Donald Trump reckons himself a master of the high-stakes gamble. Over the weekend, the US president-elect questioned whether his administration would respect the "One China" policy, by which the US acknowledges just one legitimate Chinese government.

This prompted a robust response from Beijing. Any spat risks hurting Taiwan businesses - and US interests as badly.  

Until Mr Trump's victory in November, China's government was accepted as the one that rules on the mainland. Earlier this month the president-elect broke with protocol by accepting a phone call from Tsai Ing-wen, the president of Taiwan. On that occasion, China reacted with restraint. Like Mr Trump's posturing, Beijing's reaction has escalated. On Monday, China hit back, its foreign ministry denouncing Trump's comments. 

US dependence on Taiwanese manufacturing runs deep. Over the years, as technology companies such as Intel and Dell have invested less in production, they have outsourced to Taiwanese manufacturers.

Nor does their dependence stop at Taiwan's shores. As relations between China and its "renegade province" have thawed, Taiwanese companies' mainland-based facilities have grown. As a result, Apple, dependent on the semiconductor maker TSMC and manufacturer Foxconn (listed in Taiwan as Hon Hai), relies on mainland China too. At end of 2015, three-quarters of Foxconn's fixed assets were across the straits. 

Disrupting these operations would not be hard for China. Failing that, its government is a past master at mobilising public opinion against foreign companies, for misdeeds real or perceived. It is an unwise man who provokes such mobilisation. 

Perhaps Mr Trump believes Taiwan is expendable in his get-tough stance on China. Alternatively, he may think disrupting companies such as Foxconn will bring manufacturing home.

In this game of chicken between China and Mr Trump, it is US companies that risk being run over.