Federal Politics

ANALYSIS

Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Star man Malcolm Turnbull no longer blowing voters' minds

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Malcolm Turnbull is the man who fell to Earth. 

The man who, having returned to the leadership as a messiah, then crashed in the polls - plummeting from hero to zero.

In November 2015, he delighted backers and silenced critics by registering a post-coup approval rating of 53 per cent.

Since then though, his support has moved in fits and starts, with the overall trend being down. Now it sits at a flat zero. Or put another way, close to going negative for the first time.

Those approving of his performance (45 per cent) are matched by precisely that proportion of voters who disapprove.

At his height, 12 months ago in the Fairfax-Ipsos series, Turnbull enjoyed 69 per cent approval to just 16 per cent unfavourable.

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That's outstanding in any language but particularly so against Tony Abbott's which was 35-59 when dumped, or minus 24 per cent.

With Turnbull's personal fall, has gone the government as well. In two-party-preferred terms, the Coalition enjoyed a staggering 57 per cent to 43 lead over the ALP in November 2015.

It now trails at 49-51 to Labor having been consistently behind since the election.

The major consolation for Turnbull and company is that they somehow secured another three years in July, amid this decline. If nothing else, there is ample time for a recovery. Time yes, but what about nouse?

What is clear is that the pressure is building.

Famously, Turnbull had justified his spectacularly well executed raid on Abbott's premiership by explicitly citing the government's poor polling, declaring that Abbott had failed to persuade voters and showed no capacity to improve.

Now, as Abbott steps up his provocations from the sidelines, retreading a path walked recently when Kevin Rudd stalked Julia Gillard, Turnbull's potentially negative standing with voters could become a factor. 

Turnbull is now a leader in no man's land - tilting increasingly towards the neo-Trumpists for protection, while his original reason for preferment - strong public support - evaporates.

Voters abandoned Gillard in droves when they decided she was faking hostility to her own beliefs. Are they doing it again?


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