Business

Live

Markets Live: Iron ore miners lead charge

Gains in local shares pick up some speed in late trade, led up by the big miners following rises in commodity prices as well as a rally in BlueScope Steel, but the overall mood remains cautious as investors fret over Trump's protectionist stance.

  • The big miners post solid gains to prop up the market as iron ore futures soar more than 6 per cent
  • BlueScope shares surge to a six-year high following a profit upgrade thanks to stronger steel prices
  • CIMIC launches $172m hostile takeover bid for Macmahon, offering investors a 32% premium
  • The Aussie dollar tops US76c for the first time in more than two months as greenback weakens
  • Trump has withdrawn the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and flagged a border tax

That's all for today - thanks for reading this blog and posting your comments.

We'll be back tomorrow form 9am.

Have a good evening.

market close

The sharemarket took news of America pulling out of the Trans Pacific Partnership in stride, rising strongly on the back of rallying iron ore futures and some upbeat company news. 

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 rose 0.7 per cent to 5651.6, while the broader All Ordinaries added 0.7 per cent to 5707.5.

Paterson Securities economist Tony Farnham said the US withdrawal from the TPP, which sparked some jitters in currency markets, was largely expected, and therefore priced into shares.

"It's been a long-winded process," Farnham said. "The US decision was well-telegraphed. He said he was going to do it, so it's not as if it's unexpected."

Leading the market higher were the big miners, boosted by soaring Chinese iron ore futures. Fortescue Metals jumped 5.5 per cent to $6.54, while metal producer South32 recovered Monday's losses to close Tuesday up 6.25 per cent. BHP rose 2.4 per cent to $27.01 while Rio Tinto added 3.8 per cent to $64.74.

Also pulling the resources sector higher was BlueScope Steel, which reached its highest price in six years on the back of an upgraded earnings forecast, surging 8 per cent to $11.21.

The healthcare sector was another winner, with Resmed rising strongly after it posted a 17 per cent rise in second quarter sales, above market expectations. Its shares soared 7.2 per cent, while Sigma Pharmaceuticals rose 3.4 per cent.

Slumping further was troubled Bellamy's, down another 1.8 per cent to $3.78 as former CEO Laura McBain quit the board and IMF Bentham told the ASX it was bringing a second class action against the organic baby food and formula maker.

While the day saw some support for bank stocks, they finished the day mostly down, with ANZ losing 0.4 per cent, NAB finishing level, Westpac losing 0.4 per cent. The Commonwealth Bank bucked the trend to finish up 0.4 per cent.

Tenants market: residential rents are barely budging.

House prices are predicted to climb even higher in Sydney and Melbourne in 2017, albeit at a slower pace than last year, according to new forecasts from National Australia Bank.

The bank's economists lifted their forecast for national house prices, citing new survey figures on sentiment towards property, and the assumption interest rates will fall further this year. They are predicting a 4.5 per cent rise in Sydney and a 5.6 per cent lift in Melbourne.

However, the bank's economists predict it will be a different story in the apartment market, where they believe a wave of new units being completed will lead to much softer conditions.

They forecast apartment prices will fall 2.7 per cent in Melbourne in 2017, and 1.8 per cent in Brisbane. Sydney units would rise by 1 per cent, they predicted.

Nationally, they increased their capital city average house price forecast from 0.4 per cent to 3.4 per cent.

The bank predicts the RBA will cut the cash rate to fresh record low of 1 per cent this year, from 1.5 per cent now, and this is one reason for its prediction of higher house prices.

Sydney has the second least affordable housing market in the world.
Sydney has the second least affordable housing market in the world.  Photo: Demographia
commodities

Share gains have accelerated in the afternoon, and that's mainly thanks to a rally in the big miners following soaring Chinese steel and iron ore futures.

BHP has jumped 2.5 per cent, Rio is up 3.2 per cent and Fortescue has added 5.2 per cent.

Investors are driving the futures higher after a four-day retreat, betting demand will pick up following the Lunar New Year break as Beijing moves to spur economic activity.

