Been looking over Antony Green’s recent report (pdf) on the 2011 NSW election and inspired by comments from Penny Sharpe thought it was interesting to consider what it reveals about the disappearance of Labor’s heartlands and how 2011 compared to Labor’s most severe previous defeat in 1932. For 2011 Green provides lists of the best […]
Class, culture and Labor politics in NSW 1930-2011
Unfortunately there is nothing in state politics to compare to the Australian Election Study. However some aggregate analysis of NSW is interesting and shows how cultural politics has come to rival economic cleavages. I have developed a simple model to predict the two-party preferred Labor vote by electorate. The dependent variables are the portion of […]
Further NSW thoughts
In the end the NSW election went as the polls predicted. Any very large swing tends to be somewhat irregular perhaps because traditional patterns of voting are disrupted. Labor sympathisers made much of the Greens disappointing performance. There would have been a time when for a political force to the left of the ALP to […]
Why Labor lost in New South Wales
First article I ever published in the long defunct Labor Forum was about the 1988 NSW election. So 23 years later my thoughts on current NSW election submitted for another site:
Thoughts on NSW election
1. Opinion polls should be taken seriously, many doubted that Labor would do as poorly as it did at the federal and Victorian elections of last year but it did; 2. Big swings mean the loss of ‘safe’ seats, in 1932 Labor lost Granville where they had polled 70.2% at the preceding election in 1930. […]