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The local sharemarket started the Trump era deep in the red, pulled down by a Brambles profit warning as well as general unease following the inauguration of the new US President.
The ASX dropped 0.8 per cent to a one-month low of 5611 points, just managing to hold onto the 5600-mark during the session.
"While we're not seeing the same state of panic of which ran rampant through global markets at this time last year, sentiment has definitely soured," said Gary Huxtable, client adviser at Atlantic Pacific Securities.
Huxtable said the change in sentiment is due to the unjustified euphoria towards our market towards the end of last year, particularly within the banking sector. The unwinding of deflation fears and light volumes over the holidays also contributed to it.
He added: "Whilst some initial profit taking was to be expected, the fact our market has failed to find any level of support over the last couple of weeks would be starting to concern some investors."
It didn't help sentiment that Brambles shocked the market with a profit warning this morning, sliding 15.8 per cent to $10.34, by far the biggest loser on the index.
CSL gave back some of last week's strong gains, losing 2.7 per cent, another big headwind for the ASX, while troubled Bellamy's sank a further 4 per cent following news that litigation funder IMF Bentham has agreed to back a class action by Bellamy's shareholders who believe the infant formula company kept them in the dark over its financial performance.
The big four banks all ended about 0.3 per cent lower, after starting the day in the black.
Among the day's winners were gold miners as investors sought the precious metal's safe haven status. Evolution Mining was the top gainer among the biggest 200 stocks, rising 3.2 per cent, while Newcrest added 1.7 per cent.
According to Huxtable, the next couple of sessions will be of great importance, as the 5600 level remains as a "beacon of hope" for those who have seen their profits erode over the last couple of weeks.
Is Donald Trump's reflation sustainable? asks Satyajit Das:
A 10 per cent stock-market rally, higher real asset prices and higher bond rates clearly reflect expectations of tax cuts and stimulus-driven inflation. Policy makers hope this trend will continue, and will do their best to sustain it.
Worldwide non-financial debt is now about $US152 trillion, or 225 per cent of gross domestic product. In the absence of default or strong growth, the easiest way out of that burden is inflation. Inflated earnings would make fixed servicing commitments manageable, reduce the purchasing power of the debt and boost the value of real assets used to secure borrowings, thereby reducing the risk of loan losses.
Falling prices and high debt, moreover, are a potentially toxic combination. Deflation may encourage deferral of spending, reducing economic activity. It would reduce income, revenue and tax receipts, making it more difficult to service debt, which would also increase in real terms.
But there's reason to doubt that governments can generate inflation as they assume they can. For one thing, inflation has side effects, secretly transferring wealth from savers to borrowers, particularly when interest rates are held artificially low as they have been since 2009. Higher prices don't benefit those on fixed incomes, such as retirees.
In Japan, falling prices have helped preserve the purchasing power of those whose incomes have remained static or shrunk. Such effects will make sustaining higher prices politically difficult.
Economic forces will make it harder still. In the latter half of 2016, inflation rates in developed economies rose from nearly 0 per cent to 0.5 per cent. Inflation expectations increased sharply, to 1.5 per cent. But these increases are misleading.
One problem is that the low rate of inflation in recent years has distorted the models used to assess real price levels, meaning that today's favourable readings may be illusory. Another is that a rebound in commodity prices, especially oil, may be short-lived.
Here's the whole article at Bloomberg
Sharemarkets across the region are mixed after Donald Trump struck a protectionist tone in his inauguration speech, offsetting optimism that he will follow through on promises of tax cuts and other stimulus.
Local stocks are down 0.8 per cent while Japan's Nikkei has dropped 1.1 per cent, the worst performer in the region, after the Trump administration, on its first day in office, declared its intention to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a 12-nation trade pact that Japan and Australia also have signed up for.
Other Asian markets are more resilient, however, in part due to a relief that there were no negative surprises, with Trump refraining from labelling China as a currency manipulator for now, an accusation he made while campaigning.
The Shanghai Composite has added 0.8 per cent, Hong Kong shares are up 0.1 per cent, Taiwan shares have gained 1 per cent and Korean shares are flat. US stock futures, meanwhile, have dipped 0.2 per cent, erasing gains made on Friday.
