Killing four empty hours at Guangzhou airport waiting for a China Southern connection to Sydney may not be everyone's idea of fun. For Gina Capella, it was a no-brainer.
The 43-year-old Boston resident and her friend saved hundreds of dollars last year choosing China Southern Airlines over a direct flight from Seoul with Korean Air Lines or Asiana Airlines.
"We didn't mind the layover because it was so much cheaper," she said. "Like, almost half the price."
Chinese airlines are flooding the world with some of the lowest long-haul fares ever seen - and delivering a hammer blow to international carriers trying to keep up.
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From Delta Air Lines and American Airlines in the US, to Cathay Pacific Airways and Korean Air, many operators are feeling the squeeze from the extended reach of mainland Chinese carriers.
They don't just offer cheap fares on routes long-dominated by national airlines like Korean Air. They're also adding hundreds of overseas flights from little-known Chinese cities to airports all over the world.
"Chinese airlines are still hardly scratching the surface of their potential, not just in China, but globally," said Will Horton, a Hong Kong-based analyst at the CAPA Centre for Aviation. "If an airline today cannot compete with or grow alongside a Chinese airline, the future will be bleak."
According to CAPA, mainland Chinese airlines have opened 75 long-haul markets since 2006, led by Air China and Hainan Airlines. More than two-thirds of those routes opened only in the past two years. China's three biggest carriers -- Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern -- are state-controlled and listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
'Critical review'
Cathay, where first-half profit sank 82 per cent as Chinese travellers bypassed its Hong Kong base, is now conducting what it calls a "critical review" of its business.
Delta President Glen Hauenstein told analysts in October that China "continues to be challenged" as capacity growth outpaces demand. American Airlines President Robert Isom said the same month there's "continued weakness in China" as excess capacity seeps into the airline's new services from Los Angeles to Hong Kong, Haneda, Sydney and Auckland.
A round trip with China Eastern between New York and Bangkok, via Shanghai, costs $761, according to Webjet.com. The same trip with United Airlines through Hong Kong costs $955. Flying from Los Angeles to Hong Kong with China Airlines is one third cheaper than with American Airlines.
"US airlines dominated the China-US route in the past, but now it's the Chinese airlines," said Chen Suming, an analyst at Shanghai Chongyang Investment Management. "Most of the new air travellers are from China, not the US."
China Southern is selling flights from Sydney to Seoul, via Guangzhou, for $786. That's more than one third cheaper than flying direct with Qantas Airways. Getting from London to Hanoi in Vietnam, also via Guangzhou, costs just $1108 with China Southern. British Airways charges $1624.
Price isn't everything. Cathay and Singapore Airlines both have a five-star rating for product and service from airline rating system Skytrax. Hainan Airlines is the only mainland Chinese carrier among the world's nine top-rated airlines. National carrier Air China has three stars.
There's little sign the inundation will end. International air routes in China jumped 35 per cent to 660 last year, the Civil Aviation Administration of China said.
For years, the easiest way to get to a second- or third-tier city on the Chinese mainland was to fly to long-established transit centres such as Hong Kong, Shanghai or Beijing and then take a local connection. Now a new world order is emerging.
Chinese carriers in these cities are sidestepping hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong and flying straight to destinations abroad. That poses the biggest threat to airlines such as Cathay and Singapore Air.
This month, Hainan started flying non-stop to Las Vegas from Beijing, its 10th route to North America. Hainan, controlled by billionaire Chen Feng, also operates at least eight flights to European cities. Meanwhile, British Airways is halting its London-Chengdu service in January because it's not viable.
Underlying desire
Demographics partly explains the proliferation of flights from China and the lop-sided, mainly-Chinese flow of passengers. Chengdu has a population of more than 14 million. Even the population of Xiamen, on China's southeast coast across from Taiwan, is getting close to Sydney's 4.3 million.
"While it might not work for foreign carriers to fly to second-tier cities like Chengdu and Xiamen, it will still work for the Chinese because the originating market is very big," said K. Ajith, an analyst at UOB Kay Hian in Singapore. "There's an underlying desire to travel."
That's borne out in forecasts for new aircraft. Chinese airlines will need 6810 new planes valued at $US1 trillion ($1.34 trillion) in the next two decades to meet travel demand, according to Boeing.
Meanwhile, international airlines are seeking to bolster ties with Chinese carriers. Delta invested $US450 million in China Eastern in July 2015 for a 3.6 per cent stake. United Continental this year signed a deal with Air China to improve connections and enhance frequent flier benefits between the airlines.
In Australia, Qantas will next month resume direct flights to Beijing after more than seven years as it expands its alliance with China Eastern. As part of the deal, Qantas will codeshare on China Eastern's Sydney-Hangzhou, Sydney-Kunning and Brisbane-Shanghai services.
The return to the route comes ahead of Virgin Australia's plans to launch services to Beijing and Shanghai next June. Australia's two largest airlines are eager to tap into opportunities in China, which has become Australia's fastest-growing inbound travel market.
'Maxed out'
To be sure, rising fuel prices, spurred by OPEC's production cuts in November, may hold back some of the overseas expansion by China Southern and China Eastern, said Ajith, the analyst at UOB Kay Hian.
"They're profitable, they've had good cost control and they've benefited from low fuel prices," he said. "The only issue is what happens when fuel prices rise?'' At that point, they may switch resources to domestic routes, where they have more price control, he said.
While capacity growth on routes between the US and Shanghai, Beijing or Guangzhou has been "off the charts," Chinese airlines have "maxed out" under the current bilateral agreement, said Kris Kelley, an airline analyst at Bill Gross's Janus Capital Management.
All the same, the Turnbull government announced on December 4 an agreement with China to remove all capacity restrictions between the two nations. In October, Britain agreed to double the number of flights between UK cities and China.
Chinese airlines are improving their business class, too, giving them confidence to compete around the world, according to Horton, the analyst at CAPA. With every new generation of aircraft, that level of service only improves, he said.
Bloomberg with BusinessDay
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