Former prime minister Tony Abbott has hit out at one of his most loyal supporters, Liberal senator Cory Bernardi amid talk the South Australian is preparing to form a breakaway conservative party movement, predicting it would be wildly successful but harm the Coalition.
Writing in his favoured News Corp newspaper The Australian, Mr Abbott warns Senator Bernardi against leaving, saying MPs should remember they are only in the Parliament because of the party and it's their duty to "try and fix it and not to leave it" if they identify problems.
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Will Cory Bernardi split from the Liberals?
Growing speculation Cory Bernardi is looking at a 'Trump-inspired' defection from the Liberals in the new year amid calls for the conservative senator to quit the party. Courtesy Seven News.
But Mr Abbott predicts that if Senator Bernardi does split he could win 10 per cent of the vote and have senators elected under the conservative banner in every state.
"My guess is that a new entity called the Conservative Party could win up to 10 per cent of the total vote here in Australia but almost all of it would be at the expense of the Liberal-National Coalition," Mr Abbott writes.
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"It's entirely possible that an explicitly conservative party, denouncing the Coalition as unprincipled opportunists, could win a Senate seat in every state. It's almost inconceivable, though, that it would win a lower house seat anywhere and — here's the rub — it would inevitably leach preferences away from the Coalition and deliver government to Labor."
"The bottom line, should rebellious Liberals form a new conservative party, is that decent, well-meaning people will set back the cause they supposedly support, possibly for a generation.
"What's needed in 2017 is not a new conservative political party. It's more self-belief from the one we actually have," he said.
Mr Abbott did not name Senator Bernardi once in his opinion piece but pointedly warned his colleague against attempting to "do a Trump" in Australia.
Senator Cory Bernardi in the United States. Photo: Twitter/Cory Bernardi
Senator Bernardi has posted a photo of himself wearing a "Make Australia Great Again" cap, which is a rip off of Donald Trump's successful campaign slogan. The senator has also previously said that Trump's election was a catalyst for realising he needed to be part of change to the political climate in Australia.
Mr Abbott and Senator Bernardi have long been allies. Senator Bernardi's attack on Mr Turnbull's support for the then Labor government's proposed carbon trading scheme in 2009 helped elevate Mr Abbott to the Liberal leadership.
Peta Credlin with Tony Abbott in 2012. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
The pair are political bedfellows on social issues like gay marriage but Senator Bernardi ended up being sidelined by Mr Abbott and his chief of staff Peta Credlin in office.
He was urged to stop campaigning on issues such as free speech and Muslim immigration during Mr Abbott's prime ministership.
Liberal senator Cory Bernardi. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
But Senator Bernardi remained one of Mr Abbott's most loyal supporters and urged against changing the leader in September 2015, when the Liberals turned back to Malcolm Turnbull.
Several moderate cabinet Ministers that Mr Abbott and his team took into their inner sanctum in office aided Mr Turnbull's political resurrection by switching their allegiance from Mr Abbott to Mr Turnbull.
One long-standing supporter of Mr Abbott's told Fairfax Media that he believed the former prime minister was misreading the mood of the party's membership who were no longer blindly devoted to a party that had come to resemble Labor.
If Senator Bernardi were to steal right-wing voters from the Liberals he would be taking grassroots members most likely to prefer Mr Abbott as leader instead of Mr Turnbull. He has constantly denied he is about to form a new party.