In his inaugural address, Trump pledged to end what he called an "American carnage" of rusted factories and vowed to put "America first," laying out two simple rules - buy American and hire American. Trump also said on Sunday he plans talks soon with the leaders of Canada and Mexico to begin renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
"The market is getting nervous about the possibility that the world's trade might shrink," said Koichi Yoshikawa, executive director of financial markets at Standard Chartered Bank.
"Many of his policies, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending, need approval from the Senate and that (may not be) easy," he said. "The markets that had been led by expectations on his policy since the election are now the dragged down by the reality."
Iron ore is facing a sharp decline as higher-grade supplies from Brazil and Australia are set to
increase, according to Citi, which combined its forecast for a second-half tumble with upgrades to the bank's outlook in the opening quarters of the year.
Recent gains have been supported by a deficit in higher-grade material, analyst Ed Morse said in a note. The bank boosted its first-quarter forecast to $US77 a tonne from $US60, raised the second-quarter call to $US70 from $US57, while holding the fourth-quarter figure at $US53.
Iron ore surged more than 80 per cent last year as China's steel output beat expectations after government stimulus boosted consumption. The rally was supported by a jump in coal prices,
which increased mills' demand for higher-grade ore to improve efficiency. China's push to clamp down on pollution has also added to demand for premium products, according to Citi.
The bank expects "prices to correct down sharply in the second half, with 50 to 60 million tonnes a year of high-grade ore supply from Brazil and Australia ramping up," it said in the note. "Chinese iron ore output may also rise," it added, citing a forecast from MySteel for a 15 million tonne increase.
Spot iron ore lost 0.7 per cent to $US80.41 a tonne on Friday, while futures in Dalian are down more than 2 per cent today in slow trade ahead of the Chinese new year celebrations, which begin on Friday.
"Everyone's off already," said a trader in Singapore, adding that activity in the physical market was also slow.
"But we are seeing outflow of money from commodities to equities. Transacting commodities futures in China is high-cost and high-margin and the government is relaxing requirements on equities futures," he said.
Gold prices have risen to the highest in two months as investors seek safer assets amid uncertainty around the economic policies of new US President Donald Trump and as the US dollar declines against other major currencies.
Spot gold has added 0.7 per cent to $US1217.81 per ounce, after earlier touching a high of $US1219.43, the most since November 22. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell for a second day by 0.4 per cent to 100.310.
Donald Trump, who took power as the 45th president of the United States on Friday, pledged to end the "American carnage" of social and economic woes in an inaugural address that was a populist and nationalist rallying cry, prompting investor concern about protectionist trade policies.
With the lack of a clear policy direction from Trump, the market movement is a sign that risk aversion is back on the table, OCBC analyst Barnabas Gan said.
"All this means is that investors could now start to coalesce around the notion that the Fed will stay on hold for longer than expected, which in turn should be constructive for gold," INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir said.
The rise in gold prices has pushed the stocks of local gold miners higher, with the All Ords gold index rising 1.7 per cent.
Donald Trump's administration may be on course for a fraught relationship with China amid disputes over trade policy, according to Citi, which warned the new US government could introduce more protectionist measures against manufactured goods from Asia's top economy.
"There are growing signs that the Trump administration is heading for antagonistic relations with China," the bank said in a report that examined how commodities including metals and farm goods may fare in the upcoming lunar year. While the bank stuck with its view that a trade war could be avoided, it did anticipate "increasing trade frictions" between the two.
Trump made trade relations a central theme of his election campaign, maintaining that the US was getting a raw deal from agreements ranging from Nafta to the putative Trans-Pacific Partnership. The new President hammered on an "America First" message in his inauguration speech, and his administration immediately vowed to withdraw from the Pacific deal.
"We are more likely to see the US aggressively targeting China in sectors where the US runs a large deficit with China or with significant SOE presence," Citi said, using initials for state-owned enterprises. China has options to react, including bringing cases to the World Trade Organisation, using countervailing measures and possibly banning exports of strategically important commodities such as rare earths, it said.
Trump has nominated billionaire investor Wilbur Ross for commerce secretary. In testimony on Wednesday in Washington before the Senate Commerce Committee, Ross called China the most protectionist of the world's major economies and vowed to level the playing field with the Chinese on trade, especially in reducing overcapacity in its steel industry.
