It goes without saying that the first lesson in this inaugural year of Trump is to avoid making predictions. It’s one I should have learnt early in the 1960s when, as a cadet journalist on The Age newspaper covering the Rolling Stones’ visit to Melbourne, I prophesied the band had no future. I had my reasons, but still … You might bear this in mind as I cast an eye over the horological landscape, one that appears to be undergoing some seismic shifts right now.
The numbers are clear enough: we’re spending less on mechanical watches than we were, the Swiss variety especially. Blame Brexit, terrorism attacks or the fall-off in demand in China. Swiss export figures show the world’s appetite for wrist machines has been dropping every month since 2015 with no sign of a turnaround. And while Rolex remains top dog for sales – an incredible feat for a luxury brand – that interloper Apple is now in second place, an equally incredible achievement considering it launched its Apple Watch barely two years back.
Which leads to my first prediction, namely that Rolex will continue its winning ways, and ditto for Apple. Rolex because it has nailed the “everyday aspirational” niche, having virtually invented the mass luxury category of wristwear; and Apple, because its smart watch is the cleverest out there, not to mention the most accurate.
My second prediction is that brands will have to think more seriously about value.
Prices under pressure
As you read this, the first of the year’s giant watch fairs, Geneva’s Salon International de la Haute Horlogerie, will have wrapped. While the new releases are expected to be as special as usual, brands will be paying close attention to making sure they’re priced to leave the shelves rather than remain stuck on them.
That’s going to be a delicate balancing act given the prices being asked for some pieces in recent years. Expect some of the exotic independents to be under real pressure, while better-known brands will embrace steel cases with a vengeance. I expect IWC to be strong, possibly at the expense of Jaeger-LeCoultre and Panerai. Just a feeling.
Ongoing winners are easier to pick – you’re looking at brands that have production under tight control, especially makes deemed desirable by enthusiasts. A.Lange & Söhne and Audemars Piguet come immediately to mind. German brands from Glashütte Original to Moritz Grossmann also fit the bill. At the lower-price end, Sinn’s bullet-proof watches – well, Sinn does use submarine steel for its cases – have long enjoyed solid appeal among watch buffs.
As for my final prediction, that’s easy: in their need to find a new audience, watch brands have discovered women and are catering to the feminine forearm as never before, moving beyond men’s watches sprinkled with a few baubles to special complications and jewellery pieces. For this reason alone it should be a sparkling year.
Bani McSpedden is watch editor of The Australian Financial Review and of watch-next.com.
