And for this one I’ll use the Q&A format I’d used in some earlier pieces about the incoming Trump administration.
I knew you’d be back!
Yes, fine. Let’s get to it.
How do you feel about Trump taking office on Friday?
I’m sort of relieved.
Bwuh?
Look, we’ve known this day was coming for two and a half months and in all the time people have maintained a certain level of freakout I’ve ultimately found wearying. I’m pretty much like: He’s going to be president? Fine, let’s get to it, because this waiting shit is boring the fuck out of me. I mean, we’re gonna fight, yeah? Then let’s fight, already.
What do you think will happen?
To the extent that the Trump administration has a strategy at all, which is honestly an open question, I think it will be a hundred-day dash to gut the infrastructure of government in the hopes of overwhelming everyone who would complain — a sort of Gish Gallop of bad governance, if you will.
Will it work?
It might! I think a lot of people opposed to the Trump administration are still in oh shit oh shit oh shit mode, as opposed to fuck you, let’s do this thing mode. Trump and his agglomerated assemblage of assholes are hoping the left (which in this case would include large swaths of the middle) are still shell-shocked and/or content to be a circular firing squad rather than focusing fire on them. On the other hand, those marches on Saturday are a very nice declaration of intent, and people certainly seem to be burning up their congresspeople’s phones. So we’ll see.
Be that as it may, Trump will be president and his administration will basically get to make all the opening moves. That’s what happens when you win the presidency. No matter what, some damage will be done. People are going to have to push back against that damage, not move forward with other things.
And how do you feel about that?
I mean, it is what it is. Trump won the presidency. He’s an incompetent. There’s nothing to be done about that now, so we have to get on with keeping the damage to a bare minimum. I don’t feel good about that, but I don’t feel bad about making the decision that for the next few years, some portion of my life will be spent loudly opposing bad governance and pissant authoritarianism. In fact, I feel just fine about that. I would be ashamed to do otherwise.
What would you say to the people who are still in oh shit oh shit oh shit mode?
Leaving aside the folks who are genuinely depressed and focusing on the ones who are just merely wringing their hands at this point: Time to get over that shit now. I think there’s still a bit of a “somebody do something” mentality, in which the hand-wringers are somewhat passively hoping someone else will solve this problem.
Thing is: There is no someone else. No one is coming to save us from Trump and his merry band of egregious nincompoops. If there is saving to be done, it comes from us, or not at all. Be the “someone else” you want to see in this world. Because otherwise you’re leaving it to the horde of racists and bigots following in Trump’s wake. And that’s not acceptable.
At the very least, if you can’t get out of oh shit oh shit oh shit mode, then make goddamn sure you’re not making things harder for the people who are stepping up. I think it’s time to realize that we’re in a “perfect is the enemy of good” situation.
What do you mean?
Well, for example, right about now there are a lot of politically and socially conservative folks who are aghast at the fact of a Trump presidency and who recognize that he represents a clear danger to the Republic. What do I think about these conservatives, who I might otherwise have almost no political overlap with? I think: Hello, ally. In this fight and in this moment they and I have a common goal — making sure our system of governance isn’t completely tubed by an insecure vulgarian — and I’m okay with focusing on that goal right now. After that’s done, then we can get back to yelling at each other on every other topic. Heck, we can yell at each other while we focus on our common goal! They are important topics. But holding the line against Trump is more important.
Hello I am a Trump supporter!
Yes?
Isn’t it possible that Trump could be a good president and bring back jobs and make people happy and be popular?
Sure, although bluntly there’s nothing he’s done since the election that indicates that. Yelling at businesses on Twitter isn’t ultimately likely to be a viable domestic strategy, and so far his foreign strategy is to goatse himself so that Vladimir Putin can slide his arm up to the pits and operate Trump’s mouth with his hand. Likewise his cabinet choices don’t inspire confidence; they largely either don’t seem to understand what job they’re up for, or they seem to approach the positions like they were corporate raiders, or both. Meanwhile, the GOP congress is beavering away at their plan to punt millions off of medical insurance immediately, and make it more difficult for everyone else to keep the insurance they have.
But, hey, as a member of the 1% at least I will get a big fat tax cut! Thanks, guys!
Now, Trump does seem to have a rudimentary jobs plan, which calls for building out the country’s infrastructure, and you know what? I think creating jobs by fixing our crumbling roads and bridges and such is a very fine idea, in principle. I don’t suspect that Trump’s version of it at the moment is that great — by all indications it’s mostly a call to the trough for corporations — but I will allow that a massive jobs bill, suitably tuned, could put him in good stead with the average voter.
Will this make him a good president? Not likely, unless other aspects of his administration (and his personality) changed greatly. But I’m not going to deny there are ways he can be popular, which for him might be enough.
So do you really think Trump is a puppet of Vladimir Putin?
No, if we’re talking like a Russian version of a Manchurian Candidate, or a captive of salacious pee videos. But do I think Russia (under Putin’s orders) went all in to attempt to influence the election, and Putin, who is manifestly smarter and more manipulative than Trump, is happy to flatter the incoming president and maneuver him in such away that Trump’s own predilections, in terms of personality and temperament, serve his needs. Trump is being used by Putin, certainly. And I also think it’s likely that Trump’s own self-interest, which includes lots of Russian money flowing through his properties and accounts, is inclining him toward Russia and Putin.
Note well this is bad enough — in my opinion we have an incoming president who seems prepared to severely hobble our alliances because of his own personal financial interests, and has picked for his cabinet several people with similar issues. The technical term for such a situation is “a real shitshow.”
Is it treason? Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeh, I don’t think so? But I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if eventually it becomes the core of an impeachment proceeding.
(Update: And then there’s this, which if anything comes of it, does not look great for Trump.)
Hello I am not a Trump supporter!
Yes?
How do I oppose him?
That’s up to you. For myself, I’m planning to give a whole lot of money (possibly from that tax cut I will now almost certainly get) to organizations that will gum up the works for the Trump administration and/or help to protect people who his administration will put at risk (pretty much anyone who is not a well-off straight white person), and do a lot of writing, because rumor is, I have an audience. There are other things I’m considering as well.
For other folks, aside from giving money, calling representatives and protesting and volunteering and voting for fuck’s sake and making sure everyone you know is registered and votes too all help. One suggestion I’d offer people is not to spread yourself too thin — per above I think the Trump administration is going to make pushes into all sorts of areas: Free speech, women’s health, public education, minority voting, LGBT+ rights and so on. They want you to be dazed and thinking there’s too much to focus on. Pick one as your main focus and drill down on it, hard. Others will take up the other categories. Help them when you can but push hard on the one area you know and care most about. If enough people do that, everything will get covered and energy won’t dissipate. It’s going to be a long four years. Best to keep focus.
Okay, seriously, what do you think is going to happen in the next four years?
I have no idea. But I know a couple of things. One, where I stand, and with whom. It’s not with racists and bigots and the people who would hurt the lives of others just for a goddamned tax cut. I don’t believe every Trump voter intended to enable racists and bigots and the greedy (even if that’s what they ended up doing), and I think in time some of them will regret their vote. At this point, I’ll take regret over a double-down, and welcome them when and if that happens. And in the meantime, I’m happy with where I’m standing.
Two, you know what, if I’m going to resist for the next four years, I’m gonna have fun doing it. I mean, come on: Thumping on racists and bigots and greedy assholes, and shoving sticks into the spokes of their shitty little plans? That’s holy work, that is, and I’m going to enjoy every minute of it. Opposing Trump and his pals is serious business, but I think if you can approach the work with some joy, it will help. I’m going to take pleasure in sticking up for my country. I hope you will, too.
