It's over

Well the dream has died in Alert. We won't be winning the 2005 big bat. Instead our attention must turn to finishing 3rd and making a third consecutive appearance in the money. Hopefully the excitement of an expansion hockey team will keep Alert sports fans from lynching GM DeJong.

I can only say that our trade deadline moves were a fiasco. Moves were made that gave up keepers and on base guys for power hitters and pitching.

On the batting side that was a total disaster. We expected to move past Havana in TXB and RBI, while clinging to large leads in T1B and R. Instead, Havana has buried us in the power categories, while Yoshitoshi has passed us in T1B. It's only a matter of days before we drop behind Yoshitoshi and Havana in R.

On the pitching side, we've made some progress but much of that was due to our homegrown talent. Rich Harden was injured for most of his Sunshine tenure, and Randy Johnson failed to dominate. We might have made out just fine with a rotation of Carpenter, Loaiza, Radke, Byrd and Ervin Santana/Brad Penny.

On a positive note, we are poised to take some points away from Seaboard in the battle for third. We could pass them in Ws, ERA, WHIP, and Ks if their starters don't make it back soon. Maybe even TXBs!

Jhonny!

Via CBS Sportsline:

Analysis: Peralta also boosted his season slugging percentage to .546, the highest by a Cleveland shortstop since Lou Boudreau's .534 in 1948. He should be starting in all mixed leagues.

I must be forgetting my math skills! Isn't .546 higher than .534?

Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus actually touts Peralta as an AL MVP candidate.

What's interesting is that the list above doesn't include the #2 guy in the American League in WARP. Here's his line:

AVG OBP SLG PA EqA EqR VORP Def WARP
Player X .303 .365 .548 406 .315 71.0 46.6 +36 7.6

The Indians' Jhonny Peralta, who didn't even have a lock on the Indians' shortstop job until May, has quietly been one of the most valuable players in the league. His tremendous defense at shortstop enables him to make up ground he lost early in the season, when he missed a lot of time as his batting average languished in the low .200s and the Tribe messed around with Alex Cora at shortstop. He's hit for a higher average, more power and shown marginally improved plate discipline as the year has gone on, and rates a slight edge on Tejada as the best-hitting shortstop in the game this year.

Anyways, neither the BBBL nor the AL MVP consider defence all that much, but it's great to have such an accomplished young hitter in the lineup. Note: Peralta's now slugging .559!

Ode to Ervin Santana

Ervin Santana has been an erratic performer in 2005. Or quite possibly, he was an enemy spy sent to infiltrate Alert headquarters.

Here's the stats:

Stats in Alert's active roster: 14 2/3IP, 12.273 ERA
Stats not in Alert's active roster: 57 1/3IP, 2.669 ERA
Stats in Forest City's active roster: 13 IP, 2.077 ERA

Tapes found!

A recording made in May 2003 has just found it's way to the Alert media headquarters. Here's a portion.

....

Simon: So, here's the deal - I help you win the Big Bat this year - in fact, I'll help you field the greatest team ever. All I ask in exchange is that each July, any three Stonehand players of my choosing get sent to Seaboard.

Pat: Sounds like a good deal. Just think - the greatest team ever - in Masontown...

Simon: OK, now please sign this contract in blood.

...

Trade!

Alert has completed a trade - the most rare of events.

Leaving the club are:

Alert favourite, Jorge Posada,
Alert favourite, David Wright,
Alert favourite, Aaron Rowand,
the inconsistent Ervin Santana,
and the unseemly Brett Boone

Joining the club are:

Javy Lopez, Randy Johnson, Alert favourite Garret Anderson, and pluggos Alfonzo and Belliard.

Obviously the guts of the deal is David Wright for Randy Johnson. With more upside in pitching than batting, it made sense to acquire a pitcher at this stage. Forest City is acquiring a player that will help a lot this year and will be a cornerstone of their 2006 team.

Lopez for Posada was mainly included to balance salaries, but Lopez is a bit more of a power bat than Posada - which should help us out.

Rowand for Anderson - two $2.3 million underachievers. We wanted Anderson as he could give us a push in the RBI category. Plus, as an original member of the Sunshine, he's a bit of a fan favourite.