Traders and end-users are likely to replenish steel inventories from next month on hopes the government will lift infrastructure spending. But trading activity in physical markets was extremely slow ahead of the week-long holiday that starts on Friday.

The most-active rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is up 4.1 per cent at 3304 yuan ($US482) a tonne, while iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is up 6.1 per cent at 648 yuan per tonne, after climbing more than 7 per cent at one stage.

"Investors are probably building positions in belief that prices may go up after the holiday which will be supported by restocking," said Richard Lu, analyst at CRU consultancy in Beijing.

After easing credit lines to boost the real estate sector last year, China may focus on infrastructure investment this year and take measures to keep the economy growing at a stable clip, said Lu.

Ahead of China's Spring Festival, trading was tepid in physical markets for both steel and iron ore, and traders say activity is unlikely to gain steam until after early February.

"We can barely hear offers and bids in the physical market right now, they're very scarce," said Lu, adding that steel export markets were similarly hushed with some Asian markets also shutting off for the Lunar New Year.

Iron ore for delivery to China's Qingdao port rose 0.9 per cent to $US81.13 a tonne on Monday, after a two-day drop.

Iron ore futures are rallying ahead of the Chinese new year festivities.
Iron ore futures are rallying ahead of the Chinese new year festivities. Photo: Supplied
eye

An 'earnings bonanza' is set to drive the Australian sharemarket above the elusive level of 6000 points this year.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch expects the S&P/ASX200 index to reach 6100 by the end of 2017, a rise of around 9 per cent from current levels, with the growth fuelled by higher corporate earnings.

Companies across key sectors are on track for an "earnings bonanza" in 2017 on the back of cost-cutting, exposure to the US economy, commodities demand from China and state and household spending on construction, according to BoA Merrill Lynch equity strategist Sameer Chopra.

Company earnings guidance usually "starts high, ends low," he says. But that downward guidance revision didn't happen at the end of 2016. "Instead, we've seen earnings revised upwards. And this trend is quite good across energy, financials, materials, consumer staples … it's quite widespread."

At company shareholder meetings between September to October last year, 76 per cent of ASX200 companies reaffirmed their earlier earnings forecasts, while just 10 per cent downgraded their expected earnings. 

Chopra says that, according to the bank's analysis, companies are still at the early to middle stages of significant cost-cutting programs.

"One of the big drivers of earnings recoveries in companies has been the extent to which they can pull out costs. Companies that went early have pulled out a lot. So that's generated a lot of interest."

Secondly, companies exposed to the US stand to benefit from tax reform, which new President Donald Trump has indicated as a priority. These include many industrial and healthcare stocks.

The materials and energy sector will also see earnings buoyed by higher commodity spot prices, including iron ore, which is currently around 35% above the bank's forecast. While the high price was unexpected, it is supported by Chinese demand, as well as supply-side reforms, which mean high commodity prices are "likely to continue to be supportive for Australian producers". 

Here's more

Back to top
dollar

The greenback may be under pressure at the moment, but eventually the US dollar will strengthen again and the Federal Reserve will normalise policy at a faster rate than the market expects, according to Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius.

"We do expect a strong US dollar," Hatzius said on Bloomberg TV in response to a question about whether he expects the strong currency to continue. He forecast the dollar would reach parity with the euro by the end of the year.

The US dollar has strengthened more than 7 per cent against the yen and 2.6 per cent against the euro since the November 8 election amid expectations President Donald Trump will boost economic growth through tax cuts and spending increases. But over the past weeks it's lost some of the gains as investors fret over Trump's policies.

Trump has called the currency "too strong" while US Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin said an "excessively strong dollar" could have a negative short-term effect on the economy.

The strength of the US currency is "mainly based on interest rate differentials," according to Hatzius, who sees this continuing, with the Federal Reserve normalising policy while "the ECB and the Bank of Japan still can keep policy very easy for a long time to come".