So let’s get to it.
(P.S.: Today I’ve also written about the end of the Obama years, here.)
Now, Trump does seem to have a rudimentary jobs plan, which calls for building out the country’s infrastructure
That’s literally all there is to the “plan”. It’s a slogan, like everything else about Trump that he can attach his name to and have others do the work. Think about it. This is exactly what he does – he finds projects that need branding and he brands them with his name. Of course, his name is only good for certain people and his brand is sort of sleazy, so he attracts groups like “trump university”.
Oh, and he also attracted a group called “Trump Vitamins” for which you had to send a sample of your urine in to be analyzed so you could get customized vitamins. The whole thing was a con game, like so much Trump branded. They didn’t analyse anything. They just…
wanted…
to collect pee?
HEY WAITAMINUTE!
Last question: how do I survive holiday gathering with the members of my family who support Trump?
Icarus:
Put out a jar and say “Anyone who talks politics has to put $20 in the jar per utterance. We’re donating to the ACLU.”
Re: your suggestion not to spread too thin and to dive deep on a specific issue, another direction that people can go is broad rather than deep. To do this, sign up for one of the many excellent weekly mailing lists going around (my favorites are Actions for Americans and Wall of Us, and there are also really good ones put out by various Indivisible groups and several other– we have a list of 5 on our activism tab) and just go through their list of actions each week.
If you don’t have time to do meetings and protests etc, they can guide you in what the current issues are, who to call, and how to call. They do the research so your voice can be heard.
I think both broad and deep are needed, and people with busy lives and not a whole lot of time can still help a lot with just 15 min a week.
My prediction is that around the 2018 State Of the Union we will see the first true GOP opposition to some of his policies and actions. Not talking all out revolt or impeachment, they will still put party first before country. So that will never happen.
But I do feel that they will start to see negative repercussions in their own districts and their campaigns will start to feel the pinch. So they will try to distance themselves from him in very small ways.
Well, for example, right about now there are a lot of politically and socially conservative folks who are aghast at the fact of a Trump presidency and who recognize that he represents a clear danger to the Republic. What do I think about these conservatives, who I might otherwise have almost no political overlap with? I think: Hello, ally. In this fight and in this moment they and I have a common goal — making sure our system of governance isn’t completely tubed by an insecure vulgarian — and I’m okay with focusing on that goal right now. After that’s done, then we can get back to yelling at each other on every other topic. Heck, we can yell at each other while we focus on our common goal! They are important topics.
I think there is a tendency to have circular firing squads in all humans and I’m afraid there’s going to be harmful fallout from that (one of them may be Cory Booker, where I don’t quite understand the problem of his voting against one drug pricing amendment and voting for a very similar one).
Coalition building does not seem to be a skill held in esteem by the extremists on the right or the left.
I’ll be honest: it’s not so much that I’m afraid of Trump climbing into the Big Chair. I’m more irritated by all the time that’s been wasted (and will be wasted) on petty partisan BS instead of our government doing useful, helpful things, like they’re supposed to.
I will also cop to also being annoyed by his blatantly obvious attempts at stacking his admin deck with the most Dickensian stereotypes ever. I’m still expecting him to add Milo and Shkreli in there somewhere.
But yeah. It’s not the end of the world by a long shot. But it sure is going to be a big pain in the ass.
Also, as I pointed out on a friend of a friend’s (FoaF) Facebook*, who had posted a ‘hey, liberals, stop wishing for Trump to fail’, one of the problems is that ‘A Good President’ means different things to different people, beyond some basics like ‘do not drive the economy into the toilet’ and ‘do not start nuclear wars’. More about ways to not be a bad president, since most people agree that economic depression and nuclear war are bad results.
But this FoaF and I probably substantially disagree on the direction a Good President should take the country, so many of the changes that would make me happy and pleasantly surprised, would probably upset him and vice versa.
I don’t think Trump can be a Good President for everyone at this point, even if he was actively trying. I don’t think Obama is seen as a Good President by everyone, despite the fact many people (including me) think he did an okay to great job.
* I know, I should just hit the ‘hide post’ and move on.
Are you sure you don’t have English blood in you, Scalzi, because that’s some powerful understatement. Because I’m a masochistic politics junkie, I’ve been following the confirmation hearings — which the GOP have been trying to truncate as far as possible, while keeping the questions on the level of “What’s your sign? And your favourite pizza topping?”
Education Secretary-designate Betsy DeVos was typical, and would be hilarious if it wasn’t so damn serious. Even while being lobbed the softest of softballs, she made it painfully clear she has no grasp of education policy because her only political idea is gutting public education like a slutty cheerleader in a slasher flick. Oh, and we can’t ban guns from school because of the phantom menace of paedophile bears. Or something.
@Icarus:
Know where ALL your exits are, and remember “No” is a complete sentence. If you’re hosting — I have a very simple, old school rule. Sex, religion and politics are not suitable topics of conversation at my table. If you don’t like that, there’s a Burger KIng half a mile down the road.
Sometimes your capacity for painting a picture is a bit too… uh.. focused. I’m going to take a shower now.
“Fuck you, let’s do this thing” reporting for duty.
I may do the focused approach. The shitshow is never-ending, and appalling to me in multiple ways, and I do fear for friends. The Gish Gallop is wearying and feels like you’re playing Whack-a-Mole; call your reps about X, then tomorrow Y suddenly appears, and is just as horrifying, and requires yet another call.
But climate change is, I think, my focus, especially given some exceedingly worrying changes in Arctic and global sea ice extents.
I definitely see a lot of the ‘oh shit’ happening. Within a few days after elections, I was ready to start planning and mitigating. However, most of the people I knew were in riot mode and thought I was heartless for getting ready to function.
Focus, focus, focus, focus. One person can dig a foxhole. One person can spread concertina wire. One person can stand in front of a tank. But one person can’t do all three things at once.
I build websites. During this resistance I will build sites for people with greater resources than I. And that’s my goal.
Question for anyone who wants to make a useful suggestion: as a Canadian, is there anything I can do to resist Trump?
One of the big differences between the left and right, at least in this country is our attitude toward a president of the opposing party. The right actively wants a democratic president to fail, the left hopes a right wing president does well. How do I feel about the donald, well he reminds me of every trust fund having, inherited wealth receiving, can you belief how I made it on my own delusion having a*hole I know. I live in the OC in California, I know lots of folks with inherited wealth, they run the gamut like any other group of people from nice folks to the truly delusional.
@Becca, I think that stuff is really important actually! Even if you’re not convincing the FoaF, your words are reaching a lot of other eyes. This means you may convince some of them, or may make them think twice about saying stupid shit in public that may be challenged, and thereby generally elevate the discourse a bit.
It important to remember the most basic thing any citizen/voter can do: regularly email/write/phone your representative to say firmly but politely “I did not like that statement you made/legislation you’re supporting/speech you gave and if you want my support (and my family’s) you’ll please change your vote.” This does work, if enough people do it. Most congressional reps are not front page names and do listen to voter feedback. This is especially important for Democratic reps because they need to get their shit together asap.
Another thing to pay serious attention to is voting laws and voting restrictions. If there’s a voter registration effort in your area, then get behind it. Republicans aren’t even pretending anymore that voter fraud means anything but Democratic votes. Don’t let them get away with it.
