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Donald Trump effect has left some safe haven investors feeling less safe

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With uncertainty the order of the day, expert investors are urging care when looking at traditional safe haven assets.

Global treasuries and gold bullion have long been the refuge of spooked investors, but unconventional monetary policy and fiscal policy confusion have rendered them less secure.

"We are particularly underweight on global treasuries because that very low yield level means they are no longer an obvious safe haven for investors," says Kevin Anderson, head of investments in Asia Pacific for State Street. 

"In times of great concern we certainly do see investors increase their allocation to gold as well, but one of the drawbacks of that is it is a zero-yielding investment."

The rapid onslaught of President Trump's anti-immigration policies, brash comments about currency manipulation and protectionist trade stance have investors contemplating a very different world economy.

As such, gold prices have risen 2.8 per cent to $US1212.8 an ounce in the last five days, with analysts pointing to the ongoing uncertainty around Mr Trump's policies as the main influence. 

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Investors in bonds were alarmed last year when yields sank into negative territory, rendering one of the market's "safest" assets a potential drain on funds. But as Mr Anderson suggests, it all hinges on interest rates. 

"Given yields are so low at the moment, a move upwards could cause a capital loss that eats through that yield protection you have," he said.

The US Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold this week, after lifting them in December. However, investors are positioning themselves to absorb three additional increases totalling 0.75 percentage points this year.

The helpful barometer

Gold is often a helpful market barometer of nervous behaviour and despite these recent moves, it remains one of the worst-performing assets since Mr Trump's election. 

Funds have flowed out of the $30 billion SPDR Gold ETF for 10 out of the 11 weeks since the November election, including a 1 per cent decline in the week ended on January 25, according to Reuters data.

Gold prices are down 5.5 per cent since the election and have fallen 10.5 per cent over the last six months. 

Ramin Arani, portfolio manager at Fidelity Puritan fund, said he sees gold as an attractive "insurance" for his equity exposure given the rising political risks.

"In terms of unpredictability, there is a tail risk with this administration that did not exist with the prior," said Mr Arani. "There is a small but present possibility that government action is going to lead to unintended consequences."

The Japanese yen is also traditionally characterised as a safe haven asset, and State Street's Mr Anderson points to it being significantly undervalued as a currency at present. 

"Fair value for the yen is somewhere in the low 90s," says Mr Anderson. "But the threat to long-term economic purchasing power comes mostly still from the Bank of Japan maintaining a high level of liquidity.

"But I don't really see anything in the near future that would diminish the yen's reputation as a safe haven asset though."