Trump has pledged to use "every lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes" with China, including tariffs. He once broached a tax of 45 per cent on Chinese imports, then denied bringing it up. Still, the President has already walked back from some criticisms and so far hasn't followed up on a pledge to label China a currency manipulator on his first day in office.
The US dollar remains on the back foot, slipping more than 1 per cent against the yen, as investors lock in gains on the greenback's recent rise while they wait for US President Donald Trump to offer details of his promised stimulus.
The US dollar fell as low as 113.435 yen, and was last down 1 per cent at 113.505, while the Aussie is trading close to a two-month high against the greenback, at US75.70¢.
"A decisive move above the 115 figure would signal that the Trump trade is back on and markets are once again betting on substantial US growth, but a failure here would be a sign that the early enthusiasm for Trump is starting to wane," said BK Asset Management managing director of FX strategy Boris Schlossberg.
The Aussie posted its fourth straight weekly gain last week and is up more than 5 per cent so far in January, making it one of the best-performing major currencies this year.
That is a marked turnaround from late December when it hit a seven-month trough of US71.60¢ as the US dollar rode high on wagers that Trump's policies would stoke US inflation.
That reflation trade seems to have faltered because Trump has since winning the Nov.8 election held back any details of his economic policies.
Investors had been looking to Trump to highlight his plans for fiscal spending, tax cuts and regulatory reforms in Friday's inaugural speech. He focused instead on "America first" campaign catchphrases.
"Caution is the theme for the week as the market will be very susceptible to Trump and his team's policy announcements," said NAB currency strategist Rodrigo Catril. "Whether Trump achieves prosperity for America remains to be seen. From a global perspective, while his policies could result in America getting a bigger share of the pie, the pie is unlikely to become bigger if global trade declines."
Speculators reduced long bets on the US dollar for a second straight week last week, as investors continued to pare back overextended positions on the greenback and worried about Trump's trade and currency policies.
For January, the dollar index has fallen 1.3 per cent so far, on track for its weakest monthly performance since March last year.
"If the US dollar continues to weaken, we're rapidly running out of room and dollar bulls may be forced into a full-fledged capitulation, which has yet to take place at current levels," said John Hardy, head of forex strategy at Saxo Bank. "If the dollar firms, on the other hand, the gains could come quickly as frustrated bulls have been without a case, ironically since the Fed's rate hike in December, which marked the end of the most recent dollar advance."
It was not the high note Tom Gorman wanted to end his seven-year stint running logistics giant Brambles on, the AFR's Michael Smith comments:
The world's largest pallet operator issued a sharp earnings downgrade after an abrupt destocking by US retailers forced it to cover the costs of moving and storing returned pallets in December. The news, which erodes earnings in its most important market, sent Brambles shares down more than 15 per cent.
Gorman, who steps down as chief executive in February, said he was "embarrassed" by the earnings downgrade which he initially said came at the worst possible time for him personally. In a call to investors, he later apologised for that remark but said he was "personally gutted" because he prided himself on his reputation with the investment community for delivering on his promises.
Gorman's contrition is rare for a chief executive of a major company but is a reflection of the former Ford Australia chief's integrity and his disappointment at breaking a seven-year track record of delivering for his shareholders. Gorman took on Brambles at a time when the company was rebuilding after years of dysfunction.
In an interview with this columnist in 2009, Gorman said he wanted to break with tradition and be the most boring chief executive in the company's history – a quip at the pallet operator's colourful history and a revolving door of chief executives. He gave the company stability at a time when Brambles had had five chief executive changes in eight years.
He made good on his promise. Until Monday's profit warning, Brambles shares had increased around 70 per cent since Gorman became chief executive in 2009.
Here's a recap of today's session: shares have dropped to a one-month low, as industrial and healthcare stocks push the index down and Brambles disappointed by slashing its annual profit forecast.
The industrial sector is the worst performer as supply-chain logistics company Brambles dived to its lowest in more than 11 months. The company said its annual constant-currency sales revenue and underlying profit growth would be below its current guidance range.
"We had some positive leads, but gains have quickly evaporated," said Christopher Conway, head of research and trading at Australian Stock Report. "I think local traders will now be more focused on the rest of the US earnings season and next month's Australian earnings. The Trump presidency will sort of recede into the background," he added.
