Few American presidents have started with such an unparalleled advantage of low expectations as Donald Trump, who will step into the Oval Office next week in charge for the first time.
People around the world fear that this thin-skinned huckster, elected in a fit of voter rage, will now clumsily demolish the Western world order in trade and security, launch a trade war with China – if he does not start a hot one first – all while acting as Russia's stooge. If none of those disasters happen, then for many that will make a successful Trump presidency. Just as his predecessor Barack Obama found it impossible to live up to all the hopes projected onto him, so Mr Trump can only surprise on the upside.
Australians may never warm to Mr Trump, but that should not stop them from dealing with him. The counsel of many academics, as well as former diplomats and politicians writing on these pages, is that we should distance ourselves from the US and our alliance with Washington. This is misplaced and short-sighted.
We have a deeper, structured relationship of alliance, investment and people with the US which goes beyond two presidential terms. So too does China, which has a million students in the US, and is America's largest creditor and trading partner – a relationship full of conflicts, but vastly broader and complex than the Cold War stare-down with the USSR.
China is also our main trading partner, and will still be after Mr Trump's time passes. Averting collision between the two has to be our chief priority, which means more engaging not less. The US and China cannot be mutually exclusive. Yes, China has foolishly forced a dispute in international waters in the South China Sea, and Mr Trump futilely wants to roll back the reality of China's new status in the world. But it is a spiral of conflict that is not inevitable, and has to be slowed down again.
Our relationship with Washington is above personalities, with both basic principles and hard interests at the fore. The basis of Trump's American nationalism is self-interest, in some ways easier to work with than some mission of American exceptionalism. That said, Mr Trump's personality is a problem. Capricious, wilfully ignorant, and with no attention span, he may be unconstrained by things like markets, advisers or negotiating stances that usually hold back leaders. Combined with the fog of Washington, that could mean dangerously confusing signals to allies and rivals alike. All the more reason for us to stay engaged.
Mr Trump was elected above all to fix the US economy. President Obama took over an economy close to depression and helped create a remarkable recovery, which Mr Trump can now build upon. His plan to boost it with tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending, and a cabinet with many more years in business than bureaucracy seems to have unleashed the animal spirits and capital investment plans that has disastrously failed for a decade. The old order in America failed for lack of growth. If Mr Trump despite all his flaws understands that one big thing, he has a chance.
There are pitfalls. Mr Trump's habit of targeting and bullying companies by arbitrary tweet could be as debilitating as any red tape. A dollar strengthening on the US recovery will suck in even more imports, and stretch Mr Trump's patience on trade. There is no prospect now of a Reagan-era Plaza accord to manage currencies and trade deficits – and Mr Trump seems driven by a fundamental misunderstanding of trade as a contest between nations, like that between companies. Mistakes here could yet bring on the trade and currency war with China which undoes everything else.
Stumbling down any of these mistakes will make America its own worst enemy, and all the more reason for friends and allies to stay close by.
