The Reserve Bank has kept its cash rate on hold in the lead-up to Christmas, playing down concerns over sliding business investment and a likely collapse in economic growth to keep the rate at 1.5 per cent.
This is enough to keep standard variable home loan rates near 5 per cent and discounted home loan rates near 4.15 per cent.
Official growth figures will be released on Wednesday. Market economists are expecting the data to show the economy either barely grew in the September quarter or went backwards.
"In Australia, the economy is continuing its transition following the mining investment boom," the RBA said in a statement on Tuesday.
Ahead of Tuesday's board meeting, governor Philip Lowe said he had overruled members of his staff who thought the economy could benefit from a cut because of concern about extraordinarily fast home price growth in Sydney and Melbourne.
Photo: Ben Rushton"Some slowing in the year-ended growth rate is likely, before it picks up again.
"The outlook for business investment remains subdued, although measures of business sentiment remain above average."
Commonwealth Securities economist Craig James said: "If the economy did go backwards [in the September quarter], it will serve as a wake-up call for Australia's politicians."
"The message from consumers and businesses is that the major parties need to flesh out reforms, especially on taxation, that will give Australians confidence to spend, invest and employ."
Mining investment slid another 7 per cent in the quarter, manufacturing investment another 5 per cent, and services investment another 2 per cent. Forecasts for economic growth in the quarter range from positive 0.2 per cent to minus 0.2 per cent.
Balance of payments figures released as the RBA board met showed exports rose 0.3 per cent in the September quarter, and imports 1.3 per cent - enough to slice 0.2 points off quarterly GDP growth.
In its statement, the RBA reiterated that inflation remained below most central banks' targets but said "globally, the outlook for inflation is more balanced than it has been for some time".
In Australia, "the continuing subdued growth in labour costs means that inflation is expected to remain low for some time, before returning to more normal levels".
The bank said conditions in the housing market had strengthened overall but noted that considerable supply of apartments was due to come on stream over the next few years.
Keeping interest rates on hold until the next RBA board meeting in February will allow the board to react to two months of developments, including a December US Federal Reserve board meeting considered certain to tighten US rates, the inauguration of US president-elect Donald Trump, and an update on Australia's ultra-low inflation rate of 1.3 per cent.
CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said building the case for a cut were sluggish inflation, the likelihood of a low or even negative GDP reading, record low wage growth of 1.9 per cent in the year to September and the loss of about 50,000 full-time jobs in the year to October. The case against includes a rebound in housing markets and housing investor activity, a surge in commodity prices, and potentially a lower Australian dollar as the US prepares to lift rates.
Futures market pricing has an interest rate cut remaining more likely than an increase until November 2017, when an increase becomes much more likely, becoming a near-certainty by mid-2018.
"The RBA is certainly on watch at this stage," JPMorgan analyst Tom Kennedy told Reuters.
"I do think, though, that for the next meeting in two months...the burden is on the data to improve a little bit or stabilise. And if that doesn't happen then the RBA could consider lowering the cash rate early in 2017."
Treasurer Scott Morrison will release updated economic forecasts in the mid-year budget review on December 19.