10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018

Democrats reeling from a devastating election face a daunting task: the 2018 Senate map.

It favors Republicans in a big way. The GOP will be defending just eight seats, while Democrats must fight for 23 — plus another two held by independents who caucus with Democrats.

What’s worse is the fact that many of the seats they must defend are in states won by Republican Donald TrumpDonald TrumpAngus King: Trump travel ban 'worst foreign policy decision' since Iraq war Gohmert calls Yates 'a political hack' The LGBT Left should thank Trump for immigration order MORE.

Midterm elections for sitting presidents are historically challenging. Democrats in the Senate are hoping to find some political momentum for 2018 given the difficult playing ground.  

Here are 10 Senate seats that could flip, in alphabetical order:

 

Bill NelsonBill NelsonTrump personally pushing Rick Scott to run for Senate Will Mnuchin stop Trump from auditing the Federal Reserve? Senate Dem presses Trump’s Transportation pick on travel ban MORE  (D-Fla.)

Democrats came into 2016 bullish about the Sunshine State.

But Republican incumbent Marco RubioMarco RubioRubio: State asked not to talk travel ban with Congress Rubio, Scott 'uneasy' about Trump immigration order Republicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order MORE’s decision to run for reelection cleared the muddled field and, ultimately, a surge in rural Republican voters outpaced Democrats’ gains in cities and with Hispanics. When the dust settled, Trump won by 1 percentage point, while Rubio held on to his seat by 8 points. 

Nelson, a three-term senator, is a well-known commodity in Florida, having held public office there since 1972. And he starts with a net 14-point approval rating, according to an October poll from Public Policy Polling. 

Possible challengers could include term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R), a Trump ally, or any of the politicians who eyed the seat in 2016, including outgoing GOP Reps. David Jolly or Ron DeSantis.

Millionaire Carlos Beruff and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, both 2016 candidates, could also jump in. But the two are Scott allies, so it’s unlikely either would challenge the governor should he decide to run.

 

Joe DonnellyJoe DonnellyTrump’s Supreme Court fight targets red-state Dems Dem senator: Party will filibuster Trump Supreme Court nominee Indiana teachers hold sit-in to demand Young recuse himself from DeVos vote MORE (D-Ind.)

No state’s Senate race changed more in 2016 than Indiana’s. Republicans started the cycle looking likely to keep control of outgoing Sen. Dan CoatsDan CoatsTrump review exposes GOP divide on torture Five things to watch in round two of Trump confirmation fights Gingrich: Trump should tell new spy chief to 'thoroughly overhaul' intelligence community MORE’s seat with Democratic Rep. Barron Hill in the race. Then it seemed destined to go Democratic once Hill dropped out and former Sen. Evan Bayh jumped in. 

But a flurry of damaging stories and revelations stunted Bayh’s comeback, giving Rep. Todd YoungTodd YoungRepublicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order Indiana teachers hold sit-in to demand Young recuse himself from DeVos vote Trump education pick to face Warren, Sanders MORE a 10-point win behind Trump’s 19-point victory. 

Donnelly seemed to have an uphill battle against Sen. Richard Lugar (R) in 2012, until the incumbent was toppled by former Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

Look for a much tighter race now, with potential GOP candidates such as Reps. Luke Messer, Susan BrooksSusan BrooksA voice for GOP women in DC GOP recruitment goal: More women on ticket Overnight Tech: Trump meets Alibaba founder | Uber to make some data public | GOP Lawmakers tapped for key tech panels MORE or Marlin Stutzman, who ran in the primary this past spring, in the mix.

 

Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillDay before Trump pick, Dems talk filibuster Trump’s Supreme Court fight targets red-state Dems Dem senator: Party will filibuster Trump Supreme Court nominee MORE (D-Mo.)

Democrats are fresh off of a tight loss challenging Republican Sen. Roy BluntRoy BluntRepublicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order Trump rounds out team of White House lawyers The new Washington elite schmoozes over lunch MORE’s reelection and now have to pivot to defending one of their own. Democrat Jason Kander fell to Blunt by 3 points, while Trump won the state by 19 points. 

McCaskill has won tough races before — she defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent for her seat in 2008 and dispatched Rep. Todd Akin in 2012, a race that had been considered close until Akin’s infamous comment about “legitimate rape.”

Republicans will likely eye the red-state seat as a major pickup opportunity, potentially by one of the state’s six GOP lawmakers.

 

Jon TesterJon TesterDay before Trump pick, Dems talk filibuster Trump’s Supreme Court fight targets red-state Dems Dem senator: Party will filibuster Trump Supreme Court nominee MORE (D-Mont.)

Tester steered the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2016, so he’s led the party through its share of tough races. And winning as a Democrat in Montana is no easy feat.

Trump won the presidential vote by 21 points in Montana, but Gov. Steve Bullock (D) tapped into the state’s bipartisan leanings with his own 4-point win. 

GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, the state’s only congressman, is seen as best positioned for a potential Tester challenge.

