![Trump views himself as a disrupter against the status quo of Washington.](/content/dam/images/g/t/v/g/6/n/image.related.afrArticleLead.620x350.gttxk8.png/1484898781154.jpg)
![](/web/20170120084019im_/http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/1/4/4/7/3/d/image.imgtype.afrAuthorAvatar.120x120.png/1435474325700.png)
As the reality sets in that Donald Trump, the brash-talking real estate billionaire and Washington outsider will be sworn in as the 45th President, the United States – and the entire world – has entered unchartered waters.
Never in modern history has there been so much uncertainty, controversy and reservations about a new commander in chief.
A former celebrity TV star swept to power on a populist and anti-establishment wave, Trump is the first will be the president without experience in public office or the military.
He will receive the codes to nuclear weapons and be in charge of the world's most powerful military.
![](/content/dam/images/g/t/v/n/j/2/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1484895110668.png)
A prolific social media commentator, Trump will shift from "Monday morning quarterbacking" (an American football analogy for an armchair critic who assails players after the game) to the key player making the big decisions.
William Ruger, a vice-president for research and policy at the libertarian Charles Koch Institute, says it is "fool's gold" to make predictions.
"It's a little bit Forrest Gump motto here, 'It's like a box of chocolates, you're not sure what you're going to get'," Ruger says.
"With Trump, who knows what will happen. There is probably a higher upside and a lower downside, so there's greater variance there."
Filled with hope
![The incoming first lady Melania Trump arrives in Washington, the day before inauguration.](/content/dam/images/g/t/v/4/6/p/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1484895110728.jpg)
The Trump supporters who descend on Washington for the inauguration ceremony are filled with hope that he will fulfil a pledge to "Make America Great Again" by boosting jobs and wages, improving America's international standing and restoring what they see as traditional American values.
Other observers in America, and internationally, are instilled with fear.
Whatever one's personal feelings, the reality is Trump will be president for the next four years.
It is time for him to govern as a serious leader.
![Donald Trump sees the world in terms of winners and losers.](/content/dam/images/g/t/v/q/d/w/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1484895110556.jpg)
As a defeated Hillary Clinton said the day after her surprise election loss, "We owe him an open mind and a chance to lead."
Pointedly, Clinton expressed hope that her divisive opponent – who scored 2.9 million fewer votes than her but won the 50-state electoral college – would be "a successful president for all Americans".
Since then Trump's unconventional style as president-elect has given clues, some ominous, about how he might behave as president.
What can be gleaned through his actions as a real estate wheeler and dealer and new politician is that he will negotiate and bargain deals.
![Incoming President Donald Trump with Vice President-elect Mike Pence participate in a wreath-laying ceremony at ...](/content/dam/images/g/t/v/7/m/t/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1484895110790.jpg)
Peter Rough, a fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington and former Republican National Committee staffer, says Trump will seek to maximise his leverage and options in negotiations.
"I think Donald Trump is trying to position himself by putting as many balls in the air as aggressively and strongly as he can to reach a compromise," Rough says.
Trump's Twitter bully pulpit
Via his Twitter bully pulpit, Trump has brow beaten businesses such as Ford and airconditioning maker Carrier into cancelling plans to move manufacturing factories and jobs to Mexico.
![President-elect Donald Trump stands with his family during the "Make America Great Again Welcome Concert" at the Lincoln ...](/content/dam/images/g/t/v/7/m/d/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1484895110862.jpg)
The New York businessman has made clear the US will take a far harder line against China on international trade, diplomacy and security in the South China Sea.
Conversely, he will seek warmer ties with Russia, a strategy that was initially tried by the most two recent presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, before Vladimir Putin broke the olive branch.
Trump will pull out of trade deals including the Trans-Pacific Partnership and renegotiate another regional agreement with Mexico and Canada.
A European diplomat in Washington this week privately likened Trump to a rug salesman at a bustling market in the Middle East.