Also: keep in mind that we could be dealing with President Pence in 12 to 18 months. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Trump doesn’t make it for the full term. Pence is no better and in some ways may be worse.
There is no middle ground with Donald Trump. When he’s good, he’s very good. When he’s bad, he’s impressively awful. Some days I think giving the presidency to Trump is like giving a 16-year-old the keys to the family sedan and a bottle of whisky to go. Other days, I think Trump just might have the stones to implement major reforms. Either way, we shall see. . .
The thing that terrifies me the most is that we’ll probably have even more attempts to subvert voting rights, and if he gets to load up SCOTUS before the mid-terms, we’re screwed.
The other thing is that I still see people in the bargaining stage thinking that if we just somehow get rid of Trump himself, we’re OK. And while there will likely be slightly less risk of nuclear annihilation under Pence, all the rest of the ugliness is still going to be with us. The problem isn’t one man. It’s ~60 million voters who think the idea of stripping economic and political power from everyone who isn’t cishet, white, Christian and without disabilities is terrific, and another ~100 million who don’t give enough of a shit to bother voting.
On a “what can we do?” level, though: I’ve long since given up on trying to change the minds of Republicans. Anyone still voting for that party under the current circumstances is consciously supporting everything it stands for, and if they can do that, there’s no changing them. The people we can change, though? The (mostly white and male) nitwits on the far left who think we should burn down the whole system and build a communist utopia on its ashes.
Aren’t you afraid? I get that you, personally, aren’t afraid, John, but shouldn’t regular people be afraid? I’ve been afraid to speak out ever since election day. I’m a contractor, which technically means I’m a small-business owner, but it’s really just me. I’m terrified of alienating my clients if I speak out in public, because I can’t afford that. I’m terrified of calling my representatives because I’m afraid I’ll be on a reprisals list. I’m worried of repercussions to my family if I say anything. I’m terrified that a majority of the country thinks that this is OK now, that a country I thought I understood isn’t what I thought it was. I get that we’re supposed to have freedom of speech, but I don’t think that means anything anymore. I don’t want to fight; I want to run, but there’s no place to run to.
“his foreign strategy to goatse himself so that Vladimir Putin can slide his arm up to the pits and operate Trump’s mouth with his hand.”
So many ’90s flashbacks. I also shriek-laughed at the image, so thank you for your ever-vivid writing.
@Shawna
I dunno, there seems to be a growing group of them on Twitter who are coming to the horrified realization that the ACA (which they like) and Obamacare (which they hate and voted specifically to get it removed) are the same thing and that the GOP lied to them.
While there’s some mileage in schadenfreude there, we’d probably do better by a kind “yes, they did. It’s not the only thing they’ve been lying about; would you like to talk?”
Just subscribed to Wall of Us. Thanx for the info. I plan to spread all the information I get from them as far and wide as I can.
@Icarus. Troll your Trump relatives. For example;talk about how great it is that Trump has so close a relationship to Russia, say that as a leftie it pleases you and it moves the case for nuclear disarmament ever closer. Find a cause your relatives like and talk about how great Trump is saying he is going to be about it by doing a left wing thing. He’s tweeted so much crap that you can pretty much cherry pick whatever you want and enthusiastically talk about how the supposed right wing party line is being fulfilled in a way that is very leftist.
To everyone else, don’t talk about how much Trump appalls you. If you are on the left then chances are the thing that horrifies you is something righties really love. Talk about how their man Trump is doing something you love. Talk about how it is great he is putting restrictions on free trade by threatening tariffs against non-complying business and using the tax code for tracking. Rightists hate that sort of stuff, talk about it enthusiastically and using plenty of recognizable left wing jargon. Make them oppose Trump themselves by attacking him where the rightists in your family, friends, general social circle think the most of him. Remember they hate what you like and like what you hate. Some die hard rightwingers build their entire worldview around nothing other than hating whatever winds up the left. Literally nothing else (you can identify those by checking their browser history for Daily Mail links) and if you start praising it as a massive step forward for the left then they’ll begin to get itchy for hating on it just out of force of habit.
Brian M, don’t let your fears overwhelm you. For example, only once when I’ve called a representative has anyone even asked for my name, and, honestly, they have no way of checking that the name I give them is correct, even if they do ask. Simply identifying yourself as a constituent in their district is sufficient 90% of the time.
Caution is warranted – you probably don’t want to be mouthing off under your own name in unfamiliar public fora without a clear sense of what you’re trying to accomplish – but don’t let your fear overwhelm you such that you censor yourself and do that job for them.
Addendum: I have been completely overwhelmed with wtf-itis since the election. Everything that comes across my news feed sounds horrifying. I’m subscribing to one, and only one, news feed about what to do about said news, and Wall of Us will be it. I will subscribe to only one feel good political website and that will be Good Black News. Why? Because that will help me maintain at least some small amount of hope.
I’ve decided that it is not important what Trump says. It’s what he does. So far he has selected a theocrat for his running mate (not that everyone would see anything wrong with that) and a bunch of profiteers and other parasites for his cabinet. He persists in not understanding what a blind trust is AND he wants to hire relatives which is either illegal or against policy. I’d have to look it up. And he’s been convicted of fraud recently for fleecing people out of thousands of dollars for his fake university classes on how to be rich like him. So you know pretty presidential and a man of the people.
Uh what? Trump isn’t the main problem here, at least domestically. He is merely the rubber stamp on the awful and destructive policies of the mainstream Republican party, which they are gleefully chasing as fast as possible (see: Obamacare, abolition of, abortion rights, removal of, SCOTUS picks, awful). Trump is merely the revolting garnish on top of a mountain of mainstream Republican bullshit. We all know that it’s going to be exploding deficits, massive national debt increases, and tax cuts to the rich from here until the end of the line.
He’s a distraction at best, a carnival sideshow, that removes the focus from the real turds in the punchbowl – Paul Ryan, McConnell, Corker, and all the other “Fuck you, I’ve got mine” members of the GOP. In fact, he might even be a net benefit to the GOP, as they can blame the dumpster fire on Trump and say “not us, we’re not President”
Now granted he has a big bully pulpit, but Congress is in charge of trade deals, so none of his protectionist stuff will get passed, and the owners of the GOP like NAFTA etc.
Abroad, we’ll be in at least another 2 middle eastern wars (Iran, Syria) and possible one in southeast Asia (North Korea) which will kill thousands of US troops, maim thousands more, and achieve precisely nothing. And that will be entirely on Trump.
It’ll be interesting how many Chiefs of Staff resign rather than follow the lawful but idiotic orders of the orange madman.
Putting your suggestions into action – here’s a practical guide for anyone interested: https://www.indivisibleguide.com/web/
“Perfect is the enemy of the good.” F’n a right. One thing the left needs to do to have a path forward is a)give trump supporters and conservatives an out in which they can oppose him and his policies without giving up their conservative identity, b), find common ground where we can work together without them having give up their conservative identity, and c), realize that sometimes politicians or policies are mostly good or good enough even if they aren’t awesome on our particular issue of choice (the ACA for example).
.
I don’t expect Trump to change. Those around him matter. Confirmation hearings matter. From Management Theory perspective: Good White House: a Cabinet-centric White House, as under Reagan, HW, Clinton – as opposed to a Bad White House, a red white and blue dictatorship, as under Little Bush, Barack, and they say that Nuclear Engineer Peanut Farmer Jimmy Carter (with whom I had a teacher in common) was so micromanaging that he personally scheduled the White House tennis court.
