Households, particularly those in Queensland and Western Australia, will see some benefits from the lift in commodity prices, HSBC says.
A marked and largely unexpected lift in commodity prices, particularly of iron ore and coal, has lifted Australia's export revenues, pushing the trade balance to its most positive position in Australia's history.
But some economists have argued the impact on households is likely to be subdued, given continuing weaknesses in the consumer economy.
Any lift to households would be "less potent than we've seen in recent cycles," HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said. "But we still think there will be some effect."
The comments follow Tuesday's decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep the interest rate steady, noting "growth will be boosted by further increases in resource exports and by the period of declining mining investment coming to an end."
"Consumption growth is expected to pick up from recent outcomes," RBA governor Philip Lowe said. Dr Lowe will expand on the RBA's outlook in a Thursday night speech, and in Friday's release of the RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy.
Some benefits to flow through to households
Households would gain some benefit from the rising fortunes of mining companies through two mechanisms, Mr Bloxham said.
State governments, particularly in the mining-rich states of WA and Queensland, will see a lift in state royalties, which will, in part, flow through to government spending and public sector wages. And the higher profits of mining companies themselves will provide a private-sector boost, flowing through to wages and spending.
"The key point here is we've had this long period where the resources sector has been a headwind to growth," Mr Bloxham said. "That's been most vivid in WA and Queensland."
"That headwind has turned into a tailwind. It should start to support conditions in those two states that have been under a fair bit of pressure recently.
"NSW and Victoria have already seen quite healthy conditions – their growth has been quite solid. We're arguing for some stability in WA and Queensland."
The possibility of households benefiting from the commodity boom has been discounted by Citi economists Josh Williamson and Paul Brennan.
"The export boom is less likely to benefit Australian households this time around," they wrote last week. "Current high commodities prices will filter through to households by less than the previous price boom precisely because there isn't the investment and labour market boom in construction and downstream services now."
Mr Bloxham agrees the impact will be more muted than in previous mining booms. Mining companies have already heavily invested in their capacity, and are unlikely to engage in further infrastructure investment. Secondly, the previous boom was accompanied by income tax cuts. With a federal budget in deficit, no observers expect the Turnbull government to repeat the Howard government's largesse.
But, Mr Bloxham argues, "it is mostly a question of scale".
While tax cuts are unlikely, a reduction in state budgetary pressure will at least in part flow through to state spending and public sector wages. And while there won't be an increase in mining investment, mining employment is already stabilising.
"Our strongest argument is that the significant scale of the ramp-up in commodity prices, exports and nominal incomes means that at least some of the pick-up is likely to get through to the household sector, wages growth and domestic inflation," he said.
"Just a levelling out of mining sector activity and incomes, after five years of decline should be expected to help see wages and domestic inflation stabilise."