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Sydney weather: Heat could break century-old record, before cool change hits

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Sydneysiders who tossed and turned their way through yet another stifling night can rest assured: relief is on its way on Monday afternoon.

A southerly change is expected to hit the city some time between 4.30pm and 6.30pm, and in the west about an hour later, dropping the temperature considerably and marking the start of a few milder days.

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Sun shines for Cole Classic

Punters flock to Shelly Beach in Manly for the 2017 The Sydney Morning Herald Cole Classic on Sunday.

Nights, though, will remain at least three degrees above average for February.

And any relief on Monday is going to arrive only after the mercury rockets up again to a forecast maximum of 35 degrees in the city and 43 degrees in the west.

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If the city hits its forecast maximum, it will break the record for the most days above 35 degrees in a season. The previous record was nine days over 35 degrees, set in the summer of 1895-96 and matched last week on January 31.

Overnight, the temperature in the city dropped to a low of 26.2 degrees just before 4am - but at that time it felt much warmer, at 29.6 degrees, according to the Bureau of Meteorology. Just 30 minutes later, it was already 29.1 degrees in the city, but felt like it was over 30.

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Penrith was still sitting at 28.2 degrees at midnight, but it felt like 32.5 degrees, before dropping to a low of 23.9 degrees just after 6am.

Weatherzone meteorologist Graeme Brittain said conditions would be hot and sticky again on Monday before the cool change swept through, bringing the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms in coming days.

"There is going to be a gusty southerly change, bringing some strong winds to the coast and also a relief in the heat as well, firstly towards to the east but then propagating through to the western suburbs probably about an hour later," he said.

"Tuesday and Wednesday, the maximum temperature will be in the mid to high 20s, so that is quite a significant drop in temperature. It will be welcome relief, but with that there is going to be a lot of rain around on Tuesday.

"We're looking at extensive and persistent rain as well as thunderstorms, probably amounting to 20-30 millimetres quite widely across Sydney and then localised falls in excess of 50 millimetres possible."

Mr Brittain said a low-pressure trough north of NSW had allowed the heat to build up and linger.

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Cole Classic 2017

"It has drawn the heat down for the interior, but also we've got warm sea surface temperatures off the coast and, with sea breezes, this allows moisture to push inland over coastal parts and this made it feel a few degrees warmer than the actual temperature.

A chart of current sea-surface anomalies shows a region of unusually warm temperatures off the NSW coast near Sydney. (See chart below.)

"The combination of hot air mass coming from the interior meeting moister air towards the coast has made it feel very uncomfortable during the night and not allowed the temperatures to drop away," Mr Brittain said.

"That's why we've seen the temperatures a lot of nights so far this year not dropping below the low to mid 20s and feeling into the high 20s quite a number of nights."

According to Beachwatch, sea-surface temperatures measured off Sydney are currently about 24 degrees.

Inland bakes

While coastal populations along eastern Australia are in for another warm week, spare a thought for those living in regional areas, many of whom are in the midst of record-breaking heat.

Towns such as Bourke in north-west NSW are expected to face days of low- to mid-40s temperatures before the mercury nudges 47 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday.

Of the coming days, Saturday has the largest region expected to reach or exceed 45 degrees. (See bureau chart below.)

On current forecasts, Sydney's maximums will climb back into the 30s from Thursday, with 36 degrees tipped for Sunday. For western suburbs such as Penrith, Friday to Sunday will bring more days of 40 degrees, the bureau said.

Weatherzone is owned by Fairfax Media, publisher of this website.