Healthcare stocks moved into the red with shares of CSL posting their biggest percentage loss in more than a week. Conway said traders were booking some profit from CSL after it rose quite significantly in the last two sessions.
Materials have also posted losses, tracking weak metal prices. BlueScope Steel has shed 1.7 per cent and nickel miner Western Areas has dropped 4.2 per cent.
Energy stocks are offering some support as prices edge up after energy ministers of OPEC and non-OPEC countries applauded a strong start to output cuts.
Oil majors Caltex and Woodside Petroleum have added 0.8 per cent and 0.6 per cent each.
Financials have lost their initial momentum with the big four banks paring some of their early gains.
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Suncorp says claims from natural disasters will exceed its budget for such payouts by $40 million in the first half, after last year's storms in Victoria and South Australia, and the earthquake in Kaikoura in New Zealand.
The insurer said its natural hazard claim costs for the December half would be $350 million, which is $40 million above its "allowance," or projection for how much it will spend on these claims.
It also said its financial results next month will include a further NZ$18 million cost for new claims that have emerged from the New Zealand Earthquake Commission relating to the from the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes.
Bell Potter analyst TS Lim said the natural disaster claims may be higher than the market had expected.
"A lot of people would have expected $20 to $30 million,because we did not have many cyclones in the first half," Lim said.
Suncorp shares are down 2.2 per cent to $13.05. Suncorp sought to protect its bottom line from the effects of natural disasters last August, buying extra reinsurance cover for this financial year.
Village Roadshow shares have come under pressure after it warned the accident at Ardent Leisure's Dreamworld in October last year has hurt local attendance at its Gold Coast and Sydney theme parks over the key summer period.
Village Roadshow, which owns Wet 'n' Wild in Sydney and on the Gold Coast, as well as Warner Bros Movie World and Sea World, said the company's theme parks had a solid start to the 2017 financial year prior to the Dreamworld tragedy.
"During the key trading period of December 2016, and January 2017, ticket sales have remained solid when compared with the prior corresponding period. International and interstate visitation remains in line with the prior year," Village said in a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange.
"However, attendance by the local Queensland market which previously represented approximately 60 per cent of attendances, has declined by more than 12 per cent on the prior year since the Dreamworld incident. Wet'n'Wild Sydney appears to have been similarly affected by the incident.
"Notwithstanding a minimal impact on ticket sales revenue, the decline in attendance has resulted in deterioration in food and beverage, retail and other in-park revenue. The ongoing impact of the Dreamworld incident will become clearer over the coming weeks."
Shares have plunged more than 8 per cent to $4.09.
The fund managers who reluctantly made headlines shorting Platinum Asset Management last year think that Woolworths will again be challenged in 2017 as it finds lean rewards in being the turnaround star of a hard-fought industry.
Jack Lowenstein and Chad Slater, of Morphic Asset Management, admit it's not the edgiest idea in the world, but "being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian is never a good trade," says Slater.
The Woolworths debate has evolved to one of margin outlook, they say. The first phase of the short was when the company was "in a mess, and they didn't recognise it," says Lowenstein. That part is over. "Now, they're in the phase where they're definitely making some progress operationally," but while Woolworths is improving, the industry is not.
In Morphic's opinion, the cost of that turnaround is going to be loss of margin and loss of market share. Translating the Orwellian speak of the retail industry, "We can now afford to reduce margins without our bankers getting scared, that's what invest in price means," Lowenstein argues.
"There's nowhere in the world where you've got a low-cost operator where you don't earn 3 to 3.5 per cent and if you put that in your DCF" - the discounted cashflow model - "it's so sensitive, you get a $12 to $15 stock price," says Slater. "What we're arguing over is where do margins settle in the medium term?"
Read more on their investment ideas at the AFR
Any increase in optimism about Australia's economic outlook based on recent events in US politics and the commodity markets may prove shortlived, global asset manager AllianceBernstein says.
"We just don't see any prospect of a new commodities boom helping to boost the Australian economy," said senior economist Guy Bruten. "Instead our outlook continues to be dominated by risks to the housing sector - and these will increase in 2017."
