For just a moment it appeared China might lead the world.
As President-elect Donald Trump cruised to victory in the US election on a pledge to tear up the biggest multilateral trade deal ever negotiated and walk away from an historic climate change agreement, Beijing stepped into the looming void.
China was suddenly promoting a new regional free trade zone and vowing not only to stick with the Paris climate agreement, but to enhance it.
The antics of the unpredictable US leader-in-waiting were forcing China – Trump's favoured punching bag during the election campaign – to emerge as an exemplary global citizen.
After the preceding 18 months, during which Beijing embarked on an extensive island-building program in the South China Sea to the concern of its neighbours, ignored an international court's ruling on the disputed waters and locked up hundreds of human rights lawyers on its own soil, this newfound purpose as the defender of globalisation was very welcome.
But in recent weeks there has been a reality check as China's willingness and ability to lead have been called into question and the complexities and challenges in negotiating regional trade deals, and finding common ground on climate change, policy sink in.
Stakes raised
The US Federal Reserve's decision to not only raise interest rates but also signal there will be three more increases in 2017 has raised the stakes for Chinese policymakers, ratcheting up the risk of capital flight and putting more pressure on the yuan.
Meanwhile, the flare-up in tensions over Taiwan (after Trump's post-election phone call to Taipei) has exposed the fragility of the framework used by the world to engage with China. Combined with recent evidence Beijing has installed weapons on all seven of the islands it has built in the South China Sea, this has heightened concern about the potential for, at the very least, a diplomacy break-down and at worst, a military conflict.
"When you look at what's happening in the world, there are so many uncertainties," says Peter Drysdale from the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research at the Australian National University.
"From what's happening in Europe to the fallout from Brexit and the selection of Trump, the global environment and economy is being challenged in a way we haven't seen for a very long time."
Drysdale says faced with these challenges the obvious place for leadership to secure an open, economic environment is Asia.
Internal challenges
But, China, the region's biggest player, has its own internal challenges in 2017.
The Communist Party Congress, to be held next October or November, will bring about an overhaul of President Xi Jinping's leadership team. Of the seven members on the Politburo Standing Committee, five have reached retirement age, opening up positions to be filled. The committee's make-up will determine whether Xi, who was recently granted the title of "core leader", really is the most powerful party figure since Deng Xiaoping. Also in 2017, an election for the Hong Kong chief executive will be held amid growing resentment of Beijing's tighter controls over the semi-autonomous territory.
At the same time, China's economy which stabilised in 2016, is facing significant challenges over the next 12 months including rising capital outflows, weak private investment, an overheated property market and high levels of debt. The credit stimulus, which started in late 2015 and revived the old industrial sectors, delayed efforts to shift the economy from its reliance on investment-led growth to one driven by consumption and the services sector.
"My sense is that China doesn't really want to have to lead," says Nick Bisley, professor of international relations at La Trobe University.
"It would prefer to be in the shadows and quietly getting on with its business. I think the Party Congress and the economy will dominate the minds of the leadership team," he says.
"Is there a bubble that's about to burst? Is the banking system up to it? All of the issues that have been bubbling away for the last 18 months haven't gone away. Any global leadership from China will be low-key, pretty opportunistic and fairly reactive."
Trade push
So far, China has signalled its strong interest in pushing forward a new regional trade agreement. Trump has vowed to withdraw from the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal championed by the Obama administration that covered countries including Japan, Australia, Singapore and Vietnam but left out China.
Meanwhile, south-east Asian countries, along with China, India, Japan, South Korea and Australia, have been negotiating the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which doesn't include the US. Analysts have referred to RCEP as "TPP-lite" because it is unlikely to adopt the more robust provisions on environmental, labour and food safety standards. Beijing has also been promoting a plan for a Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP) that would include all 21 economies involved in the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group and RCEP could be a precursor to such an agreement.
"A lot of the responsibility will fall on Asia in terms of assuming the mantle of leadership on open trade and economic policy strategies," Drysdale says.
"If they can get some clear agreements that meet or almost meet TPP-type ambitions reasonably soon then that will be a fairly good signal to the rest of the world that there's some substance to the leadership."
However, at the same time a battle is brewing over China's demand to be granted market-economy status by World Trade Organisation members, which would make it more difficult to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties against its imports. Beijing claims part of its initial agreement on joining the WTO in 2001 was that it would automatically be granted market-economy status after 15 years. The US and Europe are resisting, arguing China is not a market economy and it heavily subsidises some industries. Over the past year, for example, the global steel sector has accused China of flooding the market with cheap product.
On climate change, China is taking a leadership role by default. Trump claims the concept of global warming was "created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive" and has chosen a prominent climate change sceptic to head up the Environmental Protection Agency.
Climate change
Beijing has made it very clear regardless of what Washington does, it won't back away from the pledges it made in Paris to reduce emissions and increase its use of renewable energy.
"We don't want to compete with the US for leadership but if it gives up, we will have no choice," says Zhang Haibin, a professor at Peking University who has advised the Chinese government on its climate change policy.
As the world's biggest polluter, China's willingness to take action is partly due to broader national goals around clean air, energy efficiency and upgrading outdated industrial capacity.
"It is in China's self interest to do these things," Professor Zhang says.
While Trump's position on the environment has been well flagged, his approach to Taiwan and territorial disputes in the South China Sea are less clear. After an election campaign during which he appeared to favour a more isolationist foreign policy and a reversal of the Obama administration's so-called "Asia pivot", he has been surprisingly vocal on these two hot-button regional issues.
Taiwan issue
Almost the first thing he did after the election was the provocative step of accepting a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, disrupting 37 years of diplomatic protocol. Beijing still regards the self-governed island as a renegade province that will one day return to the fold. As a result, most countries abide by the One China policy and opt not to have official relations with Taipei.
"This is about the Trump people laying down a marker on China and saying we're not going to be pushed around or dictated to but I would fall over with astonishment if it actually meant they were going to revise the One China Policy," Bisley says.
Still, he expects the US is going to be "more muscular toward China and they've chosen Taiwan to make that point".
"The neocons are back with a vengeance," he says. "I just hope they realise Beijing isn't Baghdad. It's a real country with a real military and on Taiwan you've chosen an issue that couldn't be more explosive."