The other four players are pretty much non-factors from Alert's perspective. IMO, Boone and Santana have higher upside than Alfonzo and Belliard. Still, it is hoped that this sends a message to players about defecating on the GM's desk!

The perils of first place

So, my team leads the period standings with 822.5 points, more than 50 points better than my nearest competitor. Yet, we've shed 31 points this week and we're just 10.5 ahead of the third place Geishas.

Oh well, maybe this will set us up for another Peach Period Prize in the future.

BTW, I'd like to encourage teams to dis my players with more regularity.

Last week, Guelph kindly mentioned that Peralta, Cano, Overbay and Radke would be decent keepers. The Seaboard-Havana bloc was quick to shoot down this idea.

But over the past seven days since that putdown, these four have put together some impressive stats:

Peralta 3 HRs, .762 SLG
Cano 2HR, .720 SLG
Overbay, 4HR, .900 SLG
Radke, okay no win but a 0.714 WHIP ain't bad.

So keep those verbal salvos coming. BTW, do Seaboard and Havana mock my players to drive down their values, and make trading difficult, or are they communicating heart-felt beliefs? I'm leaning to the former.

End of year projections

At the All Star Break, I've taken the time to model the rest of the BBBL season. It appears that we could be in for another close race!

These are my projections:

1. Havana 790
2. Seaboard 788
3. Alert 745
4. Nemos 722
5. Yoshitoshi 662
6. Kitchener 610
7. Forest City 592
8. Sherwood 528
9. Metropolis 504
10. Heartland 466
11. Masontown 394
12. Guelph 219

Note: My methodology probably unfairly penalizes teams that suffered major injuries in the first half. It's likely that teams like Heartland could do substantially better than projected. Also, no credit was given to Guelph for Barry Bonds.

Adjusted WHIP update

These are your updated leaders in Adjusted WHIP (AWHIP). All MLB stats count.

Starting Pitchers (June & July, min 25 IP)

1. Mark Buehrle, YOS, 0.968
2. Chris Carpenter, ALE, 0.973
3. Roy Halladay, YOS, 0.981
4. Andy Pettitte, SEA, 1.022
5. Dontrelle Willis, MAS, 1.039
6. Esteban Loaiza, ALE, 1.071
7. Roy Oswalt, YOS, 1.097
8. Pedro Martinez, NEM, 1.125
9. Randy Johnson, FOR, 1.130
10. Jake Peavy, SEA, 1.139

Relief Pitchers (June & July, min 10 IP)

1. Brad Lidge, ALE, 0.874
2. Scott Linebrink, FA, 0.890
3. Dan Wheeler, ALE, 0.948
4. Russ Springer, FA, 0.964
5. Huston Street, MET, 0.976

Biggest SP flukes (June & July, min 25 IP)

1. Robinson Tejeda, FA, WHIP 1.207, AWHIP 1.688
2. John Wasdin, FA, WHIP 0.779, AWHIP 1.211
3. Jon Garland, FOR, WHIP 0.992, AWHIP 1.361
4. Horacio Ramirez, FA, WHIP 1.219, AWHIP 1.553
5. Joe Blanton, HAV, WHIP 0.928, AWHIP 1.259
6. Jeff Weaver, HAV, WHIP 0.930, AWHIP 1.228
7. Paul Byrd, ALE, WHIP 0.888, AWHIP 1.177
8. Scott Elarton, FA, WHIP 1.000, AWHIP 1.277
9. Woody Williams, SHE, WHIP 1.030, AWHIP 1.303
10. Barry Zito, YOS, WHIP 1.144, AWHIP 1.412

Unlucky SOBs (SPs June & July, min 25 IP)

1. Zack Greinke, KIT, WHIP 2.133, AWHIP 1.338
2. Chan Ho Park, FA, WHIP 1.953, AWHIP 1.328
3. Brad Halsey, SHE, WHIP 1.926, AWHIP 1.335
4. Joe Kennedy, FA, WHIP 2.008, AWHIP 1.486
5. Sidney Ponson, FA, WHIP 1.810, AWHIP 1.347