London: Last week, the WikiLeaks Twitter account, widely believed to be run by Julian Assange, tweeted: "If Obama grants Manning clemency Assange will agree to US extradition despite clear unconstitutionality of DoJ [Department of Justice] case".
On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama commuted most of the remaining prison sentence of Chelsea Manning, the army intelligence analyst who leaked a vast collection of sensitive military and diplomatic documents to WikiLeaks.
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Obama commutes Chelsea Manning's sentence
In his final days in office, President Obama commutes the sentence of Chelsea Manning, the former intelligence analyst who leaked a trove of classified material to WikiLeaks.
WikiLeaks has been campaigning for this result intensely, before and especially since hints emerged that Mr Obama may use the traditional pardoning powers of an outgoing president on Manning's behalf.
Manning will now be freed on May 17, rather than in 2045.
If Obama grants Manning clemency Assange will agree to US extradition despite clear unconstitutionality of DoJ case https://t.co/MZU30SlfGK
— WikiLeaks (@wikileaks) January 12, 2017
But the status of Assange, currently still in Ecuador's embassy in London, just behind Harrods, is much less clear.
Will he be extradited to the US, to face potential espionage or computer crime charges from the Department of Justice?
For a start, we have only Assange's word for it. He has in the past promised much more than he delivered, as journalists who regularly flock to press conferences only to receive rehashed previous complaints and assertions can testify.
![Wikileaks is seen as a conduit for Russian hacked emails.](/web/20170119052920im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/4/f/u/o/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gttg87.png/1484740653847.jpg)
Also, there is plenty of wiggle room – as shown by the years it took to negotiate a simple interview by Swedish police at the embassy.
Speaking of Sweden, it's worth noting that there's only one public extradition ruling on Assange at the moment, and that's for him to go to Sweden, not the US.
He has been holed up in the embassy since 2012 in order to avoid going to Sweden to face sexual assault allegations.
On the other hand, Assange has made a pretty bold assertion here. It would be hard for him to back down entirely.
It may be that Assange figures he would now be in a much better position in the US than he would be in either London – where he is at a virtual stalemate trapped in a tiny apartment – or Sweden.
Prosecutors have told the media the commutation of Manning's sentence would make it harder to prosecute Assange for publishing what Manning leaked.
"If the United States government said, 'We are going to pardon Manning for those offences,' I think it makes it that much tougher to then say, 'We're going to drop the hammer on the person that published that information,' " former Deputy Assistant Attorney General Tom Dupree told Fox News
In any event, it's unlikely that Assange will step out of the embassy any time soon, until his lawyers have covered every step along what would be a thin legal tightrope.