For people who are more into twitter than email or want daily items rather than weekly, @decaro_nick is a great resource. He also seems to be doing a great job filtering out what’s true and what is just rumor, as well as providing the right contact information for people.
I really like your thoughts. Holy work and have fun doing it, indeed!
I do sense some discomfort, primarily because I’m not used to noticing typos in your work. (Such as well for while and missing “is” in your vivid foreign policy description.)
Thanks for helping me breathe a bit. I’ve resolved to get my news from actual newspapers and pay for them, rather than getting sucked up in clickbait outrage-athons. It’s also time to get involved in local politics and support candidates’ campaigns for mid-term elections. I’m not going to let the Mule delay the Second Empire!
ProfMel:
I make lots of typos and fix them as they’re pointed out to me. Crowdsourcing copy editing, basically.
Brian M:
>I get that we’re supposed to have freedom of speech, but I don’t think that means anything anymore.
I’ve been in the US on one visa or another for close to 25 years, with a few years off back in my home country trying to make that work. Its hard to get a green card unless you work for the same company for 5+ years, and the kind of work I do – I build data management systems – means I tend to get my work done and go looking for another employer pretty quickly. My wife is in the same position, and so when we see calls for marchers to protest the Trump immigration policy we know is coming, to wit “if you get a speeding ticket you’re out”, we’re both terrified to get involved.
But we’re both Canadian, as working-class Scots-Irish as they come, with California accents that only get worse when we visit anywhere else. My great-grandfather was even a sheriff in North Dakota for a while, and our kids were born in northern California. But we are as American as anyone, and not by birth or an outdated grandfather clause: we’ve paid the taxes without being able to cast a vote, and we’ve contributed to our community anyway and been good neighbors. It appears now that our community needs us to also stand up and march along with everyone else who might get into trouble. Because while we might think we’re excluded, at the end of the day we won’t be. And you won’t be either.
So I hear you. If I get arrested at a demo and sent to a detention facility I could be there for months. Perhaps it would be best to just lie down in the tall grass and wait for the lions to pass over. But I don’t have it in me; that’s the attitude that would have kept me in the old country. So you and I are going to have to figure out how to walk the line here, because if there is *anything* that defines an American, its determined bourgeoisie insouciance in the face of vicious and incompetent fascism.
@ Ryan McCarty
I’m a Canadian, and one thing I’ve done is contact every member of the federal cabinet to ask that our refugee legislation be amended so that members of the LGTBQ+ community facing persecution in the United States can be fast-tracked for admission to Canada. IMO, with Mike Pence as VP, that persecution is a question of when, not if; all that’s in question is how bad it will get.
I’ve got cousins and friends who disagree with me politically, we do agree that you should be working for what you believe. Pick a cause, if you burn out, or find a better switch to a new cause. Stay active.
Another key action that we need more of in all politics and not just American politics: get better people doing it! If you can’t imagine running yourself in four years, find someone you and others around you respect, and convince them to run. That’s how you get that swamp drained.
@Katie “call your reps about X, then tomorrow Y suddenly appears, and is just as horrifying, and requires yet another call”
My nana (may she rest) used to do this. I’m not kidding. She watched C-SPAN regularly, and would call her representatives *every day* regarding this vote or that confirmation or this debate or that comment made on the floor. It got to the point where the staffers knew her by voice (she had a unique voice, that helped). I hate phone calls, so I send faxes. They have the immediacy of email & phone calls, the hand-written personalization of a snail mail letter, and none of the awkwardness of a phone call. Few people send faxes to their reps, so it also carries novelty. My state senators & representative are firmly anti-trump (my rep isn’t going to the inauguration & will instead be marching in his district the next day, my senators are speaking out publicly against pretty much every cabinet nominee), but it still helps them to hear from constituents, particularly on issues like the ACA repeal, where they’re looking for peoples’ stories to read aloud during debates. Take 10 minutes, write a note or make a phone call during the morning cup of coffee. It really is something you can do every day.
Everyone will be fine.
Trump isn’t going to throw Granny out on the street or throw all the negroes in jail. He’s a businessman and a show man. He is going to find a few high profile abusers and he his going to make a very messy example of them as a warning to the rest in keeping with his ‘drain the swamp’ theme. He’s going to shake people up that need it, he will make others accountable, and he will try to instill responsibility in gov’t. Anyone that stands in the way of that will be crushed beneath his treads the same way Hillary was.
Hate to rain on your parade kids but those of you with any sense will take the time to inform yourselves and give him time to prove himself. If you don’t – in six months you will find yourselves amongst the clueless laughing stalks like Rosie O’Donut. Trump and his team are ready for you, they’re smarter than you are and if you make yourselves a nuisance they will deal with you without a second thought.
Just sayin’.
Trying to embrace optimism. https://youtu.be/TIoBrob3bjI
No, Glenfilthie, you’re not “just sayin’ ” you’re being a condescending bag of dicks to those of us who’ve been playing close attention for a long time to what Trump and the people around him have been saying and doing. That’s not a smart play around these parts. Neither is macho posturing and implied threats.
One other FYI, winning an election does mean you get one single minute of immunity from scrutiny, criticism or even mockery. If you don’t like that, I understand Moscow is lovely this time of year.
Thanks for finally cutting loose, JS. I was getting a little oxygen deprived.
Glenfilthie:
Everyone will be fine.
He his going to make a very messy example of [a few high profile abusers].
[Trump and his team] will deal with you without a second thought.
Logic and consistency are not your strong suits, are they?
These thrree phrases describe the mental state of Trump’s most addle-headed and anti-social supporters: “mass-hypnotized”(he is a *very* good salesman,) “newspeak-speaking”, and groupthinking. It is important to understand your opponents before you can oppose them.
[Deleted because we don’t have to go directly to the Nazis to register a complaint about someone’s comment. CartoonCoyote, you may try again with slightly less heat — JS]
Thank you for saying clearly that we are past the wringing of hands and gnashing of teeth. As you point out, all of that is not productive, but it does detract from things that are.
Glenfilthie: I reckon he’s given us all the ‘proof’ of himself that’s there to give. Have you NOT been paying any attention for the past year? Still waiting for the big ‘pivot’? Sad, boy, sad…
Folks, lower the rhetorical temperature, please. Thank you.
Jean:
No, I don’t think he’s done anything in particular to earn that award. But it’s possible I have a very high bar.
As I said in the other thread, the Trump Presidency leaves me feeling like a teenager again.
I don’t want to feel like a teenager again. I was a teenager in the 19-fscking-80s, gods damn it! I spent my high school years constantly terrified today would be the day where the US President made one “joke” too many, and we would all be reduced to a small smear of radioactive ash on the buildings. It was not fun. And quite honestly, I don’t want anyone to be feeling that way.
Given I’m also in Australia, which means my ability to successfully alter any of this is approximately zero (plus/minus some infinitesimal fraction of a percentage either way), it’s not a fun way to be. I’m also a broke Australian, which means yeah, nah, not happening mate! on any serious activism.
I’ll keep up the What Went Right posts for as long as I can, though, because I do think we all need (and I need, in particular) to see that the world isn’t a vale of gloom and tears. There are positive things happening, and these things are being reported in the mainstream media, and if I can boost the signal on the positive stuff, even by a little bit, then I will. (If anyone finds stuff about “what went right” and leaves a link in the comments, I will be a very happy bunny!).
