their 30s leaving London for other parts of Britain in 2015, according to the ONS. “That’s the equivalent of the population of a town the size of Windsor,” says Pervaze Ahmed, a property specialist at law firm Blake Morgan.
He points out that the price of an average London home rocketed by 37% over the previous three years, compared with a 16% rise for the country as a whole.
“I now act for very few homebuyers younger than their 30s, and the ones I do act for are largely professionals or bankers with salaries well above the average London salary. If this trend continues, the demographic make-up of London will be very different from what it is now, which to my mind is a negative,” he says.
In total, the number of children aged less than four living in London fell by almost 18,000 in 2015, and overall net migration for this age group has risen by nearly 50% since 2012. Migration among children aged five to nine shows a similar pattern.
“We know that having children is a key trigger point for moving,” says Cook. “When people reach the life stage where they have children, they want to trade up in the housing market – and in London, the gap between a two-bed property and a three- or four-bed property has widened as house prices have gone up. The cost of childcare in the capital is high, and it can be more difficult to get your child into your first-choice primary school in London. It’s a lifestyle choice: people will try to get some flexibility about their working hours or put up with longer commutes to make the move successful.”
We spoke to three people in their 30s who have moved out of London, to find out what drove them to leave. We also spoke to a 36-year-old who is renting in London and, because she can’t afford to buy, is planning to purchase a buy-to-let flat in Dublin.
• “We swapped our tiny London flat for a three-bed house in Cambridge, and our quality of life is much better”
Lucy Mills, a 36-year-old publishing manager, says: “There’s no way we could have contemplated having another child if we’d stayed in our one-bed flat in north London – we didn’t even have enough room for a table to sit and eat at.”
She and her wife, Katy, a civil servant, moved to Cambridge with their five-year-old son, Daniel, in 2015, and are expecting their second baby in a few weeks’ time.
“We made a very conscious decision to move here after I was offered an attractive job in Cambridge,” she says. “We knew that, even though our London flat had doubled in value since we’d bought it in 2008, we could never have afforded to move up the ladder and buy a house in the same area. But by using the equity from our London place and increasing our mortgage, we could afford to buy a three-bed terraced house in Cambridge. And once we were settled here, we felt we could make decisions that involved taking more risks, and grow our family.”
Katy still regularly commutes to south London, which takes up nearly four hours of her day, but now spends one day a week working from home. Anyone thinking of commuting this sort of distance should be aware an annual season ticket from Cambridge into London terminals is £4,780, rising to £6,084 with Underground travel.
“Katy’s commute was the biggest compromise we made. Most days, she leaves early and doesn’t return until 7.30pm – but she had an hour-long commute when we were living in London anyway. Now we live for the weekend, and our quality of life in general is much better. We can be more sociable, too, because we have a lot more space and can have friends and family to stay. We love it here.”
• “We’ve bought in Southend – we’d never have been able to afford so much space in London, and we’ve cut our outgoings, too”
Ellie Russell Stratton was born and bred in east London, but left the capital last year, shortly after her 30th birthday. Until then, she and her husband, Colin, 33, were renting a two-bed terraced house in Leytonstone for £1,300 a month with their seven-year-old daughter, Cali.
“We originally tried to buy a two- or three-bed house in east London, near my mum, but we were constantly outbid by cash buyers, usually landlords or property developers,” says Ellie. “Prices started going up by £10,000 a month. Suddenly our £250,000 budget was barely enough for even a small two-bed flat.”
Shortly after Ellie got pregnant with Finn, now aged one, the family gave up on their dream of staying in London and decided to move to Southend in Essex. There they bought their first home: a large three-bed house costing £230,000. “I would have preferred to live near my mum and all my friends, but we would never have been able to afford so much space in London.”
Because their mortgage is 25% cheaper than their London rent, at £980 a month, they have cut their outgoings by nearly £4,000 a year. A Southend-to-London season ticket is £3,408, or £4,736 with the tube.
After the move, Ellie found her wages from her part-time job teaching science at a Barking secondary school barely covered the cost of her commute and childcare. “I was no better off financially going to work – some months, my job actually cost me money. If we’d been able to stay in London, my mum would have been able to look after the kids and my commute would have been shorter, so we wouldn’t have needed as much childcare.”
She’s now a stay-at-home mum. “I loved my school and really enjoyed working there, but it didn’t make financial sense to stay – and the commute put too much pressure on my family.”
• “We swapped our terraced house in Lewisham for an eight-bedroom house in the Cotswolds, though it meant increasing our mortgage”
Emily Settle, 34, and her husband Jonathan, 36, left London two years ago with their daughter Tabitha, four, and son Douglas, two. “We were living in a four-bedroom terraced house in Lewisham [south-east London] but had always planned on moving out to the countryside so we could raise our children there and be closer to family,” says Emily.
“I was working at a ‘magic circle’ law firm as a corporate lawyer and, while I was very happy at work, working in the City can put a strain on family life.”
The couple’s London home had gone up 62% in value over the two years they had owned it. This enabled them to buy an eight-bedroom, Grade II-listed house in the Cotswolds near a good state school. “We increased our mortgage and went for the forever house. It’s a long-term commitment.”
By inviting an au pair to live with them, they managed to offset their larger mortgage payments against a reduction in their childcare bills. They have also kept their commuting costs down. Jonathan, a software inventor for IBM, began working from home full-time, coordinating his working hours with colleagues in the US and childcare routines. Emily joined law firm Foot Anstey, an entrepreneurial firm that supported her decision to work flexibly from a variety of locations, including her home.
“It’s possible to succeed in a rewarding career with a sophisticated client base by working flexibly, with the right mindset and technology. You don’t need to walk past your boss’s desk every day to work effectively,” says Emily.
She loves being able to put her children to bed each night. “By working flexibly, I can manage client commitments and childcare to find a balance. Some days are long, but my career is rewarding and we’re enjoying the benefits of living where we want to and having quality time with our children.”
• “It’s more affordable for me to buy an investment property in Dublin than to purchase my own place in London”
“I’m never going to earn enough to buy a place in London,” says Gráinne McLoughlin, a 36-year-old lecturer in neuroscience at King’s College London. She chooses to live in the capital for her career. “If I didn’t have a permanent academic job in London, I would definitely leave.”
She spends 60% of her net income renting a tiny studio in Chelsea, south-west London, for £1,400 a month. “My flat is smaller than my office.”
She tries not to feel annoyed about paying £16,800 a year to her landlord. “Now I just accept it. I’m on my own and I want to live somewhere I feel safe walking home alone, so I pay a lot to rent in Chelsea. As you get older, though, you want to settle down in your own home – you start thinking about starting a family. In London, those basic things are difficult to achieve. It’s difficult to lead a fulfilled life here when you’re in your 30s.
“But I love working at King’s College, and the quality of the work I do here is excellent. The specialised opportunities I have in London are so good for my scientific career.”
She is currently trying to save 5% of her salary each month so she can put down a deposit on a buy-to-let flat in Dublin. “I’m from Ireland originally and it’s more affordable to buy there and rent it out than to buy my own place to live in London. London has always been expensive – but now, unless you got on the ladder when you were young or have a husband who works in the City, it’s unmanageable.”
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