TPP: Trade pact dead, buried, cremated amid Donald Trump presidency
Updated
It was an ambitious and controversial trade pact that would have covered nearly 40 per cent of the global economy and solidified US leadership in the Asia-Pacific.
Key points:
- TPP would have delivered valuable new markets for Australian beef, wheat, dairy industry
- Other 11 TPP nations could conceivably forge ahead without US
- Julie Bishop says "no indication" Mr Trump will reconsider agreement
But Donald Trump's victory in the United States' presidential election has likely killed off the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which the Turnbull Government promised would deliver valuable new markets for Australian beef, wheat and dairy.
Pro-traders in the US and within the Obama administration had held out hope that regardless of who won the US election, the TPP could be ratified by a 'lame duck' session of Congress — held after the election, but before the new president is sworn in.
The chance of that happening was always slim, after a presidential campaign that inflamed and fed on anti-trade sentiment.
But the victory of that movement's most vehement advocate in the US presidential election, pushes that chance beyond the plausible.
Opposition to the controversial Pacific trade pact was a centrepiece of Mr Trump's campaign from the start, and it will surely be irretrievably sunk the moment he takes the oath of office on January 20.
The agreement, seven years in the making, was the jewel in the crown of the Obama administration's "pivot to Asia" — a plan to cement American leadership and influence in the Pacific region.
The 11 other TPP nations could conceivably forge ahead without the US, but that seems unlikely given much of the agreement's appeal was better access to the vast US economy.
The broader ramifications of a Trump presidency for global trade could be considerable.
He has promised to formally label China a "currency manipulator", and vowed to pursue trade cases against China at the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
'No indication Trump would renegotiate': Bishop
The Peterson Institute for International Economics in the US reported Mr Trump's trade policies could trigger trade wars with China and Mexico, and lead to a recession costing 4 million American jobs.
Mr Trump promised he would renegotiate international trade agreements if he won the White House, and argued that agreements like NAFTA — the North America trade pact covering the US, Canada and Mexico — were directly responsible for rust belt job losses and the decline of American manufacturing.
Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop told the ABC she did not believe Australia's 11-year-old trade agreement with the US would be at the top of the list for renegotiation.
"There is no indication that Donald Trump would want to renegotiate the Australia-US free trade agreement," she said.
"We run a trade deficit with the United States. The US has a considerable surplus so it's unlikely to change.
"In relation to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is a regional agreement, we are concerned that both candidates were opposed to the agreement in its current form."
Ms Bishop said Australia continued to urge the US Congress to ratify the TPP in its session during the transition period before Mr Trump's swearing-in.
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Topics: us-elections, event, business-economics-and-finance, australia, united-states
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