Trump is in this for Trump. He will do what he needs to get what he wants, which in this case is likely to be financial support from Russia (and possibly China), since he can’t get money from anywhere else. I think he’s also personally a rabid racist (which he learned at his KKK-member Daddy’s knee) and sexist (because he views women as possessions and status symbols.) But he’s also perfectly happy to cater to the whims of the Randians and Dominionists if it means they’ll give him votes and unquestioning support.
To that end, he’ll be perfectly happy to sign off on things like repealing any and all federal protections for women, queer folks, etc., and appoint SCOTUS justices that will gladly overturn Roe, Obergefell, Lawrence, etc. He’ll also be happy to strip all federal programs to make the hardcore Libertarians (Ryan, etc.) happy (while of course not taking a dime from military spending because we need to go invade all oil-producing countries and seize their resources.)
If you don’t think Trump will do all this, you haven’t been paying attention.
John: I think your comment to Jean was meant to go in the Obama thread.
Hi all, a foreigner here who can’t do much directly.
Crypticmirror had a few good ideas above.
Others; –
1. Go over the top. Be more demanding than the R voters – “Why no wall? Sad”. Yep, use sad all the time. Take his trademark off him. “Still not locked up, Sad”
2. Resurrect the Death Panels. As the details of how ACA it will be repealed / replaced aren’t known yet talk up how death panels at the insurance companies will make decisions to deny everyone’s parents and grandparents health cover, unless they pay huge premiums.
3. Video mashups. Mix and match video. “When I’m the President. You know this election is rigged don’t you?”
4. And of course false news. Have you heard the one about people not being liable for state taxes unless they’re registered to vote?
Have fun. if someone says something, keep reminding them they said it.
As for resistance, ugh. Whats the point when the democratic party keeps putting people in charge based on having rich donor friends rather than having grass roots appeal? How the hell is Feinstein in charge of a photocopier let alone a bigwig Democrat after overseeing the massive failure of the 2016 election? We dont need politicians who suck up to big money. We need candidates who have grass roots.
And until gerrymandering is put to an end, theres no hope of dems getting control of the house. And I dont see any movement from the party to fix that.
Why isnt the Democratic party at the front of the opposition? Why arent they *leading*. Why arent they *organizing* the opposition? What the hell are they doing?
All I see is individual Dem politicians asking pointed questions and making some waves about specific trump nominations. But what is the party leadership even leading right now???
Respectfully, I’d suggest re-evaluating your investments. Financial opinion seems fairly split on Trump but it’s not odds I like. There will be a recession since we are due and interest rates will go up as well. Trump will likely trash various companies, as we’ve seen, with resultant stock losses. Trade wars or simply angry countries will cause other complications.
A question for you Mr Scalzi.
What publications would you recommend I subscribe to in an effort to support freedom of the press in the coming years. So far I’ve subscribed to NYtimes and Mother Jones.
It seems possible that a free press, and freedom of speech in general, will be under attack in the coming years. Who are the journalists that will shine a light in dark corners, expose the lies when the government fails to tell us the truth.
What little I can spare will be just a drop in the bucket, but It’s a little thing I feel I should do.
@greg
If you can’t hope for the Democratic Party to save us, then you need to get out there yourself. Organize. Run for office. Stop wasting time pointing fingers at people you wish were more competent and Get To Work.
Here’s the thing, folks: I burned out years ago. My job is draining and full of emotional labor. I spend my life submitting to the wills of everyone (job requirement) and the last time I won any kind of argument with anyone was in May and it was a petty small thing that the other party really couldn’t argue back about because then it’d be animal neglect. I don’t win fights with anyone. Nobody listens to me and I come off as a squeaking weakling even when screaming “noooooooooooo” at people, who promptly do as they want and run me over anyway.
I just don’t feel like I can join in and be a rebel and a fighter and stand up and fight back. I don’t want to call my senators for no good reason other than I hate phones, ain’t no way in hell I’d run for office or want to, and I don’t want to end up on any watchlists or get GamerGated or any of that crap if someone notices me being a rebel and a fighter. I’m kinda relieved I’ve already got something scheduled on protest day, though I’ve at least knit a few hats to pass on to others. I’m looking at all of the fighters in the past and realizing that I just don’t have that in me. I admire those who do, I always thought I’d be that kind of person, but when push comes to shove, I just want to go hide in a hole and hope nobody notices I’m here.
Which makes me feel bad about me, but I deserve it, I suppose.
“Abroad, we’ll be in at least another 2 middle eastern wars (Iran, Syria) and possible one in southeast Asia (North Korea) which will kill thousands of US troops, maim thousands more, and achieve precisely nothing. And that will be entirely on Trump.”
North Korea is in Northeast Asia, not Southeast, and there won’t be any war against them as long as they have nuclear weapons. Technically, the US is already at war in Syria, against ISIS, and a proxy war against Russia and Assad. Hopefully Trump extracts the US from that morass. Iran will likely soon join the SCO which will put them in the same security bloc as Russia, China, India, and Pakistan-four nuclear powers, so I don’t foresee a war against Iran.
At any rate there are still checks against Trump’s powers, bureaucratically, procedurally, legislatively, diplomatically, etc. He isn’t given carte blanche, but it is amusing to see all the “freaking out”, especially by the blog owner.
I foresee a Trump presidency that sees the end of the most destructive war (begun during the Obama administration) since the 1990s (the Syrian Civil War), improved relations with Russia, (who thinks this is a bad thing) and yes even as one other commenter japed-thinking it a great insult to conservatives, even though it was Reagan’s dream-coming closer to nuclear disarmament.
At home, a revitalization of the manufacturing core of the US is possible. Remember India will pass the US in 2020 in terms of economic importance, that is to say which state contributes the most to world economic growth. China passed the US a decade ago in this metric. So Trump has his hands full, we’ll see what happens. He could fail of course, there’s always that possibility. But remember at his core Trump is a business man who likes to make deals, not an ideologue.
In answer to Danwest, support your local newspaper if you still have one. Because no one else is going to spend all their time digging into the backdoor deals going on in your community.
@Van
I’d give serious thought to rearranging my investments except I have no idea what would be a safe place to put money into. Bonds usually do well if stocks do poorly, so rebalancing at least is a thing I might look at. But hell, who’s to say *what* will happen with a complete and utter incompetent at the helm?
Supposedly Presidents don’t have much influence over the economy. To which I’d say “Yeah we’d better hope not, right?” and “What about Presidents who have the House and Senate on their side; do *they* have much influence over the economy?”
So… yeah. Going to try to do the usual stuff; Index stock fund combined with index bond fund balanced for my age, and perhaps rather a larger percentage than usual in a fairly liquid form (money market fund maybe) in case I have to bail a protester out of jail or buy a gay couple tickets to Canada. Going to forgo a few discretionary purchases because a Trump America is probably a damn good place to have a cushion if you can manage it.
Also arranged a monthly donation to the ACLU to go with the one to Planned Parenthood, have been calling my Senators and Rep a couple of times a week (and when I was told yesterday that my Rep had been hearing a lot from a handful of people but nothing from the rest I went today and recruited three more friends to start calling) and am going to a Sister March for the Women’s March On Washington (DC is too far, but the local big town I can manage.)
Republicans have blown their cover. Trump is a symptom of something much deeper and uglier. I’m not losing my country without a fight.
Let’s do this thing.
James. Theres a lot of silliness to poke holes at, but this one sticks out:
“At home, a revitalization of the manufacturing core of the US is possible.”
