The battle over Barack Obama's legacy has begun.
Barack Obama: the fight for his legacy has begun. Credit: Getty Images
A Trump administration is intent on destroying many of his reforms. It is a pity for America's 44th President that his achievements are vulnerable because of the tricky strategies he needed to get around the Republicans' resolute opposition to his every move.
Any legislation was passed by the narrowest partisan majority; he relied on complicated regulatory mechanisms and executive orders that can be reversed by his successor; all the while he played down the scope of his complex reforms so as not to attract the kind of attention which might put them at risk.
President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama walk in the Inaugural Parade on January 20, 2009 in Washington, DC.Credit: Getty Images
Obama failed to achieve the "post partisan" political change promised by his campaign. He leaves Washington more, not less, rancorous and bitterly divided than when he started. He was bound to disappoint the massive expectations that brought a million rapturous people to the National Mall in Washington for his inauguration in 2008. The dream of a "post-racial" America which attached to him as its first black president was too much to pin on one man.
It's likely that Obama will be judged more kindly for his record on domestic policy than foreign policy; but he was betrayed by his neglect of party building. The severe consequences for the Democrats are now clear.
He entered office during the global financial crisis economic firestorm. His stimulus package held America back from the precipice of depression and set off (arguably) the longest job creation streak in US history, with 10.7 million jobs created, according to factcheck.org. That's more than his predecessor George Bush but fewer than under Bill Clinton. Corporate profits and stock prices reached record highs, and real weekly earnings rose 4.2 per cent in the Obama era. But the failure to prosecute the criminality in the banks and financial markets which created the GFC stands as a blemish.
The Affordable Care Act, known as Obamacare, is the outgoing president's signature achievement, if it survives a Trump reign. It has added up to 17 million people to the ranks of America's health-insured; health care cost increases have slowed to less than a third of their pre-Obamacare levels. A recent rush of sign-ups suggests political hurdles ahead for Republicans intent on dismantling it.
Obama's reforms on immigration and reducing carbon emissions may not survive. His appointment of two African-American attorneys-general saw strong progress on civil rights enforcement and police reform but a Trump administration's zeal is likely to work in the reverse direction. Despite his anguished inability to toughen gun laws, Obama's leadership has put racial inequality squarely back on the national agenda and invigorated the civil rights movement to an extent unseen since the 1960s.
On foreign policy, Obama improved the US's diplomatic relations but his headline achievements are few, especially in the Middle East. He drew down the troops in Iraq (but failed to close Guantanamo Bay). His warning to Syrian President al-Assad that the use of chemical weapons would cross a "red line" proved a mistake when he failed to follow up the threat.
He was understandably reluctant to repeat the disaster of the Iraq war by putting troops on the ground in Syria, but his dependence on a shaky coalition of allies to take the ground fight to Islamic State made him appear weak, and precluded a rapid and decisive defeat of the terror group. His East Asia pivot to counter China's growing influence in the region relied heavily on the Trans-Pacific Partnership for effect, but the TPP's future is far from assured under Trump.
In his State of the Union address a year ago Obama lamented that he failed to live up to the slogans of hope and change that helped him win office in 2008. Yet in his farewell speech this week, with the question of his legacy looming larger, he claimed to leave the stage even more optimistic than when he started. HIs signature slogan "Yes we can" was converted into "yes we did".
People will accept or reject this rhetoric along partisan lines. If he's talking about standing up for the project of government with an unwavering belief in the ways communities can work together for the common good, then yes he did. Whatever else his legacy, Barack Obama with his wife Michelle brought a dignity, decency, erudition and urbanity to the office that will be missed.