The Australian dollar dipped below US72¢ for the first time since May as the currency continues to come under pressure from a resurgent greenback and further weakness in the iron ore price.
The Aussie on Thursday night dropped as low as US71.98¢, extending the currency's losses for the year to around 1 per cent. On Friday the local unit recovered to a high of close to US72.3¢ before fading again to fetch US72.07¢ in afternoon trade.
Weighing on the Aussie was a steep fall in the iron ore price, which slumped 3.8 per cent to $US76.15/tonne on Thursday evening, as it continues its retreat from its December 12 high of $US83.58.
"Uncertainty surrounding commodity prices appears to be the main drag in thin holiday markets," CBA senior economist Michael Workman said. "Iron ore prices in particular have been heavy in recent days, warning of a softer demand outlook next year."
"Indeed our commodities strategists warn this could be the main theme throughout 2017 with Chinese demand weakening due to, among other things, a slowing property sector," Mr Workman said.
But much of the weakness in the Aussie can be slated to continuing support for the greenback, as traders bet on higher interest rates and stronger growth in the US thanks to stimulatory policies under president-elect Donald Trump.
Since the US election on November 8, the Australian currency has lost 7 per cent of its value against its American counterpart. The losses have been exacerbated by signals from the US Federal Reserve that it may hike rates faster than expected in 2017.
"The market still wants to own [US] dollars as it winds down into Christmas and the New Year period," NAB economist David de Garis said.
The Aussie has failed to find support in recent days despite Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes from its policymakers' last meeting, which struck a relatively upbeat tone and revealed an unwillingness, in the eyes of veteran RBA watchers such as Westpac chief economist Bill Evans, to cut rates any further due to risks around an overextended housing market.
Traders are now pricing in more than even odds of a rate rise in Australia in 2017, although many economists are wary of forecasting a tightening of monetary policy next year given the recent underperformance of the economy, suggesting the central banks is more likely to keep rates at their historical low of 1.5 per cent. Fixed income markets reflect a close to 10 per cent chance of a cut when the RBA next meets on February 2, suggesting conditions are expected to improve only later next year.
"Both the RBA and [Reserve Bank of New Zealand] are more likely to cut rates next year than raise them," Capital Economics economist Paul Dales said. "If we are right in thinking that the US Fed will raise rates faster than the markets expect and that commodity prices will fall back, both the Australian and New Zealand dollars could yet weaken from US73¢ and US69¢, respectively, to at least US70¢ and US65¢."
3 comments
New User? Sign up