Among advanced economies, Japan is in relatively privileged position – it has a long term stable government and a still popular Prime Minister in Shinzo Abe.
But Japan is also facing an increasingly unstable and tense security environment. That's mainly due to China's determination to militarise the South China Sea and North Korea's determination to proceed with its nuclear program. Now add in the volatile nature of the Trump administration as the mega-version of the bull in the China shop.
Japanese concerns about what could happen in security terms are mirrored by the economic impact of the new protectionist trade policy promoted by Donald Trump, including the prospect of a China-US trade war, as well as higher taxes on Japanese imported cars.
The Abe government, which has taken on a more active leadership role regionally, was a firm defender of the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal to be anchored by the US. It was seen as a way of maintaining strong American influence in the Asia-Pacific more generally as an alternative to the increasing dominance of China.
With all that meticulously detailed strategy being up-ended by Trump, an anxious Abe government is urgently reassessing a much-altered world. As the Turnbull government well knows after Trump's sarcastic tweet about the asylum seeker "deal" on Manus Island and Nauru, being a faithful US ally counts for remarkably little in Trump's "America First, America Only", view.
So it's little wonder the Abe government will be seeking immediate reassurances about US intentions in the region when new US defence secretary James Mattis visits Japan this weekend ahead of Abe's own meeting with Donald Trump on February 10.
It's rare for a new US defence secretary to visit Japan so soon after assuming the position. But the visit also demonstrates the extreme level of uncertainty – if not outright fear – in Japan, about the growing security risks.
The most immediate wildcard is the determination of North Korea to test a new intercontinental ballistic missile as part of Kim Jong-un's nuclear obsession. But the constant underlying concern in Japan remains the intentions and actions of the Chinese leadership and whether and how it will seek to test the new US administration.
Engagement levels
Japan is certainly keen to maintain a high level of US "engagement" in the Asia-Pacific region – including military exercises and patrols by US naval forces in the East China and South China Sea – as the most credible means of holding China at bay.
That means an immediate restating of the Obama administration's commitment that the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea – also claimed by China as the Diaoyu Islands – are within the US-Japan defence treaty.
Yet Japan wants to avoid any incident in the South China Sea that could escalate tensions and any attempt by the US to deny China access to the artificial islands it has already reclaimed and militarised.
Although most members of the Abe government believe Obama's low-key approach in the Asia-Pacific initially allowed China too much leeway for far too long, there's now no interest in any US attempt to forcibly change the status quo. That's as opposed to preventing or limiting further Chinese incursions by sending much tougher messages about a firm response from the US.
That's why earlier comments from new US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson about denying China access to the islands it had built on were considered so alarming in Japan.
Japan is also aghast at any suggestion the Trump administration might be willing to entertain changes to longstanding US policy on not recognising Taiwan – a move Tokyo believes would inevitably lead to military conflict.
It's a truly terrifying prospect for a pacifist nation, which has only just overcome domestic opposition to letting Japanese "self defence" forces more flexibility.
'That would be a nightmare for Japan'
Tetsuo Kotani from the Japan Institute of International Affairs says the No.1 concern in Japan is the possibility that Trump might use security issues as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China over trade.
"What if China quietly agrees to a reduction in the trade deficit on the basis that there would be no US intervention in any dispute over the Senkaku Islands?" he says. "That would be a nightmare for Japan. It's highly unlikely but we can't be sure.
"We still don't know how decisions will be made in the new administration … but either the US or China can provoke a fight and China is now in a very sensitive time politically in the lead up to the party congress so it cannot back off."
That level of uncertainty is particularly unsettling to a Japanese culture that prides itself on predictability, long-term stability and delicately nuanced international relations.
After his own phone call with Trump, the ever discreet Abe said the two leaders had indicated their mutual interest in an increase in bilateral trade and investment, as well as the importance of the US-Japan security alliance.
"I hope to exchange frank views on economic and security issues in general in a meaningful manner," Abe said of the two leaders' crucial meeting in Washington next week.
And despite the understandable Japanese focus on the issues of defence and security, there's no doubt the fate of the Japanese economy under the Trump administration is also of great concern in Tokyo.
Despite the fiscal and monetary stimulus of four years of Abenomics, along with increasing offshore investment by Japanese corporates, the world's third largest economy has barely grown in decades of deflation and reduced demand. One by-product of the TPP was its use as a lever for the Japanese government to press for the sort of domestic economic reform, which is still lagging.
In response to Trumpnomics, Japan had already changed course. It has prepared a detailed plan to demonstrate its willingness to increase its investments – and, naturally, to create thousands of American jobs in the process – in various areas of the US economy.
But in addition to pulling out of the TPP, Donald Trump has publicly lambasted Japan as well as China for deliberately driving down their currency against the national interest of the US.
Japanese officials rushed to insist the rationale for an ultra-loose monetary policy is aimed at combating domestic deflation rather than the US. But just as Malcolm Turnbull has discovered, Shinzo Abe understands he will be dealing with a US ally who's as likely to casually insult him as it is to enthusiastically embrace him.
It's a hard landing.
Jennifer Hewett visited Japan as guest of Japanese government