"He'll start by trying to sell you a rug for $1000, when you know it's only worth less than half of that. But if Trump can get at least $500 for the carpet, he'll cut a deal and boast how he is a big "winner".
Trump views himself as a disrupter against the status quo of Washington and international norms, openly questioning security alliances and America's recognition of the One China policy on Taiwan.
Robert Vastine, a former deputy assistant secretary of the US Treasury for international trade, says Trump is trying to "open up the game".
"He is looking for wiggle room, ways to move the ball, create opportunities and openings that didn't exist."
Winners and losers
Trump sees the world in terms of winners and losers.
Whether hard-nosed business negotiation skills can be successfully transferred to nuanced public policy debates remains to be seen.
Foreign allies value consistency and predictability in a partner. But does Trump have an overarching strategy? And will his transactional approach put at risk a coherent framework? And many Washington officials ask how will the impulsive mogul respond to unforseen events and crises at home or abroad.
Among such uncertainties one thing is clear: while Trump will command unrivalled power, the office of the president is more than the man himself. The administration's ultimate successes or failure will also hinge on the people around him. And Trump's cabinet nominees are not shrinking violets.
He has tapped at least three billionaires, five former chief executives and several others with a background on Wall Street, in investing and in business.
More than half of the cabinet selections, such as former ExxonMobil chief Rex Tillerson, have never been elected officials or run for public office.
How this group of strong-willed individuals moulds together to advise the president on important domestic and international policies will be pertinent.
In the White House, chief strategist Steve Bannon, son-in-law Jared Kushner and chief of staff Reince Priebus will contend to be key influencers.
National security adviser Michael Flynn has called Islam a "cancer" and he's behind Trump's push to fight Islamic State terrorism in partnership with Russia.
Flynn's and Trump's apparent soft spot for Russia appears to be at odds with defence secretary nominee James Mattis, who has labelled Moscow an "adversary".
Mattis and secretary of state nominee Tillerson support the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which Trump has ridiculed as "obsolete".
Kathleen Hicks, a former senior Pentagon official and now the Henry A. Kissinger chair at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, says there is likely to be a "multiple-axis power struggle" between Trump's team and "some kind of reckoning".
"Everything to date that we know from the operating style of Trump as a businessman, candidate and in transition as a president-elect, he kind of likes the unpredictability and chaos, before he is the tie-breaker decision maker," she says.
Considered through another lens, the diverse group of competing voices around Trump may be healthy to rigorously assess potential policy decisions.
"I remember in 2009 the incoming Obama administration had its differences and that was praised as a team of rivals who were going to co-exist, there would be friction points but that's healthy for the presidency because the Bush administration hadn't had an open decision-making process," Rough says.
"So I think we should give them a chance to see how these different players work together."
Key gateway
Incoming Vice-President Mike Pence, a former Indiana governor and experienced congressman, will prove pivotal.
Pence, who could become one of the most powerful vice-presidents in history given Trump's political inexperience, will be the key gateway to negotiating with Congress about legislation.
Already Trump has had a fraught relationship with Republican congressional leaders, hitting out against their push to investigate alleged Russian hacking interference in the election that intelligence agencies believe was aimed at hurting Clinton and helping Trump win.
Trump and the House speaker, Republican Paul Ryan, have butted heads repeatedly during and since the campaign, with the president-elect this week saying he was not keen on the revolutionary "border adjustment tax" for companies proposed in the House Republican blueprint.
While Republicans control Congress, they do not have a "super majority" 60 seats in the Senate to overcome opposition filibusters like Obama did in his first two years.
Trump needs Democratic support to overcome filibusters and pass legislation, given there are 52 Republicans in the 100-seat Senate.
The Trump presidency is sure to be a wild ride, probably like no other.
"I wouldn't try to guess how that rollercoaster ends," Hicks says.
"Hopefully we all land safely at the end and it was a great ride, but I think it's at high risk."
Read next: How Donald Trump will spend his first day in office