Alinta Energy float 2.0 readies for runway

Gas infrastructure owner and IPO-hopeful Alinta Energy is expected to meet with potential investors in coming weeks.
Gas infrastructure owner and IPO-hopeful Alinta Energy is expected to meet with potential investors in coming weeks. iStock

Joel Thickins has taken the reins at TPG and his first port of call is Alinta Energy's float. 

It's understood Thickins has his lead managers and lawyers running and re-running Alinta's numbers and pitch to investors, before the company re-engages with domestic and offshore funds in coming weeks. 

From all reports, no stone is being left unturned.

While Alinta is fresh in investors' minds - remember the company started formal float marketing last year before the deal was postponed in November - analyst and investors' focus is expected to shift to 2018 financial year numbers this time around. 

That means Alinta, its hedge fund and private equity owners headed by TPG, its brokers and lawyers need to forecast numbers out another 12-months.  

When Alinta's lead managers fronted potential investors late last year, they were talking about $375 million to $380 million EBITDA in the 2017 financial year and with growth of about 6 per cent to 8 per cent a year. 

Assuming that's still the case, it means EBITDA just north of $400 million for the FY18 valuation period. 

In terms of trading multiples, Alinta's closest peers - AGL Energy, Origin Energy, DUET Group and APA Group- are each trading up 4 per cent to 17 per cent since Alinta's IPO was shelved, based on their 2018 financial year EBITDA forecasts. 

While fund managers will point out that there are some company-specific reasons for these gains, it's hard to completely ignore the comps. 

There is also $7.4 billion coming out of the utilities sector, should DUET Group be snapped up in May as scheduled. With DUET gone from the boards, Alinta would be one of the highest yielding utilities stocks on the ASX. 

And Alinta's also expected to unveil a few new growth initiatives in its east coast retail business, such as entering Queensland and white label renewable partnerships. 

It'll be interesting to see how Alinta fares. The assets are well known in the local utilities investor community, having been snapped up and sold numerous times over the past 15-years. It's expected to come to market with plenty of free cashflow to put into growth initiatives and/or for dividends. 

The utility is a household name in Western Australia and also owns a collection of power infrastructure assets. It's expected to be worth about $3 billion, including debt. 

The other wildcard is the IPO market. While the market was softening late last year, bankers can't be sure about the 2017 conditions until a couple of chunky contenders start formal marketing.  

Alinta's adviser line-up is unchanged for its second attempt at the ASX-boards. Lazard is independent adviser, while Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Capital and UBS are global coordinators, and Credit Suisse and Morgan Stanley are joint lead managers