Article

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute, 2880 Broadway, New York, New York 10025, United States
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2013, 47 (9), pp 4889–4895
DOI: 10.1021/es3051197
Publication Date (Web): March 15, 2013
Copyright © 2013 American Chemical Society
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Abstract

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In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000–7.04 million deaths and 80–240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

Comparison with avoided GHG emissions in projection periods of prior studies; figures showing upper and lower bounds for prevented deaths and GHG emissions assuming nuclear power replaces fossil fuels from 1971–2009, projections of nuclear power production by region, and total electricity production from 1971–2009 by fuel source for the top five CO2-emitting countries and OECD Europe. This material is available free of charge via the Internet at http://pubs.acs.org.

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Received 14 December 2012
Accepted 15 March 2013
Published online 15 March 2013
Published in print 7 May 2013