Goldman Sachs thinks that the Fed will raise rates faster than the market is expecting, Hatzius said. The bank forecasts that the Fed will raise rates three times this year to 1.5 per cent, higher than the median estimate of 1.25 per cent.

"The economy is generally in pretty decent shape in the US," Hatzius said. The main change to the outlook is easier fiscal policy, which should start to take effect from late 2017 and "prolong this period of above trend growth into 2018," he said.

Goldman Sachs remains convinced the Fed will lift rates three times this year.
Goldman Sachs remains convinced the Fed will lift rates three times this year. Photo: CHARLES KRUPA
japan

Japanese manufacturing activity expanded in January at the fastest pace in almost three years as export orders surged, suggesting that overseas demand is not as weak as some economists and business leaders had feared.

The Markit/Nikkei Japan Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to a seasonally adjusted 52.8 in January from a final 52.4 in the previous month.

The index remained above the 50 threshold that separates expansion from contraction for the third consecutive month and showed that activity expanded at the fastest since March 2014.

"The Japanese manufacturing sector started the new year on a strong footing," said Amy Brownbill, economist at IHS Markit, which compiles the survey.

"The rise in total incoming new orders was driven in part by a sharp increase in international demand, as new export orders rose at the quickest rate in over a year."

Some economists have expressed concern about Japan's economic outlook because its exports could suffer if US President Donald Trump adopts protectionist trade policies.

Japanese manufacturing is picking up as exports surge.
Japanese manufacturing is picking up as exports surge. Photo: Bloomberg
need2know

Pinnacle Investment Management's rival below-market bid for ethical funds management empire Hunter Hall International has been described as "unrealistic" by one of the company's biggest independent shareholders.

Carlos Gil, chief executive of fund manager Microequities Asset Management, which owns about 5 per cent of Hunter Hall International, said he could see how buying Hunter Hall made strategic sense for Pinnacle, but he could not see how it was in the interest of shareholders to accept Pinnacle's $1.50-a-share offer.

On Monday, Pinnacle delivered a superior deal to Washington H. Soul Pattinson's $1-a-share bid, but even though Pinnacle's offer rises to $2-a-share upon certain conditions being met such as funds under management remaining above $900 million, both are below market value. Soul Patts already has 19.9 per cent of the company after striking a deal with founder Peter Hall.

Hunter Hall International shares are trading at $2.24, down 5.1 per cent for the session.

"I don't think Pinnacle or Soul Patts expect Microequities to tender its stock at the price point," Gil said.

money

And while we're talking takeovers: CIMIC has launched a $172 million hostile takeover bid for mining contractor Macmahon, after sitting on a stake in the company for nine-and-a-half years.

The contracting giant lobbed the off-market cash offer of 14.5¢ per share this morning, valuing the company at $172 million. 

CIMIC, formerly called Leighton Holdings, has a 20.54 per cent stake in Macmahon worth $35.7 million and said it had been an investor in the company since June 2007. It is spending $136.3 million to mop up the remaining shares it does not already own.

CIMIC said the final offer, which represents a 31.8 per cent premium to Macmahon's last closing price of 11¢, would not be increased during the offer period.

Shares today have shot up 32 per cent to 14.5 cents, suggesting investors expected the bid to be accepted without much of a change.

CIMIC, which is 72.5 per cent owned by Spain's ACS Group, said in a statement it had received Foreign Investment Review Board approval for the bid and that the competition watchdog had no concerns.

It plans to delist Macmahon, as it did UGL, if it builds a large enough stake.

Citi analyst Simon Thackray said he wasn't surprised by the acquisition, noting an absence of the usual level of year end contract announcements.

"M&A ahead of the FY16 result on February 8  is not altogether unsurprising to us on expectations that work was harder to find for CIMIC in 2016 than in 2015."

Fresh from seizing UGL, Spanish-backed CIMIC has finally moved on Macmahon.
Fresh from seizing UGL, Spanish-backed CIMIC has finally moved on Macmahon.  Photo: Glenn Hunt
china

China should tighten monetary policy as signs of overheating emerge amid quickening inflation, according to the top-ranked forecaster for the nation's economy.

