Australia and New Zealand are on the cusp of a major backflip on the issue of foreign-born Test players as global momentum gathers in favour of a new five-year residency rule.
Not four months after the Australian Rugby Union declared its opposition to the change, Fairfax Media has learned the four SANZAAR nations of South Africa, New Zealand, Australia, and Argentina are now poised to vote as a regional bloc in favour of it.
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The change of heart, at least on the part of Australia and New Zealand, is likely to give the campaign the necessary 75 per cent majority it needs to achieve at a vote of the World Rugby Council meeting in May.
It means Test nations will have to wait five years, instead of three, to cap a player who does not qualify on birth or family ancestry grounds. In Australia it could slow the ascent of Taniela Tupou, the "Tongan Thor", the Reds prop who was taken on the Wallabies spring tour as a development player last year.
Tupou, who became an internet sensation with a three-try effort for Auckland's Sacred Heart College, grew up in Tonga, finished high school in New Zealand and was signed – after a bidding war – by Queensland in 2015. Under current regulations, the 20-year-old would qualify to play for Australia at the end of this year. If the rule change is approved he will not qualify in time for selection in the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
ARU boss Bill Pulver was opposed to the change as recently as October, telling Fairfax Media a move to five years would be "playing into the hands of rugby league and other codes" and that it did not make sense when a player could become an Australian citizen after four years.
"It would be a pretty bizarre scenario where you could be allowed by the government to be a citizen of the country but not allowed to play for their team," Pulver said. "And to me a far bigger issue that World Rugby should be collectively dealing with is that the French and English clubs are raiding all of our countries of our players, which is having an incredibly disruptive impact on domestic competitions around the world."
The ARU would not comment on the issue but it is understood Pulver's time on the World Rugby working group looking at the issue has helped change his mind.
![Change mooted: A possible change to world rugby's residency rule could mean Tongan-born Taniela Tupou has to wait longer ...](/web/20170127130435im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/t/z/9/y/g/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gtvjjq.png/1485412851289.jpg)
Despite the high number of Fijian and Tongan-born players in current and recent Wallabies squads, only two players – Henry Speight and Sefa Naivalu – out of the past 90 or more Wallabies have qualified using the three-year residency rule. The remainder, if they did not qualify by birth or Australian parents or grandparents, moved to Australia with their families as children, schoolboys or young adults.
Fairfax Media understands there is also talk of any change taking effect after the next World Cup in Japan, which would limit the impact on players who have signed club contracts with Test qualification in mind and potentially save the aspirations of a player such as Tupou.
The campaign has been spearheaded by new World Rugby vice-chairman and former Argentina international Agustin Pichot, who used his first media conference in the role last year to call the current three-year rule "wrong" and decry the practice of tier one unions recruiting schoolboy players from the Pacific Islands and sewing up their careers as teenagers. Under current rules, once a player has been capped for a country in sevens or XVs, they can never play for another nation.
The issue has been a regular talking point among fans and pundits, but at the time of Pichot's election there was little appetite for change among the top nations. It appears his lobbying is paying off. RFU chief Ian Ritchie recently threw his support behind a move to five years, the new president of the French Rugby Federation (FFR), Bernard Laporte, has indicated France will only select players with French passports and Scotland coach Vern Cotter – a Kiwi – broke ranks with the Scotland Rugby Union this week and agreed a change was "probably a good thing".
The backing of the SANZAAR unions is key, however, to the campaign's success. With Ireland, Wales and Scotland – three countries who have used the rule to augment their squads with foreign players – still officially opposed to a change, Pichot is unlikely to achieve the necessary 75 per cent majority without the votes of Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and South Africa, who are close allies.
The prospect that they may vote as a bloc would be music to the ears of the former halfback.