Over the coming weeks, the transitional foreign policy team of Donald Trump has to make a crucial decision: will the president-elect attend next November's ASEAN-US Summit in Manila?
Mr Trump's decision will have far-reaching repercussions for US policy in Asia. It will also affect the Philippines, the current ASEAN chair and America's oldest ally in the region.
If everything goes according to plan, Mr Trump will travel to Southeast Asia to take part in the summit. Mr Trump's predecessor, Barack Obama, has used this platform and related summits during his two terms to strengthen ties with ASEAN. The grouping has been seen as a fulcrum around which the global powers can meet and network both formally and informally.
This year's summit in February was an extraordinary event, and became a symbol of Obama's successful engagement with ASEAN leaders. His "pivot" policy has also augmented the US's commitment to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
By attending the Philippines-hosted ASEAN-US Summit, the new US administration would also send a strong signal that Washington still values strategic and security ties with Manila. President Rodrigo Duterte has suggested several times in recent months that he would like his country to distance itself from the US. He also says he wants to scale down the scope of joint US-Philippines military exercises, and even scrap the new agreement on enhanced security cooperation concluded last year under the Aquino administration.
If the new US president decides to skip the trip next November and focuses instead on domestic or other issues, the ASEAN-US relationship will quickly deteriorate as other major powers compete for influence in Asia. Most importantly, Trump will miss the opportunity to meet with other leaders from East Asia, who will join the leaders-only security forum known as the East Asia Summit (EAS).
After the EAS expanded in 2011 to include the US and Russia, the former has dominated the agenda, pushing strategic issues such as counter-terrorism and climate change. In recent months, the regional political and security landscape has shifted in response to growing anxieties about the new direction of US politics. Any indication that the US is paying less attention to the region would severely damage its credibility.
Regional Security
Without Trump, other EAS leaders will fill the vacuum and set the EAS agenda, especially on issues related to a new regional security architecture. It is an open secret that China and Russia are actively promoting their own comprehensive security arrangements.
After Mr Duterte's visit to Beijing last month, the Philippines' relationship with China has improved dramatically. This is despite the July decision by The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration on the South China Sea. Neither side discussed the verdict during the visit; instead they chose to dwell on the future of trade, investment and joint cooperation and development in the disputed maritime areas.
By addressing maritime disputes bilaterally with China, Mr Duterte has done what his predecessors have failed to do: return to ASEAN's long-held position that territorial battles must be settled bilaterally and that other aspects of joint cooperation can be engaged with under the framework of the ASEAN-China relationship.
Salt to the wound
Adding salt to the wound, the expected demise of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a US-led high-end free trade agreement, has demoralised its Asian signatories, especially the four ASEAN members - Brunei, Singapore, Malaysia and Singapore - who placed their faith in the US economy.
President Xi Jinping has adopted an extremely pro-active foreign and economic policy stance, enticing more and more countries into China's sphere of influence. The One Belt, One Road initiative is gradually making inroads as the first continent-wide connectivity scheme. With 57 member countries, the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank is beginning to provide much-needed funds for essential infrastructure projects in the region.
By reducing tensions with China over the maritime disputes these past months, Manila has strengthened China-ASEAN cooperation on the eve of its 25th anniversary. If the trend continues and relationships remain productive, other claimants may move to settle and manage their disputes with China. Malaysia's recent discussion with China over its own maritime issues is a good example. As the Philippines returns to ASEAN's embrace, Mr Duterte will play a crucial role in ASEAN's engagement with the major powers jostling for influence in the region.
It remains to be seen, however, what the Trump administration does with maritime security issues.
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University. This article is part of a series from East Asia Forum (www.eastasiaforum.org) in the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University.