Jobs arent being exported away. They’re being automated out of existenc3. I have an old milling machine and lathe, tools that dont exist in the workplace anymore. Used to be you could learn how to machine in high school and get a decent job as a machinist. Now a hundred machinists have been replaced by a single CNC machine. The industrial revolution created an explosion of city jobs to get people off the farm. The computer revolution is making those industrial jobs all obsolete. We are approaching a point where raw manual labor isnt needed for most of the economy to function. Entire plants are run by maybe three people, where it used to be hundreds. There will be no revitalization of the manufacturing core in the US. At least not in any way that will bring back plants that require hundreds of machinsts running manual mills. That kind of plant, that kind of manufacturing doesnt exist anymore.
In 1790, 90% of the US population were farmers. In 1880, a hundred years later, 50% of the population were farmers. Another hundred years, 1980, and less than 4% of the US population are farmers. Those farm jobs are never “coming back”. Industrialization and technology/automation made most of the farmers redundant. 3% of the population can feed the other 97%.
And similarly, a small percentage of manufacturing will be able to support the needs of the remaining 90-some percent.
Trump isnt bring back manufacturing for the same reason he isnt going to have farmers use mules to plow fields. People reminiscing about the good old days of plentiful, little education, high paying jobs, dont understand why those days are *old* and why today will never be like that.
I was just talking with a guy who manages the capital equipment at an american plant. Years ago, they exported some manufacturing overseas for cheap labor. But the cost of semi intelligent robot arms has plummeted, so they’re bring manufacturing back to the US, but they wont be hiring more people. They’ll be buying more robots.
If Trump causes a boost in the economy, it will be a short term growth spurt caused by deregulation. And if he deregulates everything, corporations will quickly expand to sop up any new profits, stocks will bump, and then profits will go back to the way they are once the unregulated fields are eaten up. And all that will mean is a bump for shareholders of companies, but little benefit to the economy as a whole.
What I love is how republicans, the usual defender of free enterprise, are suddenly falling in line and cheering Trump as he threatens individual companies with tax penalties and offers them tax breaks to have the government micromanage business decisions. So, basically, this proves Laissez Faire is a joke, right? That it doesnt work? And now finally both parties agree, its just that Republicans only agree to regulation when republicans do it.
Basically, Trump blew smoke up America’s ass. He doesnt manufacture anything. Never has. His businesses are basically real estate and casinos. But he is a good con man, and he conned a big enough chunk of people about “bringing back” manufacturing jobs to America to get himself elected. And when the boom fails to materialize, his ie hard followers will find a reason to blame Obama or some democrat.
Going Nameless, I think it was Sarah Kendzior who said, “If you can’t be brave, be kind.” And I’d add don’t, do *not* beat yourself up for lacking bravery. Everybody carries different burdens. If you carry yours to the best of your ability, you’re doing enough. At least, that’s my excuse!
But, really, imagine just as a thought exercise if everyone lived their lives as a kind and thoughtful person who did no harm. The air would get sucked right out of the Trumpalumps.
If you can’t go out and fight, you can stay in and fight. Live your life in a way that provides no support to Trumpery. I really and seriously think that’s a lot right there.
As for the big picture Scalzi is talking about, I have to admit I’m with that group over there, the one looking up at that stubbornly empty spot in the sky, waiting for the aliens to land and deal with this overwhelming scourge.
James. Theres a lot of silliness to poke holes at, but this one sticks out:
Oh there is eh? I see you didn’t touch my writing on foreign policy. Wise, on your part.
“Jobs arent being exported away. They’re being automated out of existenc3. I have an old milling machine and lathe, tools that dont exist in the workplace anymore. Used to be you could learn how to machine in high school and get a decent job as a machinist. Now a hundred machinists have been replaced by a single CNC machine.”
Must be why all my products say Made in China instead of Made by Robots. Jobs are being exported overseas, because overseas labor is still cheaper than “automation”. You can pay slave wages to the Chinese, Vietnamese etc, and they’ll have good jobs, but even for “automated” jobs you still need to pay for repairs, Ever have your copy machine go out? That cost is going to be more expensive than paying someone overseas to make the same product. It’s basic economics.
“The industrial revolution created an explosion of city jobs to get people off the farm. The computer revolution is making those industrial jobs all obsolete. We are approaching a point where raw manual labor isnt needed for most of the economy to function.”
Except you have to retrain those people. Working on “computers” isn’t so easy for everyone. You need to either retrain these people (assuming they want to be retrained and actually can be) before they take those jobs.
“We are approaching a point where raw manual labor isnt needed for most of the economy to function. Entire plants are run by maybe three people, where it used to be hundreds. There will be no revitalization of the manufacturing core in the US. At least not in any way that will bring back plants that require hundreds of machinsts running manual mills. That kind of plant, that kind of manufacturing doesnt exist anymore.”
Except overseas…companies will utilize cheap labor if it is cheap. People still need to use things that are manufactured. Do you have a refrigerator, a tv, a computer, an iphone, a car, plates, forks, knives, wear clothes? These are called goods, and goods are by definition manufactured. I know this is a scifi author’s blog, but we haven’t yet reached the point where robots do everything for us.
“In 1790, 90% of the US population were farmers. In 1880, a hundred years later, 50% of the population were farmers. Another hundred years, 1980, and less than 4% of the US population are farmers. Those farm jobs are never “coming back”. Industrialization and technology/automation made most of the farmers redundant. 3% of the population can feed the other 97%.
And similarly, a small percentage of manufacturing will be able to support the needs of the remaining 90-some percent.”
There are 800,000 people or so in the US involved in agricultural jobs and over 12 million involved in manufacturing jobs. That’s a big difference.
“Trump isnt bring back manufacturing for the same reason he isnt going to have farmers use mules to plow fields. People reminiscing about the good old days of plentiful, little education, high paying jobs, dont understand why those days are *old* and why today will never be like that.”
Then, like I said earlier you have to retrain, reeducate those workers or pay them large amounts of government money to do nothing, or do you prefer forced sterilization?
“I was just talking with a guy who manages the capital equipment at an american plant. Years ago, they exported some manufacturing overseas for cheap labor. But the cost of semi intelligent robot arms has plummeted, so they’re bring manufacturing back to the US, but they wont be hiring more people. They’ll be buying more robots.”
Nice personal anecdote, whether true or not, is meaningless. There are still plenty of (12 million plus) workers employed in manufacturing.
“If Trump causes a boost in the economy, it will be a short term growth spurt caused by deregulation. And if he deregulates everything, corporations will quickly expand to sop up any new profits, stocks will bump, and then profits will go back to the way they are once the unregulated fields are eaten up. And all that will mean is a bump for shareholders of companies, but little benefit to the economy as a whole.”
Ah, an economist, eh…didn’t know you were an expert in macroeconomics. Actually de-regulation causes long-term economic growth, so don’t play coy.
“What I love is how republicans, the usual defender of free enterprise, are suddenly falling in line and cheering Trump as he threatens individual companies with tax penalties and offers them tax breaks to have the government micromanage business decisions. So, basically, this proves Laissez Faire is a joke, right? That it doesnt work? And now finally both parties agree, its just that Republicans only agree to regulation when republicans do it.”