With policy makers torn between reining in price gains and stabilising growth, corporate lending has become too cheap, said Song Yu, chief China economist at Beijing Gao Hua Securities.

The real interest rate for companies - the lending rate minus producer price increases - has turned negative for the first time since 2011 as the People's Bank of China kept its benchmark lending rate at a record low and the economy snapped out of a deflationary funk.

"Economic growth is trending down gradually while inflation is trending up," said Song, whose firm is Goldman Sachs's joint-venture partner in the mainland. "This makes it hard for policy makers to be decisive in moving in one direction or the other."

Song was the top ranked forecaster for Chinese economic indicators in the fourth quarter of last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That continues a winning stretch dating back to late 2012. The rankings measure the accuracy of analysts' estimates for key data releases.

China's policy makers are in a bind: While faster inflation and US rate increases argue for monetary tightening, steady economic growth is also key as leaders brace for potential trade tensions amid Donald Trump's protectionist threats and a reshuffle of high-level Communist Party officials this year.

Instead of raising benchmark borrowing costs, the PBoC has pushed up money-market rates since August, sparking a bond selloff.

Yet to Song, the tightening has been too little, too late - and too ambiguous. The PBOC's mixed signals have caused money-market rates to go from low and steady to high and volatile, which can lead to "misunderstandings about policy intention," said Song.

With monetary policy constrained by an inflexible exchange rate, China is also becoming more reliant on administrative measures such as capital controls or lending guidance, rather than market-based tools, he said.

The People's Bank of China should lift rates, a top forecaster argues.
The People's Bank of China should lift rates, a top forecaster argues. Photo: Bloomberg
Back to top

Australia hopes to salvage the Trans-Pacific Partnership by encouraging China and other Asian nations into the agreement in the wake of US President Donald Trump's decision to pull his country out of the pact.

Fulfilling a campaign pledge Trump signed an executive order in the Oval Office on Monday pulling the United States out of the 2015 TPP agreement and distancing the United States from its Asian allies.

The trade deal, which the United States had signed but not ratified, was a pillar of former president Barack Obama's pivot to Asia. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has touted it as an engine of economic reform, as well as a counter-weight to a rising China, which is not a TPP member.

TPP member Australia said China and Indonesia could join in the vacuum left by the US. The TPP had yet to come into force with many countries still to ratify it.

"The original architecture was to enable other countries to join," Trade Minister Steven Ciobo told the ABC. "Certainly I know that Indonesia has expressed interest and there would be scope for China if we are able to reformulate it."

The remaining 11 TPP nations are Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam, Australia and New Zealand.

Japanese Economy Minister Nobuteru Ishihara said today he still believes that free trade is a source of global economic growth.

Ishihara, when asked by reporters whether Japan would be open to a bilateral trade agreement with the US, said that it may still take time to determine whether US officials would start to seek such pacts. 

Not completely dead?
Not completely dead? Photo: Esteban Felix
dollar

The Australian dollar has topped US76¢ for the first time in more than two months as the greenback continues to weaken on worries that the Trump administration's protectionist stance will include seeking a weaker currency.

Talk of trade wars has pushed the Aussie as high as US76.02¢ this morning, but it has since fallen back a bit to fetch US75.85¢.

Overnight, the US dollar spot index, which measures the greenback's value against a basket of major currencies, dropped below the mark of 100 for the first time since early December, falling as low as 99.89 before recovering slightly to 100.16.

Trump has focused on trade policy in his first days in office, officially pulling the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership overnight as well as threatening a "very major" border tax for companies who shift production out of the US.

His protectionist stance is worrying investors who had in the immediate aftermath of the US election focused more on his campaign-trail promises to boost economic growth, which had supported the US dollar.

"It's interesting that markets did not respond positively to a reaffirmation of lower taxes and looser regulation, reinforcing the impression that all the good news is discounted for now," ANZ said in a note this morning.