AB is forecasting 1.9 per cent GDP growth for Australia this year, down from the 2.3 per cent it forecast for 2016, and well below the 2.6 per cent median forecast among economists for 2017, according to Bloomberg.
"There was a surge in commodity prices towards the end of last year, an event that many people typically associate with an improvement in global growth, and optimism was further boosted by Trump's election and expectations that he will implement pro-growth policies," he said.
But this euphoria tended to overlook the fact that economic data had already become more positive.
"Purchasing Managers' Index data and global export growth data actually began to improve from August last year," said Bruten. "Commodity prices would have been further helped by a dramatic reduction in production capacity in China and a surge in speculative building activity there, too."
Commodity prices have already started to come back, however, as has the climb in US Treasury yields, which had been triggered by expectations that Trump's promise of fiscal stimulus to lift the US economy would result in stronger growth and a resurgence in inflation.
Markets have moderated their positive response to Trump's victory while they await further details of his policies, and also assess how successful he might be in implementing them. His policies include a more protectionist stance on trade, which would be a negative for commodities and other exports, he noted.
Meanwhile, hopes that Australia's housing sector will continue to take up some of the slack created by the end of the commodities boom were fading, said Bruten.
"We've been saying for some time that housing would cease to be a tailwind for the Australian economy, and we're already starting to see signs of it becoming a headwind, with apartment sector approvals declining sharply and rents under downward pressure.
"In light of this we regard recent talk of higher interest rates in Australia next year or even in the second half of 2017 as somewhat premature," said Bruten. "We still expect a disorderly adjustment in the housing sector later this year that could cause the RBA to cut interest rates further."
Ruralco shares have surged more than 8 per cent to $2.98 after the agribusiness said it has surpassed last year's record first-quarter earnings.
The company says live export volumes have increased following a restructure of the unit, with strong volumes and prices - and a recent uplift in the wool market - expected to continue.
Ruralco, which in 2016 reported a 69 per cent fall in full-year profit due to divestments and the cost of restructuring, said increased plantings of cotton and rice boosted sales of agricultural chemicals and pre-season fertiliser.
However, the company pointed out that the same rainfall that aided plantings had led to a slower-than-expected start to the year in its water infrastructure business.
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The woes confronting troubled infant milk formula group Bellamy's Australia have deepened with the confirmation of a class action from disgruntled investors in the wake of the company's recent upheavals.
The news put the company's shares under renewed pressure, falling back as much as 5 per cent to $3.81. They're currently down 3.7 per cent.
Litigation funder IMF Bentham said it will finance an action planned by Slater and Gordon Lawyers.
"The claims relate to alleged misleading or deceptive conduct and an alleged breach by Bellamy's of its continuous disclosure requirements in connection with its trading prospects and future earnings performance during the period between 14 April 2016 to 9 December 2016," it said.
IMF Bentham said it will fund the class action "on a conditional basis" ahead of a decision to proceed with the action, or not.
Jan Cameron, a co-founder of Bellamy's who is leading a push to unseat the four independent directors of Bellamy's, and who also has the chairman in her sights, said she is not participating in the class action, since it relates to shareholders who acquired shares during the six months prior to the December 9 suspension of sharemarket trading in the company's shares.
Cameron, who also co-founded the clothing retailer Kathmandu, said she will be seeking to force Bellamy's to re-issue a letter it sent to shareholders last week, since she claims the letter contains "material inaccuracies".
The matter is with her legal team with a letter likely to be sent to Bellamy's over the matter in the next few days. If there is not a redrafting of the letter she said litigation may ensue which could delay the planned holding of a shareholder meeting in late February to consider a board spill.
Shares are off to a soggy start, pulled down by steep losses in Brambles following its profit warning.
The ASX is down 0.1 per cent at 5651.9, defying predictions for a solid start after Wall Street rose for the first time on an inauguration day in 50 years.
Brambles shares have plunged more than 14 per cent in early trade after the supply chain logistics group said it expects full-year results to be below its previous guidance range of 7 to 9 per cent for sales revenue and 9-11 per cent for underlying profit.
"Logistics group Brambles added to investor fears with its pre-market earnings downgrade," said CMC chief market strategist Michael McCarthy. "An important driver of the downgrade is de-stocking by US customers. The end of the Australian 'silly season' may see local investors selling today ahead of the return of regular trading conditions."