 

Dean HellerDean HellerRepublicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order Wounded Price heads toward confirmation Critics eye repeal of ObamaCare prescription drug tax MORE (R-Nev.)

Nevada was one of the shining lights for Democrats up and down the ticket in 2016 — Clinton held the state by 2 points, the same margin that former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican Rep. Joe Heck by to win the open Senate seat. 

That’ll give Democrats confidence coming into one of their few strong pickup opportunities of 2018. 

Look for the scramble to start right back up, with names like Rep. Dina Titus and retiring Sen. Harry ReidHarry ReidTrump’s Supreme Court fight targets red-state Dems This week: Republicans aim to break jam on Trump nominees McConnell all but rules out filibuster change MORE’s son Rory leading the first round of speculation. 

 

Heidi HeitkampHeidi HeitkampDay before Trump pick, Dems talk filibuster McConnell: If GOP unites, we will win Trump puts Obama regulations on the chopping block MORE (D-N.D.)

North Dakota is another ruby-red state coming off a Republican blowout in 2016. Trump won by 36 points, Sen. John HoevenJohn HoevenRepublicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order Cabinet picks boost 2018 Dems Five regulations that could come in Obama's final days MORE won reelection by 62 points, and Republican Gov.-elect Doug Burgum won by 58 points. 

Rep. Kevin Cramer (R), the state’s only congressman, could entertain a bid against one of the Senate’s 21 women. 

 

Sherrod BrownSherrod BrownSenate Democrats block vote on Trump Treasury pick Kaine will oppose Carson after Brown, Warren back nomination Senators move to nix Trump's ban on funding NGOs that provide abortions MORE (D-Ohio)

Brown’s populist streak has won him favor in Ohio for more than two decades, including two terms in the Senate, helping him win reelection in 2012 by 6 points. 

But Ohio took a sharp turn in the GOP’s direction in 2016, with Trump winning by 8 points, a larger margin than each of the past five presidential elections there. And Sen. Rob PortmanRob PortmanRepublicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order Portman: Trump's order 'not properly vetted' Trump faces pressure to keep sanctions from GOP MORE won by 21 points over his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland.

A term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) could look to jump back to Congress, or state Treasurer Josh Mandel could look for a rematch against Brown, depending on who decides to run to replace Kasich. 

 

Bob CaseyBob CaseyTrump faces pressure to keep sanctions from GOP Overnight Regulation: Liberal groups train their fire on Trump education, labor picks Red-state Dem senator wants meeting with Trump on outsourcing MORE (D-Pa.) 

The Casey name has been in Pennsylvania politics for about a half-century, beginning with Casey’s father, who started in the state Senate in 1963 before stints as the auditor general and governor.

Casey has won big even in the tight state — he defeated incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum by 18 points in 2006 and won reelection by 9 points in 2012. 

This year, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey won reelection by 2 points, bucking all the polls, and the electorate only stands to become more favorable for Republicans in an off year. 

Potential candidates could include two early Trump backers in Congress, Reps. Lou BarlettaLou BarlettaRepublicans who oppose, support Trump refugee order GOP's 'sanctuary city' crackdown bill takes meat-cleaver approach Congress asserts itself MORE and Tom Marino, or others such as Rep. Pat Meehan. State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman is another who could consider a bid, but many are in a holding pattern until Gov. Tom Wolf (D) decides whether he’ll seek reelection. 

 

Joe ManchinJoe ManchinDay before Trump pick, Dems talk filibuster McConnell: If GOP unites, we will win Trump’s Supreme Court fight targets red-state Dems MORE (D-W.Va.)

Manchin’s decision to run for reelection boosted the hopes of Democrats looking to hold the deep-red state.

Trump won the state by 42 points, but the Mountain State bucked the idea of voting straight ticket, electing Democratic coal executive Jim Justice to the governor’s mansion with a 7-point margin.

Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey could consider a bid, as could GOP Reps. David McKinleyDavid McKinleyW.Va. attorney general may challenge Manchin Overnight Tech: Trump meets Alibaba founder | Uber to make some data public | GOP Lawmakers tapped for key tech panels 10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018 MORE, Alex Mooney or Evan Jenkins. 

 

Tammy BaldwinTammy BaldwinDems push to postpone vote on health secretary Overnight Defense: Pentagon chief working to exempt Iraqis from Trump order Senate Dems introduce bill to block Trump's immigration order MORE (D-Wis.)

The Wisconsin Republican infrastructure in the state helped Gov. Scott Walker win three elections in six years, including during the 2012 election that saw wins by both Baldwin and President Obama. 

Trump’s 1-point victory there, as well as Johnson’s comeback 3-point victory, gives Republicans hope to build on those margins with a midterm electorate. 

Walker is likely to run for reelection, but his lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, could decide to go national. Rep. Sean DuffySean DuffyMajor progressive group unveils first 2018 Senate endorsements GOP rep on Dems skipping inauguration: ‘Put your big-boy pants on’ Huizenga to chair influential subcommittee overseeing Wall Street MORE is another name mentioned as a potential Senate contender.