"As week one in office gets underway, there is a growing sense of scepticism, not helped by the tone of Friday's inaugural address and subsequent spat with the media."

Sentiment took another hit overnight when US Treasury secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin told senators that he would work to combat currency manipulation but would not give a clear answer on whether he views China as manipulating its yuan.

Traders said it was unlikely the Aussie would push much higher in the short term, as markets wait for tomorrow's fourth-quarter consumer price data.

Economists are predicting headline inflation of 0.7 per cent over the quarter and core inflation (ex volatile elements such as fuel prices) of 0.5 per cent, but a higher reading could add fuel to the Aussie's rally.

The Aussie is up more than 5 per cent this year.
The Aussie is up more than 5 per cent this year. 
I

McGrath shares have slumped 60 per cent over the past year following a dismal sharemarket float. But are its shares worth a punt? 

At least one of the brokers which underwrote its sharemarket float a year ago reckons the worst could be over - for now. Broker Bell Potter, along with investment bank JP Morgan underwrote the sharemarket listing of property agent McGrath a year ago. That IPO, at $2.10 a share, saw John McGrath pocket a handy $37 million.

He is still a shareholder, with 29 per cent of the capital, but cannot sell until after full year to June earnings are announced. He stepped back from running the company in August last year.

On Monday, McGrath said earnings in the second half to June would be "materially lower" than the first half which saw the shares punished, closing down 5.3 per cent at 81c after touching a new low of 71c. It blamed both a decline in property listings and the walk out of a large number of its sales team who have shifted to a start-up. McGrath shares are another 6 per cent lower at 76.5 cents this morning. 

Bell Potter told its clients that McGrath shares are a "hold" with a 86c a share 12-month price target. Until the trading update, it reckoned the shares were a buy worth $1.20.

"The key driver of the downgrades we have made to our McGrath forecasts over the past several months has been lower listing volumes which has been industry rather than company specific," the broker told clients in a research note. "The key driver of the downgrade today, however, is large agent churn which is company rather than industry specific.

"We are more concerned about the large agent churn rather than the low listing volumes as it implies an internal issue that puts at risk the leverage we perceived the company to have to a recovery in listing volumes."

Bell Potter says agent churn is more worrying than low listing volume.
Bell Potter says agent churn is more worrying than low listing volume. 
Tenants market: residential rents are barely budging.

Sydney real estate is so expensive the median is now $300,000 more than the second-highest priced capital in Australia, new data shows.

By the end of 2016, Sydney's median house price climbed more than 10 per cent to a record $1,123,991, Domain Group's rental and house price report released has found.

The strongest quarterly result over the year was December, with prices up 4.7 per cent in three months. This was a sharp contrast to December 2015, where prices fell 3 per cent to $1,011,283, Domain Group chief economist Andrew Wilson said.

"It was a strong finish to the year, with momentum from interest rate cuts in May and August and a resurgence of investor activity being felt,"  Wilson said.

Sydney's unit prices also recorded a strong result, up 2.9 per cent over the December quarter to $711,256, and up 6.3 per cent over 2016.

"The prospects are for growth again this year, but we'll unlikely get these high figures again with no changes likely to interest rates," Wilson said.

Meanwhile, the cost of renting an apartment in Sydney has fallen for the first time in two years.

The median asking rent for apartments, which is the figure advertised to tenants, fell by 1 per cent to $520 a week in December, Domain Group's Rent Report found. Despite the fall, apartment rents are still 2 per cent higher over the year.

Sydney's median house price has topped $1.1 million.
Sydney's median house price has topped $1.1 million. Photo: Mark Merton

Bellamy's former chief executive Laura McBain has resigned as a director of the embattled infant formula maker.

McBain will continue to remain employed by the company until March 31 to assist with "outstanding matters", Bellamy's said.

The departure comes as Bellamy's faces two possible class actions over possible breaches of its corporate disclosure responsibilities following December's shock trading update, which sent its share price into freefall.

