Here's a sticky one.
Private equity giant TPG Capital has run the numbers on Fairfax Media.
It is understood TPG had a team looking at Fairfax last year, seeing whether it could capitalise on the firm's investment experience in media and real estate markets offshore and make the numbers work at Fairfax.
Sources said investment bank Credit Suisse had been pitching Fairfax to interested parties for some time, and was particularly keen to put forward Domain chief executive Antony Catalano.
TPG's interest stems from its stake in Asia-focused online property portal PropertyGuru and, more importantly, its success in the United States with RentPath.
RentPath started life as PRIMEDIA, a listed publisher of printed apartment guides, before morphing into digital-only classifieds for apartment leasing and new home sales.
TPG bought the business off rival KKR in 2011, and sold down its stake in 2014.
However, TPG is said to have now moved on from Fairfax for the time being, at least. It is understood there has been no engagement between the two sides.
Fairfax shares closed at 88¢ on Tuesday and its market value at $2 billion. You would think any buyer would have to offer at least the standard 30 per cent control premium, which makes it hard for a party like TPG to get it on the cheap.
That said, new TPG Australia boss Joel Thickins has made no secret of his desire to do deals.
Fairfax is publisher of The Australian Financial Review.
TPG's interest comes as fund managers and analysts seek to pick apart Fairfax and its various business units, in an effort to value the company.
Credit Suisse is among the more bullish analysts on the stock, saying it could be worth up to $1.50 a share. Such a "bull case" scenario would assume a $3 billion valuation for Domain and $300 million for Fairfax's stake in streaming business Stan.
The broker's "bear case" puts a $1.8 billion value on the company, including $2 billion for Domain and negative $300 million for Fairfax's newspaper businesses in Australia and New Zealand.
