Danielle Haralambous

@DHaralambous

Analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit covering UK, Euro zone. Mainly economics & central banking. Also interested in the Nordics.

London
eiu.com
Joined May 2014
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  1. Pinned Tweet
    19 Dec 2017

    After an upswing in 2017, we're expecting another strong performance for the European economy in 2018. There'll be a few political hotspots and struggles to get EU reforms through, but the recovery should continue regardless. More here (free):

    12 retweets 6 likes
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  2. 11 hours ago

    Interesting comparison from ; UK goods & services 22% pricier than EU average, behind only Denmark, Luxembourg, Sweden and Ireland. A lot of this reflects higher prices of tobacco and alcohol (heavily taxed in UK) while food, clothing/footwear and energy tend to be cheaper

    What were the UK's price levels like compared with the rest of the EU?
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  3. Jan 26

    GDP growth was firm in Q4 meaning that economy grew by an annual 1.8% in 2017, in line with our estimate. We’re expecting a slowdown this year, to 1.5%.

    0.5% growth in in Q4 2017, up from 0.4% in Q3
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    2 retweets 1 like
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  4. Retweeted
    Jan 24

    Russia's Reserve Fund now empty and closed, having served its purpose of supporting govt spending when oil prices fall. Now National Welfare Fund is Russia's sole sovereign fund. Will grow this year as oil prices overshoot govt's conservative oil price forecast

    23 retweets 14 likes
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  5. Jan 23

    public sector borrowing was £6.7bn below last year's level in December at £50bn. Tend to see tax receipt boost in Jan so still on course to meet £49.9bn full-year target for FY 17/18 (2.4% of GDP).

    3 retweets
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  6. Retweeted
    Jan 16

    We’re revising up our US and China forecasts for 2018. This also means slightly higher oil prices this year: Brent now set to av $63/b. Overall forecasts global growth at 2.9% in 2018, after 3% in 2017, with fairish momentum into 2019.

    1 reply 14 retweets 5 likes
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  7. Retweeted
    Jan 12

    My belated take on the deal: risk of talks failing remains (SPD vote a big risk), the deal lacks a clear overarching vision and despite this being good news for Merkel the process has weakened her position (no paywall)

    2 replies 9 retweets 6 likes
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  8. Jan 11

    manufacturing growth was solid in Nov, and PMI/CBI/EEF surveys suggest positive momentum will continue in early 2018. Should partially offset the weakening trend in services, but relative size of the sectors (10% vs 79% of GDP) means this won't be enough to prop up GDP growth

    4 retweets 1 like
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  9. Jan 11

    Euro has jumped after ECB hint that it will soon adjust its (currently dovish but cautiously optimistic) language around mon pol stance. Policy focus will also shift away from QE as monthly purchases are wound down (we think in early 2019) and towards forward guidance on rates.

    Account of the monetary policy meeting of 13-14 December 2017
    4 retweets 2 likes
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  10. Jan 11

    We're expecting consumers to lead a UK slowdown in 2018. Spending was resilient for much of last year as consumers took on more debt and drew down savings in the face of reduced purchasing power. But confidence has been fading and the real income squeeze will persist

    6 retweets 4 likes
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  11. Jan 11

    UK retailers have blamed a poor end-2017 performance on the weather, but also consumer caution and the decision to absorb high import costs to avoid discouraging demand.

    January sales: M&S and Tesco drop at the open
    1 reply
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  12. Jan 11

    survey finds big drop in demand for unsecured credit in Q4, and little increase anticipated by UK lenders in Q1 2018.

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  13. Jan 5

    productivity rose by 0.9%q/q in Q3. Gap with pre-crisis trend will always provide disappointing context, but latest uptick was the largest since 2011; cumulative increase since 2008 led mainly by non-financial services but also manufacturing and construction.

    2 retweets 4 likes
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  14. Retweeted
    Jan 3

    Our primer on Italy's upcoming general election here:

    20 retweets 8 likes
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  15. Retweeted
    Jan 3

    PMI survey shows a worrying trend of UK commercial falling for a sixth month running in December, illustrating how uncertainty is curbing business investment. Read more at

    4 retweets 4 likes
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  16. Jan 2

    We forecast growth of 1.5% in 2018 after 1.8% in 2017. Expecting consumer spending to be less resilient to the real wage squeeze this year, while an increase in Brexit-related uncertainty will hurt business investment. Expect the BoE to delay the next rate hike to 2019.

    UK growth to slow to 1.5% in 2018, leading economists predict
    4 retweets 1 like
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  17. Jan 2

    manufacturing PMI eased in Dec but still signals firm GDP growth in Q4, while an upward revision to the official GDP data for 2016 has carried over to our estimate for 2017; we now think GDP grew by 1.8% last year (prev 1.6%). But still expecting a slowdown in 2018, to 1.5%.

    2 retweets 1 like
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  18. Retweeted
    21 Dec 2017

    Expect a fragmented regional legislature to emerge, and possibly very difficult coalition talks. Overall, the election is unlikely to resolve much. Madrid will come under pressure to engage in some form of dialogue if another pro-independence government emerges, however.

    1 retweet 2 likes
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  19. 18 Dec 2017

    On Canada +++, cannot square FTA circle into single market: no sector-based participation in single market. Would be the end of the correct functioning of the single market.

    1 like
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  20. 18 Dec 2017

    EU will start exploring future relationship before March 2018 but UK needs to clarify position. Respect current position that UK wants fewer obligations, but will mean fewer benefits.

    1 reply 1 retweet
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