As Nate Sliver said 2016 may be a realigning election. It happens in American politics. If you want to go back far enough the Republicans used to be the party of civil rights and Progressivism. I don’t vote so I don’t care what you call Republicans but as I recall a good number were not happy with Trump. I think his economic policies are better described as economic nationalism than Laissez Faire
“Basically, Trump blew smoke up America’s ass. He doesnt manufacture anything. Never has. His businesses are basically real estate and casinos. But he is a good con man, and he conned a big enough chunk of people about “bringing back” manufacturing jobs to America to get himself elected. And when the boom fails to materialize, his ie hard followers will find a reason to blame Obama or some democrat.”
No one ever said Trump manufactured anything, but he has created jobs in the private sector, something the last president never did. We will see. As I thought after Obama was elected, now he has to govern. And governing is hard as Obama found out. Maybe Trump will fail, and maybe he will be a success. If he fails you can vote him out in 2020. But, let’s not get into the he’ll never be able to do this or that argument, because if you set the bar too low for him, he may just jump over it.
@GoingNameless:
Foofy tosh, you are the only person on Earth who knows what you have to give and that’s OK. If I could make a modest suggestion here’s one simple act of resistance that will really matter.
There are mid-term elections in a little under two years. Please make sure you are registered to vote, turn out, and tick those non-garbage candidates all the way down the ballot
I cannot emphasise the last part enough, because as we saw in the North Carolina gubernatorial race, taking out the trash at state and local level can come down to a handful of votes. (Roy Cooper’s margin was a little over ten thousand votes out of 4.7 million cast.) The radical right know that which is why they put so much time and effort into voter suppression. So, don’t let anyone tell you that your vote doesn’t count because that’s a lie.
Mr. Scalzi,
Do you have any specific suggestions as to organizations I can assist to help “gum up the works” as you put it? I do vote, but I live in the Ga. 9th congressional district and my elected officials are secure enough in their positions that they don’t care care about my opinion or my vote. I do have a little money though and would like to put it to some good use.
Thank You,
Michael
James: “There are 800,000 people or so in the US involved in agricultural jobs and over 12 million involved in manufacturing jobs. That’s a big difference”
well, its more like 2.5 million people working on farms or about 17 million people working on farms and farm-related industries in the US. Versus 12 million working in manufacturing, so not so big a difference as you’d like to make it out to be.
But in the big picture, magnitude doesn’t matter. Direction matters. I mentioned Ag because Ag went through the same level of industrialization and automation that manufacturing did, except Ag had a 100 year head start. In 1776, a farm might be 40 acres, and an acre was defined as how much land you could plow in a single day with 2 ox. Since then, industrialization and automation has increased and the amount of land a single farmer can plow in a day has skyrocketed. Average farm size today is over 400 acres. A number of farmers I know have *thousands* of acres. That’s what’s happening to manufacturing. Automation is shrinking the workforce needed to a tiny percentage of what it was at peak labor with minimal automation, i.e. WW2 and into the 50’s. The *direction* of ag and the direction of manufacturing are the same: downward.
“but even for “automated” jobs you still need to pay for repairs, Ever have your copy machine go out? ”
Last time I had a photocopier die, it was cheaper to throw it out and buy a new one than to repair it. And the new model had more features, was faster, higher resolution, and just all around better than the previous one. But, please, go on about how repairs are so costly….
Funny story,long, long time ago, I bought some of my heavy machinery from a guy who had a business repairing vacuum cleaners. He went out of business because automation was making it so much cheaper to make a vacuum cleaner to the point it was cheaper to get a new vacuum off the assembly line than to pay him labor to fix an old one. In the battle between automation and manual labor, automation is winning.
“Do you have a refrigerator, a tv, a computer, an iphone, a car, plates, forks, knives, wear clothes? These are called goods, and goods are by definition manufactured.”
goods manufactured more and more by machines, not humans. No textile manufacturer uses the old jacquard looms anymore. Hand weaving cloth just doesn’t make sense. Sure, clothing is still “manufactured”, so they’re still “goods”, but the amount of labor per “good” is dropping year after year, regardless of what “good” you pick. Trump cannot change that.
“Except you have to retrain those people. Working on “computers” isn’t so easy for everyone. You need to either retrain these people (assuming they want to be retrained and actually can be) before they take those jobs.”
what do you think will happen? Trump will wave a magic wand and destroy fifty years of technology??? Obviously, as technology takes over the rudimentary jobs, workers will have to get more education to work in more complicated tasks. Machines can replace 50 workers because those 50 workers were doing rote operations that a machine could automate and replace. That means people have to find jobs that are more complicated than simple rote. That means training.
“No one ever said Trump manufactured anything, but he has created jobs in the private sector”
he’s created “jobs”, but a lot of times, he never gets around to actually PAYING people for their work. Throw in 4 or 6 bankruptcies, and the fact that if he had taken his inheritance and put it into a simple index fund he’d be ten times richer than he is now, shows that he’s a horrible businessman, his business acumen if FAR below average, and I’m not even convinced that overall his business activities actually were a positive overall impact on the economy. He enriched himself, but he screwed his employees, and he mooched off the government and used bankruptcy laws to avoid paying money he owed. He is the quintisential definition of corporate welfare.
“I don’t vote ”
Well, that pretty much explains everything anyone need know about you, doesn’t it?
“well, its more like 2.5 million people working on farms or about 17 million people working on farms and farm-related industries in the US. Versus 12 million working in manufacturing, so not so big a difference as you’d like to make it out to be.”
Not according to the BLS, cite your stats otherwise.
!But in the big picture, magnitude doesn’t matter. Direction matters. I mentioned Ag because Ag went through the same level of industrialization and automation that manufacturing did, except Ag had a 100 year head start. In 1776, a farm might be 40 acres, and an acre was defined as how much land you could plow in a single day with 2 ox. Since then, industrialization and automation has increased and the amount of land a single farmer can plow in a day has skyrocketed. Average farm size today is over 400 acres. A number of farmers I know have *thousands* of acres. That’s what’s happening to manufacturing. Automation is shrinking the workforce needed to a tiny percentage of what it was at peak labor with minimal automation, i.e. WW2 and into the 50’s. The *direction* of ag and the direction of manufacturing are the same: downward.”
It took hundreds of years for the family farm to die out, plus there you’re neglecting the impact that 19th century and early 20th century immigration had on the American agrarian economy. Trump has said a few things about that. Plus the end of slavery.
“Last time I had a photocopier die, it was cheaper to throw it out and buy a new one than to repair it. And the new model had more features, was faster, higher resolution, and just all around better than the previous one. But, please, go on about how repairs are so costly….”
Repairs or upgrades are the same thing. My point being you don’t make the copy machine, someone or something else does. If it’s a machine that makes a copy machine, guess what, it will break, and someone has to repair or upgrade it. That still takes human labor.
“Funny story,long, long time ago, I bought some of my heavy machinery from a guy who had a business repairing vacuum cleaners. He went out of business because automation was making it so much cheaper to make a vacuum cleaner to the point it was cheaper to get a new vacuum off the assembly line than to pay him labor to fix an old one. In the battle between automation and manual labor, automation is winning.”
Ah the Ballad of John Henry, woe be to the Luddites. It will take a long time before machines do everything. In the meantime those manufacturing jobs have to be filled somewhere. Might as well be here than China.
“goods manufactured more and more by machines, not humans. No textile manufacturer uses the old jacquard looms anymore. Hand weaving cloth just doesn’t make sense. Sure, clothing is still “manufactured”, so they’re still “goods”, but the amount of labor per “good” is dropping year after year, regardless of what “good” you pick. Trump cannot change that.”
I guess you’ve never been to Southeast Asia. Lots and lots of textile “machines” there, they look so lifelike, like young Asian women.
