The victory of the billionaire maverick Donald Trump to become 45th President of the United States may well lead to a period of political uncertainty.
But so far, so good, for the personal finances of Australians.
![Obama congratulated President-elect Donald Trump.](/web/20161116010241im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/l/s/l/h/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsmzdz.png/1479102094422.jpg)
Far from Trumpageddon, Mr Trump's pledge to spend hundreds of billion of dollars on building badly needed infrastructure in the US and to cut taxes has been perceived as good for the US economy.
Chris Caton, the chief economist at BT Financial Group, says the single-biggest outcome of the election so far, though it's still very early days, is the reaction of our sharemarket.
"The reaction of the sharemarket is likely to have the biggest affect on our personal finances and so far it has been surprisingly good," Dr Caton says.
Shares
President-elect Trump's promise to spend on infrastructure and to cut taxes has helped the Australian sharemarket more than make up for its losses on the day of the election.
Not only have the share prices of our big resources companies surged, but other Australian companies with big exposures to the US economy have seen their share prices rise sharply this week.
"During the election campaign people have tended to concentrate Trump's outlandish statements and not on the economic positives", says Michael Heffernan, senior client adviser and economist with sharebroker Phillip Capital.
![President Barack Obama shakes hands with president-elect Donald Trump in the Oval Office.](/web/20161116010241im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/m/t/x/o/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsmzdz.png/1479102094422.jpg)
But the massive infrastructure spending has positive implications for the miners whose minerals, for example, go into the making of steel, Heffernan says.
"And Trump's pro-business outlook is also a general positive," Heffernan says.
![As the world waits to see the new face of America, so far so good for Australian investors.](/web/20161116010241im_/http://www.theage.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/t/y/d/k/image.related.articleLeadNarrow.300x0.gsmzdz.png/1479102094422.jpg)
Since the election result, the share prices of BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals are up almost 10 per cent.
The share prices of other companies with exposure to the US, such as QBE insurance and the global biotherapy company, CSL, are also substantially higher.
BT Financial Group's Caton cautions that while our market is doing well, there is "no question that there will be continued volatility".
"Part of the market reaction is just that 'at least we know now' the outcome of the election," he says.
But whether the good performance of our market is the start of a longer trend remains very much to be seen, he says.
Super
Adam Gee, the chief executive of researcher SuperRatings, says there is "no doubt" the global environment remains challenging.
He does not believe that a single person, even if that person is the President of the United States, can impact the global investment environment alone.
But there is an expectation that there will be greater volatility in markets in the coming months as Mr Trump's policies become clearer, he says.
"For super fund members, it remains important to focus on longer-term returns in volatile markets, given any knee-jerk investment switching reaction to short-term fluctuations may impact savings at retirement," he says.
Dollar and travel
The Australian dollar is holding firm near US76¢ with higher iron ore and coal prices providing support to our dollar.
Mr Trump's populist protectionist polices are a worry for Australia, says Craig James, the chief economist at CommSec.
He says a more isolationist trade policy in the US would be negative for the global economy more broadly, and especially for trade-reliant nations like Australia.
If the US adopted a more confrontationist policy toward China, that would place downward pressure on the Aussie dollar, James says.
While that would be bad for overseas travellers whose Australian dollars would not buy as much, a weaker Australian dollar would help export sectors.
Shane Oliver, the chief economist at AMP Capital Investors, says US interest rates are on track to rise in December and there is nothing in the Trump victory that is likely to change that.
Rate rise in the US will likely push down the value of our dollar against the US dollar, Dr Oliver says.
Mr Trump's stimulus of the US economy will probably push inflation higher and likely mean even higher US interest rates down the track, decreasing the value of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, Oliver says.
Interest rates
Most economists say that the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely not cut rates until the first half next year, but they don't think that the election of Mr Trump will have a bearing on the timing of the next cut.
With another cut on the way, those with variable-rate mortgages would probably be looking at holding off on switching to a fixed-rates mortgage.
Record-low interest rates have been a major driver of the rising property prices. And if there was to be a sharp increase in interest rates, house prices would probably fall given the high level of household indebtedness, economists say.
The Canadian immigration website crashed after it become clear that Mr Trump would become president.
Oliver says wealthy Americans could seek to relocate to Australia in the wake of the Trump victory and that could push up house prices, at least in our wealthier suburbs.
Petrol prices
Short term, the oil price is likely to be much more influenced by OPEC cutting production at its meeting later this month.
If that happens, the price at the pump in Australia will probably rise by 5¢ or 10¢ a litre, Oliver says.
The Trump effect may be longer term as he wants to reduce regulation on US energy producers, which may boost the supply of US oil and gas which may, over time, put downward pressure on oil prices, he says.
Paul Bloxham, HSBC chief economist for Australia and New Zealand, says, however, that oil prices are likely to rise next year and that would increase prices at the bowser.
Gold
Given the uncertainty of what Mr Trump will actually do as president, will he be the pragmatist businessman or the populist protectionist, there is probably more upside to the gold price, Bloxham says.
Longer term, if Mr Trump stimulates the US economy with tax cuts and infrastructure spending, that will mean potentially higher inflation over time.
Bloxham says that is usually a positive for gold, which is a hedge against higher inflation but it will mainly be the ongoing uncertainty of not knowing how much of Trump's campaign will become policy that will support the gold price.
Remember Brexit
Caton says investors should be careful of making snap investment decisions on events, including the election of Mr Trump.
"These things temporarily interrupt but usually don't dictate the long-term movement of markets," Caton says.
Oliver says that global economic growth indicators have been improving lately, providing a buffer for political shocks.
Investors should keep in mind the experience of Brexit, the vote by Britons to leave the European Union in June. In the wake of the Brexit vote, sharemarkets fell initially only to see shares quickly recover, Oliver says.
"It was reminder not to make knee-jerk investment decisions," Oliver says.