This is a case of alliance shock for Australia. Donald Trump's rough treatment of Malcolm Turnbull is about more than their personalities, more than the refugee deal, and more than relations between two leaders.
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The US President has taken to Twitter, this time revealing his thoughts on Australia's refugee deal as PM Malcolm Turnbull assures us, the agreement is still in play. Courtesy 2GB.
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President Donald Trump has defended his "tough" approach to speaking with foreign leaders in his first public remarks since details of his phone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull became public.
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It's about the reliability of the US alliance. "It's not unprecedented for the leaders of the US and Australia to have a tough, difficult, robust conversation," says Sydney University's alliance historian, James Curran.
"But it is unprecedented for this sort of private conversation to be leaked." And it was a leak, according to Turnbull, that leaves him feeling "very disappointed".
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Adding insult to injury, the leak was swiftly reinforced by a hostile statement from the US president, in the form of his tweet that he's still considering the "dumb deal" with Australia on refugees.
Says Professor Curran: "I'm not sure the Trump administration gives a crap about the Australian alliance."
And this is the nub of it. An alliance, regardless of the formalities, is a dead letter unless it is infused with political will. Can Australia trust its great and powerful friend?
Or, as James Curran puts it: "If you have this sort of tension this early in the life of the administration over relatively small beer, what will happen in the event of a major crisis?"
The alliance has never been the security "guarantee" that Australia's leaders like to call it.
When the Menzies government first negotiated it, Australia wanted the ANZUS Treaty as firm as America's treaty with Western Europe.
Under NATO's Article 5, an armed attack on any member is considered an attack on all. The US refused. So the AUSMIN treaty commits Australia and the US only to "consult" each other in the advent of an "adverse challenge".
In Australia's critical moment of need in a crisis with communism in Indonesia in 1962, the US refused even to go that far. The Kennedy administration declined Australia's request to invoke the treaty.
Richard Nixon put Australia on what he called his "shit list" because of Gough Whitlam's robust nationalism.
John Howard suffered a jolting disappointment when he asked the Clinton Administration for ground troops in the East Timor crisis of 1999 and was rebuffed.
How does today's ruction rank? The veteran Australian diplomat Dick Woolcott, who has witnessed the entire life of the 65-year-old alliance, says that this "is right at the top of the list" of difficulties.
Because, says Woolcott, it seems to be a symptom of a fundamental problem with the US under Trump: "I don't think he much cares about US allies."
The alliance, which has never been any guarantee, seems to be entering a zone of exceptional unreliability under Trump.
This need not be a disaster for Australia. If this moment of alliance shock can jolt Australia into doing more for itself, the country might mature from a state of adolescent dependency on America into a more adult state.
This is not an argument for dumping the alliance. It's still a valuable asset. It benefits Australia and complicates the calculus of any potential enemy.
But unless you think we can bet the country on Donald Trump suddenly developing steady judgement and firm goodwill, this is a time for what Professor Curran calls "greater Australian self-reliance within the alliance."
Malcolm Turnbull has been acting as if nothing has changed. This is Trump time. A great deal has changed. Wake up, Australia!
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