Brexit: Questions surround Europe's future as UK embarks on adventure into the unknown

Updated June 25, 2016 13:29:17

The world can change in a matter of hours.

The chaotic markets, the plunging pound, the uncertainty of what it all means will do nothing to encourage stability and just about every economy, including Australia's.

David Cameron's gamble has come at a high price — his job. When in 2013 he diffused the political pressure mounting from within his own Conservative Party and the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) for a referendum, he would have felt secure in the knowledge the polls were a safe stay bet.

But after a relentless campaign by the Leave camp, led by his former drinking buddy Boris Johnson, aided and abetted by much of the conservative press, that long lead became a narrow deficit, and now, the reality of what Mr Cameron warned was a one-way ticket to who knows where.

Supporters of the Leave campaign point to Britain's falling economic reliance on the economically torpid EU and the huge potential of the Commonwealth-linked emerging markets like India.

Released from the consensus of Brussels, new bilateral deals could now be done with any country Britain chooses, including Australia.

And, goes the Brexit narrative, freed of the shackles Britain can become a beacon of prosperity and economic opportunity that would have otherwise been unable to negotiate.

The whole country will now be hoping all that goes to plan. In the early hours after the vote was completed, investors rushed to the door. Not to get in but out.

These are early days and the full ramifications of this democratic decision will be played out in years, not days.

And it may not be just an economic and Westminster political drama playing out ahead.

It is pretty clear with Scotland having voted in favour of remaining, that the Scottish National Party will almost certainly argue for a second go at independence.

After all, they will no doubt say, "We wanted in, the southerners voted out".

So, their desire to stay in the EU should be put to the test in another referendum.

Likewise, those in Northern Ireland who support union with the Republic of Ireland, will offer the same logic.

Not only will Britain face finding its new place in the global economy, it may end up being a slimmed down version with an independent Scotland looking to keep its ties to Europe.

But like all the big questions surrounding this seismic upheaval, no-one really has all the answers, or even some of them.

This is new territory, so in requiring such a detangling of ties over the designated two-year period, almost anything can happen.

Though the Russian authorities say they want a strong EU, President Vladimir Putin must be pleased with the fractures now on glaring display in the West.

And the UK may not be the end of it. Denmark and the Netherlands could follow Britain's example.

Brexit 'an adventure into the unknown'

Add to that the continuing pressures of migrants, the rise of the nationalist right in many countries, and the dream of a united entity with peace and prosperity at its core, the EU is under pressure as never before.

How could the notion of leaving "Club Europe" have taken hold so readily? The answer is uncomfortable for the Remain camp.

The EU is an unwieldy beast that has minted gold medals for itself in the art of bureaucratic nonsense.

And the overriding of national justice systems has been a constant source of frustration for many governments.

It all made for easy pickings for large parts of the British media who made a good living, in part, by continent-bashing.

But what is lost? That will become clearer over the next few months.

And the gains? Again, the jury is not only out, it has not yet been selected. This is an adventure into the unknown.

It may turn out well for the UK. But if it does not, as the now outgoing Prime Minister warned us, there is no going back.

Topics: world-politics, government-and-politics, referendums, united-kingdom

First posted June 24, 2016 23:49:21