Italy goes to the polls to answer high-stakes constitutional referendum
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Italians go to the polls this weekend to answer a high-stakes referendum question that has huge implications.
Not only Italy, but the entire Eurozone, could be destabilised if voters decide to reject constitutional change.
It could spell the end for Prime Minister Matteo Renzi and bring down his Government.
What are they voting for?
Here's the question:
- Do you approve the text of the Constitutional Law concerning "Provisions for overcoming equal bicameralism, reducing the number of Members of Parliament, limiting the operating costs of the institutions, the suppression of the CNEL and the revision of Title V of Part II of the Constitution" approved by Parliament and published in the Official Gazette no. 88 of 15 April 2016?
The referendum question is wordy and complex, asking Italians if they want to reform their constitution, reduce the size and powers of the senate and the amount of control held by regional politicians.
They only need to answer "yes" or "no".
But it has become a vote of confidence in Mr Renzi and his Government.
One hundred thousand Australian-Italians are eligible to vote.
The 'yes' case
Mr Renzi said his proposed reforms would simplify bureaucracy and enable legislation to pass through parliament quicker and make the country competitive.
He has threatened to quit if the referendum question goes down.
The 41-year-old told voters the opportunity for another vote will not come around again soon and it was "now or never".
The 'no' case
The two populist anti-establishment parties, Lega Nord and Five Star Movement (5SM), have campaigned hard for a "no" vote.
They say regional governments would lose control and it would lead to an excessive centralisation of power.
Five Star Movement, lead by former comedian Beppe Grillo, has been creeping up in the polls.
It holds power on the city councils of Rome and Turin.
What's the worst that could happen?
A "no" vote could rattle the markets and force a run on Italy's banks that are already heavily indebted.
This vote is being seen by some as the biggest threat to the EU since Brexit.
It could spark a chain of events including the resignation of Mr Renzi, and some fear it could end with Italy leaving the Eurozone.
Why has this become a big deal?
Because after Brexit and the success of Donald Trump every vote seems unpredictable and can have a domino effect.
Toss in a threat by a prime minister to resign and there is a level of uncertainty that has given people the jitters.
There are a lot of similarities to former British prime minister David Cameron; two prime ministers called referendums at the peak of their popularities and faced being crushed by them.
There are a string of important European elections ahead in the next 12 months in Europe in the Netherlands, France and Germany.
Should we panic?
Not yet, according to Andrea Montanino from the Atlantic Council, who said a no vote will not spell the beginning of the end of the Eurozone or the European Project.
"Europe has faced far more problematic and challenging situations," he wrote.
Mr Montanino is also the former executive director of the International Monetary Fund.
He said after the financial crises in Greece and Portugal, the rescue of the Spanish banking system and the refugee crisis, European leaders have found their way through the mess.
"Although not always in a linear, straightforward and clear manner," he added.
What could decide it?
How many people turn out to vote, according to Remo Nogarotto, managing director of political advisors the Crosby Textor Group.
"Renzi sensing a looming political disaster has pulled out all stops in the last few weeks urging his supporters to get out on referendum day with their friends and families and vote Yes," he said.
"He's also appealed to those Italians abroad who are eligible to vote to also exercise a vote in favour of Yes."
Mr Nogarotto, who is watching it firsthand from Milan, said the Prime Minister has sounded progressively more shrill as Sunday's vote edges closer.
Topics: referendums, constitution, government-and-politics, italy