Meanwhile, shares continue to drop, shedding another 1.3 per cent to $3.80 following yesterday's 4 per cent slide.

Former CEO Laura McBain has now resigned as a director of Bellamy's.
Former CEO Laura McBain has now resigned as a director of Bellamy's. Photo: Mark Jesser
Back to top
market open

Shares are nudging higher in early trade, pulled up by the big miners after commodity prices rose overnight and led by a rally in BlueScope, which upgraded its earnings forecast.

The ASX is up 0.2 per cent at 5624.6,defying a weak lead from Wall Street where investors were fretting about Donald Trump's protectionist trade stance.

But  the market mood remains brittle, with the US dollar and bond markets continuing to correct the big moves that followed the US election, CMC chief market analyst Ric Spooner notes.

"Markets tended to concentrate on the Trump administration's stimulus plans while discounting its trade protection plans in the period between the election and inauguration. In fact, the first couple of days of the new Presidency have seen the rhetoric weighted toward protectionist policies while little detail yet available on stimulus measures."

BHP and Rio are offering the moist support to the index, rising 1.3 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively, while BlueScope Steel has surged 8 per cent following this morning's profit upgrade.

Among the losers are insurers after global bond yields continued to fall, with Suncorp down 1.2 per cent and IAG losing 1.1 per cent.

The big banks are flat apart from ANZ which has dropped 0.4 per cent.

shares up

Shares in Resmed have jumped more than 5 per cent after the medical device maker lifted second-quarter revenue 17 per cent to $US530 million, helped by income from the Brightree business it acquired in 2016.

The company, which specialises in sleep disorder equipment, says revenue for the three months to December 31 rose 21 per cent in the Americas to $US326.8 million - but only 9 per cent once the Brightree home health software business was excluded.

Net income for the quarter was $US76.7 million, a 20 per cent decrease compared to the same period of the prior year. Non-GAAP net income was $US103.3 million, a 1 per cent increase compared to the prior year. 

Research and development expenses were $US38.2 million, or 7.2 per cent of revenue. R&D expenses increased by 32 per cent compared with the same period last year, or a 28 per cent increase on a constant currency basis.

IG

SPONSORED POST

The FX markets have again shown the biggest move across financial markets, specifically USD/JPY, which had already been reacting through Asia yesterday, says IG's Chris Weston:

The USD index (DXY) is down 0.6% on the session, largely as a result of good buying in the US fixed income market (the 10-year treasury is currently down six basis points at 2.40%) and for the technical minded folk out there we can see that it looks set to complete a fairly well-pronounced head and shoulders pattern. The wash-up is that pattern is the probability suggests the USD is going lower in the short-term.

This is good news for emerging markets and it's no doubt to the see the iShares MSCI Emerging Market ETF (EEM ETF) gaining 1.4% and breaking out. One for the radar, but it seems this ETF is going higher in the short-term.

USD/JPY is interesting as we have seen price under pressure and eyeing a break of the 18 January swing low, which sits at ¥112.57, and a break here takes us to ¥109.90. AUD/USD has not really pushed higher despite the broad USD weakness, with price trading in a range of $US0.7588 to $US0.7550. We can see price holding the five-day moving average at $US0.7555 and one suspects we will need to see tomorrow's core inflation print at or above 0.7% to push price through the recent highs and into $US0.7700 to $US0.7750, where things get very interesting.

GBP/USD has seen good buyers, with price breaking through $US1.2500 ahead of tonight's UK Supreme Court ruling on parliament's involvement in the Brexit process. Long positions are preferred here for $US1.2700. Short EUR/GBP looks interesting here as well. I would try for a move into GBP0.8500, with a stop above GBP0.8663.

The wash-up of the overnight leads is that we should see modest strength in the ASX 200, with a flat open in Japan. Market moving data is thin on the ground and that really ramps up tomorrow with Aussie Q4 inflation, but for now the big question is whether this early strength in the ASX 200 will be sold from around 10:15 AEDT.