Banks are offsetting steeper losses in the ASX, with the big four all rising around 0.6 per cent.
CSL is shedding some of last week's strong gains following its profit upgrade, slipping 2.5 per cent.
Shares in one of the country's largest real estate agents, McGrath, have dived after it signalled that second half revenues will fall below first half estimates, providing further confirmation that the tide is going out on the residential property boom.
The company doesn't provide earnings forecasts, although it did state that analysts' estimates of its full year profit outlook are too optimistic.
The downgrade resulted in the shares slump to new lows in opening trading, falling a heavy 16 per cent to just 72c - a far cry from the $2.10 the shares were sold at when it went public a year ago. The shares have never traded above that price, finishing trading last week at 85.5c. In August, John McGrath, who founded the company in 1988, stepped down as CEO.
"The unprecedented low volumes of listings as a per cent of total housing stock noted in the chairman's address [to the annual shareholder meeting] in November is not yet showing signs of improvement," the company notified the stock exchange this morning.
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The weekend news flow has centred on Donald Trump's inauguration, Sean Spicer's rather angry press conference and the administration's strategy of withdrawing from TPP, IG's Chris Weston writes:
None of these events are immediately market moving in themselves and the debate that rages through markets (above all others in my opinion) is whether "Trumponomics" truly generates the levels of animal spirits and increases in investment and productivity to create 4% growth and 2.5 million jobs (over the coming decade).
The answer to dynamic will take time to materialise, although we have seen some positive trends in small business confidence and the new orders sub-component of the US services and manufacturing ISM. With this in mind, US growth will be in focus this week, although as I say the market is more concerned with future growth, specifically when we have a far clearer idea on the fiscal policies and the Republican plans actually start to kick in.
The current consensus for Fridays Q4 GDP print sits at 2.1%, which is in-line with the New York Fed's NowCast model, although the Atlanta Fed's model is a more impressive 2.8%. While there is much data still to come before the Q1 print is released the NY Fed have 2.66% set at this stage.
The guide for markets continues to come from the US fixed-income market, where on Friday there was strong indecision from both the bull and bear camp. Yields are starting to creep higher again, but whether there is the impetus to head towards the 15 December high of 2.63% is another thing. The USD is of course key for global markets, especially when the world (source: BIS) some $US55 trillion in US denominated debt and while the USD will follow yields in the bond market we can also see the USD index still holding the 100 level.
Interestingly, we can see US five-year inflation expectations still holding up nicely at 2.06% and I see this as a good guide on all things Trump.
The S&P 500 is moving almost perfectly sideways, as highlighted by the flat move in the 20-day moving average. A two standard deviation move either side of this short-term average gives us a trading range this week of 2284 to 2246 and this should contain moves for now, especially with the RSI in the middle of the range and implied volatility at such low levels. The US equity market is a range trader's paradise and one questions whether earnings could throw the broader index around a bit more this week with 29% of the S&P 500 market cap reporting.
With around 13% of US corporates having reported thus far, we have seen 74% beating on the earnings line (by an average of 3.4%) and 47% on sales. As a whole, we have seen 3.4% aggregate earnings growth and it won't surprise this is largely driven by the financials where we have seen EPS growth of 9.3%.
Australia set to join global reflation
With inflation increasing in Europe, the UK, US and China, we address whether Australia will join this growing list and what could it mean for the RBA. (This video was produced in commercial partnership between Fairfax Media and IG Markets)
Another day, another profit warning: Brambles has downgraded its full-year earnings guidance on the back of revenue and cost pressures in North America.
Brambles says that, taking into account currency fluctuations - 60 per cent of the group's revenue is generated in currencies other than the US dollar - it expects first-half sales revenue will be up 5 per cent and underlying profit will be up 3 per cent.
The supply chain logistics group said that in light of those results it expects full-year results to be below its previous guidance range of 7 to 9 per cent for sales revenue and 9-11 per cent for underlying profit.
The company is best known for its CHEP pallets and IFCO reusable containers used by a range of retailers and wholesalers.
Chief executive Tom Gorman said US retailer destocking, which predominantly occurred towards the end of the half, pushed up costs and depressed revenue for the North American division.
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