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I fear that the solar panel calculations are off by an order of magnitude (or my own calculations are off by the same). One 80-watt panel is 48" by 22", which yields a constant (24-hour) output of roughly 40 watts in sunny climes. So, one 40-watt-yield solar panel is 0.00000026304 square miles. And 0.00000026304*(1000*1000*1000)/40 = 6.576 square miles.
PVs remain stuck at about 10% efficiency, with no breakthroughs in 30 years. Today performance reaches about 5 to 6 watts per square metre. But no economies of scale inhere in PV systems. A 1000 MWe PV plant would require about 150 square kilometres plus land for storage and retrieval.
Well they are both off, but Ausubel is way, way off. If we assume a 1000 MWe electrical generation plant, and we assume it runs 24/7 for the entire year (no down time), then that plant will generate about 8.8 billion kilowatthours per year. So we need to calculate the size of a PV array that will generate the same kW-hrs.
Assuming the average US solar resource of 1800 kW-hr/m2-year [how much the sun shines] and a PV system efficiency of 10%, one square meter of PV would generate about 180 kW-hr/year. Therefore you would need about 48.7 million sq meters or 48.7 square kilometers. That’s 18.8 square miles.
For the sunny southwest, we have a yearly average solar resource of 2300 kWh/m2. Again assuming a 10% PV system efficiency, then that would produce about 230 kWh/m2-year. So for this array, you would need 38 million sq meters or 38 sq km. That is 14.7 square miles.
This is why it is so very important to be correct with the numbers - the future of our society depends on energy and we need to get this right! Also, PV has not been stagnating - current panel efficiency is running close to 15%, which will of course reduce those areas.
My calculation is right. I looked at actual existing facilities and what they produced in recent years. It’s not an argument of what is the best possible performance of any of these technologies.
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Labels: hurricane-katrina
Very unusual weather conditions across much of the UK have persisted throughout the summer of 2007, leading to the highest May and June combined rainfall total on record. It is unusual for soils to be close to saturation point at this time of year, and this in combination with several days of intense rainfall has lead to flooding that has no close modern parallel.They were also unusual in where they started:
Barnaby Smith, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
These floods are very unusual – "mid-catchment" floods, meaning heavy rain falling, not in the uplands, as is normal, but in the middle parts of river basins.But there have been more extreme local events in the past:
Stuart Lane, Institute of Hazard and Risk, Durham University
The rainfall events on 20 July were unusual in that the cloud system remained nearly stationary for a considerable length of time, resulting in about 100 millimetre rainfall depths.
But similar levels of heavy localised rainfall have occurred during the past hundred years. For example:
- 110 mm in an hour near Oxford in 1910
- 140 mm in 2 hours at Hampstead, London in 1975
- 178 mm in 3 hours in Lincolnshire in 1960
- 200 mm in 8 hours in Somerset in 1917
Alastair Borthwick, Professor of Engineering Science, University of Oxford
Ten per cent of UK housing is on flood plains, but this is quite low compared to some countries – it is 70% in Japan and 100% in the Netherlands. We need better flood defences.That has been a common refrain – you'll never stop all floods. All you can aim for is to reduce the risk of them, and cope better when they happen. So how do you do that? One big issue is run-off.
Ian Cluckie, Professor of Hydrology and Water Management, University of Bristol
What is significant and thought provoking is that a year ago we were seeking ways to retain water. Now we are desperate for it to go out to the sea. What we need is a more holistic approach that recognises the role of catchments in terms of flood storage.Here's a picture of that holistic approach:
Justin Taberham, Director of Policy, Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management
You cannot design flooding out of urban spaces. Therefore it is vital that planners and developers move away from trying to resist seasonal influxes of water [which are increasing in volume] and move towards designing for flooding and absorbing excess water safely. This can be aided by taking some simple steps such as: incorporating green roofs, creating recreational areas within cities, and providing storage areas such as wetland habitats and water bodies upstream. In fact, planners could take this as a golden opportunity to make properties safer, but also improve our environment with green spaces and create richer habitats for wildlifeIt's either that or building houses on stilts, I'd say.
Bob Sargent, President, Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management
Despite the dire warnings about outbreaks of disease following flooding, they rarely happen.And the wet weather could break at any time:
Keith Jones, Health-Related Environmental Microbiologist, Lancaster University
There's no obvious culprit for the unusually long wet spell we've been experiencing this summer and so there's no reason to believe it will persist for the rest of the summer. We could revert to more normal summer weather at any time.Now if anyone knows what is "normal weather" for the famously capricious English summer, do let me know.
David Stephenson, Met Office Chair, University of Exeter
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