By Tony Wright
Counting your Senate votes before they're laid like warm googy eggs on the dispatch box has always been a bad idea, but it's never been as fraught as now when the Senate has become a barnyard of headless chooks.
It makes you wonder about the quality of smarts in the government that this is precisely what took place before votes were hatched concerning the backpacker tax, only to see the whole exercise smash to bits, yolk running off senior ministers' faces in every direction.
What is even more peculiar is that a shambles was perfectly predictable.
On Monday, One Nation's Pauline Hanson and her Queensland colleague Malcolm Roberts were hoisting Christmas decorations for the media when talk turned to the backpacker tax.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce and his Nationals colleagues lauded the deal on Monday but it was defeated in the Senate on Wednesday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
So excited were most of the press gallery hacks about One Nation's Christmas poster (featuring a yuletide fire fuelled by Queensland coal and designed to roast the Greens) that only two microphones turned up.
What the microphones of Fairfax Radio's Stephanie Borys and the Seven Network's Amelia Brace picked up (and later published on this website) should have sent warning signals clear through the government.
The conversation showed very clearly that within One Nation, where crucial votes reside, no one could agree on anything.
Senator Hanson had previously agreed to support the government's compromise for a 15 per cent tax, but appeared to be having second thoughts. And Malcolm Roberts thought he knew better.
Controversial One Nation Senator Rod Culleton ended up voting against the so-called deal as feathers flew.Credit: Alex Ellinghasusen
Hanson mused that she actually thought the tax should start at 12 per cent when Roberts butted in.
"Ten point five per cent, you mean," he corrected.
Hanson looked as happy as if he'd led her to a dead spot on the Great Barrier Reef. "No," she corrected him. "I think it's too low."
Roberts had, a minute earlier, revealed the unhappy news that Senator Hanson and her party's West Australian representative, the colourful Rod Culleton, hadn't talked at all about another piece of critical legislation.
Senators Hanson and Culleton only last week insisted that all was fine in their relationship, despite Hanson earlier freezing out the West Australian when it became clear his continued presence in the Senate was a matter for the High Court.
Hanson was expounding on why she supported legislation to re-establish Australian Building Construction Commission: it was to rein in "union thuggery".
"Do you know if Rod Culleton will vote with the party on the ABCC legislation?" she was asked. "Well," began Senator Hanson, "I haven't got anything from …."
"He's told me he has; he will be," chimed in Senator Roberts, helpfully.
"So you've spoken with him?" Senator Hanson said, possibly less than thrilled that a subordinate knew more than she did.
Roberts merrily continued, declaring that the ABCC was more about controlling the behaviour of the big building companies than the CFMEU – a statement that didn't seem to mesh perfectly with Hanson's view that it was about union thugs.
What government strategists could have taken out of this conversation was clear:
One Nation's senators were free-ranging and didn't have a clue about where they might end up.
Nevertheless, the government crowed that it had a winning deal. Treasurer Scott Morrison squawked that "it doesn't matter what the Labor Party thinks now ... frankly the Labor Party can go and take a flying leap".
Rod Culleton ended up voting against the so-called deal, feathers flew and now yolk is dripping from the Treasurer's face.
Anyone surprised?