“what do you think will happen? Trump will wave a magic wand and destroy fifty years of technology??? Obviously, as technology takes over the rudimentary jobs, workers will have to get more education to work in more complicated tasks. Machines can replace 50 workers because those 50 workers were doing rote operations that a machine could automate and replace. That means people have to find jobs that are more complicated than simple rote. That means training.”
Which means money, and time, and effort, and not everyone is willing or able to be retrained. Again what is your solution? Spending lots of government money on retraining efforts that could well fail, putting millions of people on the doll like Obama did (SSI, disability), which costs money, or enforced sterilization of the working class, and wait until they die off, which will still cost money?
“he’s created “jobs”, but a lot of times, he never gets around to actually PAYING people for their work. Throw in 4 or 6 bankruptcies, and the fact that if he had taken his inheritance and put it into a simple index fund he’d be ten times richer than he is now, shows that he’s a horrible businessman, his business acumen if FAR below average, and I’m not even convinced that overall his business activities actually were a positive overall impact on the economy. He enriched himself, but he screwed his employees, and he mooched off the government and used bankruptcy laws to avoid paying money he owed. He is the quintisential definition of corporate welfare.”
Business is about taking risks, so putting money into an “index fund” (I’m not sure you know what that is though) isn’t exactly a business decision. If he was worried about losing money he would have done what his siblings did with their inheritance. At any rate he worked within the system provided for him as a businessman. However he did campaign against that status quo, so at least that’s something. With Trump he could have just as easily have said he would follow typical Republican economic policies, and have the establishment line up behind him, but he didn’t. Now we’ll see how he governs.
“Well, that pretty much explains everything anyone need know about you, doesn’t it?”
I have my reasons. Seeing the current discourse on American politics I think it’s a wise decision on my part. I really have no dog in this fight, and I live far from the US. Trump could well fail, on the other hand he could succeed. It’s preferable though to at least wait until he has been sworn in before writing the obituary on his presidency, yeah?
James: “Business is about taking risks,”
And an index fund isnt? Past performance is no indicator of future outcome. Its all a risk, just different levels. An index fund is seen as lower risk than taking on an individual company stock. Lower risk usually equates to a lower payoff. High risk usually equates to a higher potential payoff, but also potentially higher loss.
“so putting money into an “index fund” (I’m not sure you know what that is though) isn’t exactly a business decision”
Of course its a business decision. Do you have any concept of how actual businesses run? Corporations have to juggle their cash on hand, outstanding loans, capital equipment, and various other forms of value and debts. Sometimes a company will invest in the stock market, sometimes they buy out another company. Its all business. My point here was that over the course of DECADES, Trumps high risk business ventures paid off far worse, much less, than a low risk index fund. Which says, he is a lousy business man and a lousy assessor of risk management.
Clearly youre peddling some sort of “trump can do no wrong” religion. Probably want to preach to a right wing site if youre looking for agreement about that.
“In the meantime those manufacturing jobs have to be filled somewhere”
You just keep assuming the number of jobs remains constant as automation increases. This is reaching the conclusion you believe in, not the one the facts point to. Because, as you yourself said:
“It took hundreds of years for the family farm to die out,”
So you admit where things are headed, you just want to be coy enough to hold onto your religion a little while longer. Manufacturing is dying out, because automation is allowing a few people to do what used to take hundreds or even thousands of people. Just like the small family farm died out over the course of about a century. We went from 50% of the population to 3% of the population are farmers in a hundred years. Thats dead. We are already down to 12 million manufacturing, which is already single digit percentage of the population. In 1970 about 25% of US workforce was in manufacturing. Now its single digits. They’re never coming back, because they’ve been automated out of existence.
But you gotta sing that hymnal, and worship your gods of yore. Pretend Trump can bring back the “good old days” when manufacturing was a labor intensive business, and just handwave away all the technology that changed the industry.
Greg, James: Please ask yourselves if you’re drifting off-topic.
From the WaPo, Is there a place at the Women’s March for women who are politically opposed to abortion?
Why, no, there isn’t.
Arrgh.
@Cat Faber,
Agree completely. Much more in liquid assets or cash., Avoid the industries Trump seems obsessed with – aerospace and cars, as an example. I actually have already lost money in both due the Turmper’s tweets. Avoid medical since insurance, pharma, and hospital systems will be most impacted by the Obamacare repeal.
Sure, these tactics are a risk if things so well, but they are also less worrisome and may prevent daily stress. I do believe the Republican powers may try to rein in their president when he begins to impact their investments and their contributors’ investments.
And yes, we’ve budgeted $100 a month for political and other causes that need support and we will be marching in our state capital this weekend.
Follow-up:
Opinions
I’m an anti-abortion feminist. I’ll walk at the Women’s March, whether organizers like it or not.
James
‘Must be why all my products say Made in China instead of Made by Robots.’
Actually, an increasing number of items manufactured in China are Made by Robots. The shrinking population in China means businesses there have had to increase wages – minimum wage rates almost doubled between 2010 and 2012 – but even then there aren’t enough, so the Chinese are doing what everyone else is doing: building robots.
I suspect that Trump and his supporters don’t know this…
@michael Lloyd Kelly
You’re wrong that your voice doesn’t make a difference. If you’re in a safe blue district they want to hear from you because it gives them evidence and a mandate that their constituents want what they say.
If, like me, you are in a safe red district, your voice is even more important. You can help move the dial. Three weeks ago my senators office told me repeal without replace, no question. Last week it was, everyone stays on the ACA for two years (implicitly, so they can blame incoming dems when there isn’t a replacement). That’s buying time. Our voices won’t make big things go the opposite direction, but they do move the dial. And I bet they limit the horrible stuff that is proposed, like completely gutting congressional ethics. Even republicans are subject to primary challenges from people who can and will paint them as corrupt. But only if they know we are paying attention.
And lots of us are making calls we never made before. Your voice amplifies ours. Even if your voice didn’t matter before, enough of us in red states are making those calls that it matters now. But not enough of us are calling that your voice doesn’t matter.
So don’t tell people in “safe” districts that this work doesn’t matter. It does. It is moving the dial. Get with an indivisible group in your area or subscribe to one of the mailing lists mentioned above to maximize your voice by adding it to a chorus. 15 min a week can literally save lives.
@ Van
Seems like we’ve done what we can reasonably do on the financial front. I hope your march goes well and is fun. Maybe marching and organizing will include making some new friends–it’s still a good cause if we also have fun, after all.
@ wiredog
Here’s a riddle for you: How is Trump like a fetus?
His followers believe both should be able to use a woman’s body without even asking.
Preserving a woman’s right to say who can use her body and when they have to stop is a big part of why I am marching at all. There is a lot more to the march, of course–support for people of color, for LGBT people, for reducing income inequality, for the environment, etc–but these all tend to be liberal causes, so of course the march will tend to be populated by liberals. If someone is anti-choice I won’t turn down their help with preserving the Endangered Species Act, but it doesn’t mean they can turn the march into some sort of anti-choice propaganda. Let them wave banners saying we were meant to be stewards, not despoilers, of the Earth and I’m happy to have them there. Let them try to whip up sentiment to enslave me and they’re out. As they should be; enslavement of women to produce unwanted babies is the opposite of what this march is supposed to be about.
And if they think abortion is a divisive issue and protecting the environment, or even opposing Donald Trump, is not, they may want to sit down; I have some bad news for them, bless their hearts.