Literally, every day from the 9th January early strength has been used by money managers to increase cash levels and by more aggressive traders to put on short positions. Short selling the market after the open and buying back before the official close has worked well of late, so will we see it work today? I suspect it might.

Here's more

Will the ASX manage to hold onto early gains or will we see the same pattern as in the past sessions?
Will the ASX manage to hold onto early gains or will we see the same pattern as in the past sessions? Photo: Bloomberg
shares up

Soaring steel prices are working their way into company earnings:  BlueScope has upgraded its underlying profit forecast by almost 18 per cent for the first half of 2016-17 as buoyant conditions in the US and improvements in the Australian steel business continue to flow through.

BlueScope said it now expected its underlying earnings before interest and tax for the six months ended December 31, 2016 to be around $600 million, compared with its previous guidance of at least $510 million.

The company's building products business in North America has also been making strong gains.

The new profit guidance represents growth of 160 per cent in profits compared with the first half in the previous financial year and continues the strong turnaround in the company's fortunes under chief executive Paul O'Malley, who has been at the helm since 2007.

BlueScope said the improved performance in the past few weeks since the company's last update at the annual general meeting on November 10 was mainly the result of stronger steel prices and spreads across the business, but which had particularly benefited the Australian Steel Products unit and the New Zealand and Pacific Steel operations.

Steel prices jumped last year.
Steel prices jumped last year. Photo: JASPER JUINEN
eye

Donald Trump has formally withdrawn the US from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, distancing America from its Asian allies, as China's influence in the region rises.

Fulfilling a campaign pledge to end American involvement in the 2015 pact, Trump signed an executive order in the Oval Office pulling the US out of the 12-nation TPP, a regional trade accord championed by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as vital for US economic and security leadership in Asia.

Trump, who wants to boost US manufacturing, said he would seek one-on-one trade deals with countries that would allow the United States to quickly terminate them in 30 days "if somebody misbehaves".

"We're going to stop the ridiculous trade deals that have taken everybody out of our country and taken companies out of our country," the Republican president said as he met with union leaders in the White House's Roosevelt Room.

The TPP accord, backed heavily by US business, was negotiated by former Democratic President Barack Obama's administration but never approved by Congress. It had been the main economic pillar of the Obama administration's "pivot" to the Asia-Pacific region to counter China.

Trump has sparked worries in Japan and elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific with his opposition to the TPP and his campaign demands for US allies to pay more for their security.

But his trade stance mirrors a growing feeling among Americans that international trade deals have hurt the US job market. Republicans have long held the view that free trade is a must, but that mood has been changing.

"It's going to be very difficult to fight that fight," said Lanhee Chen, a Hoover Institution fellow who was domestic policy adviser to 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. "Trump is reflecting a trend that has been apparent for many years."

Harry Kazianis, Director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest think tank in Washington, said Trump must now find an alternative way to reassure allies in Asia.

"This could include multiple bilateral trade agreements. Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam should be approached first as they are key to any new Asia strategy that President Trump will enact," he said.

Trump is also working to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement to provide more favorable terms to the United States, telling reporters he would meet leaders of NAFTA partners Mexico and Canada to get the process started.

The new president also met with a dozen American manufacturers at the White House on Monday, pledging to slash regulations and cut corporate taxes - but warning them he would take action on trade deals he felt were unfair.

He said those businesses that choose to move plants outside the country would pay a price. "We are going to be imposing a very major border tax on the product when it comes in," Trump said.

Trump is yet to provide specific policy details on how a border tax or tariffs would be imposed.

At his first meeting with manufacturing leaders including Australian expat and Dow Chemical chief Andrew Liveris and technology entrepreneur Elon Musk, Trump claimed "we think we can cut regulations by 75 per cent", "maybe more".

He outlined to the 12 manufacturing CEOs a vision to "massively cut" personal taxes and the corporate tax rate to 15 or 20 per cent.

Back to top