Antony Green's Election Blog

Coverage of Canterbury, Orange and Wollongong By-elections

From 6pm I'm doing live results coverage of the by-elections for the NSW state seats of Canterbury, Orange and Wollongong.

Follow these links for the Canterbury results, the Orange results and Wollongong results.

US Election - Close of Poll Times

The table below sets out the best estimate of when results by state will be available on Wednesday 9 November.

States crossing more than one time zone create complications on the release of results. Sometimes results are delayed until the second time zone reports. Others states release results as soon as part of the state closes, but the national television networks hold off calling a result until all polls in the state are closed.

So by time zone and current polling position, here are all the states.

What Happens if Bob Day is Disqualified as a Senate Candidate?

The tangled case of Senator (now ex-Senator) Bob Day becomes ever more complex for the Turnbull government.

The government intends to ask the Senate to refer his qualification as a Senator to the High Court to determine whether he has breached Section 44(v) of the Constitution; which states:

"Any person who ... Has any direct or indirect pecuniary interest in any agreement with the Public Service of the Commonwealth otherwise than as a member and in common with the other members of an incorporated company consisting of more than twenty five person ... shall be incapable of being chosen or of sitting as a senator or a member of the House of Representatives."

This is relevant because Senator Day's office is in a building that he has an interest in, and the Commonwealth's contract for the office may therefore be a matter that is a pecuniary interest for Day.

Even though Senator Day has resigned, the question remains as to whether he was qualified to be elected on 2 July.

Why Are So Many Wrong Ballot Papers Issued at Australian Federal Elections?

At last July's Federal election, at least 150,000 Australians were given the wrong ballot paper for the House of Representatives election.

In the electorate of Herbert, won by Labor with a margin of just 37 votes, more than 450 extra Senate votes were recorded, a figure that can represent people given the wrong House ballot paper.

Compare these numbers to the fuss in Senate Estimates last week over the much smaller 18,000 names marked off the electoral roll more than once. Very few of these would have been multiple votes, most being due to clerical error.

Yet a much larger number of incorrectly issued ballot papers is passed over without comment when a solution to the problem is already in use at state elections.

2016 ACT Election - Elected Members by Interim Preference Distribution

Until the last postal vote is received and the last first preference vote tallied, the ACT Electoral Commission cannot set the quota for election or declare any candidates elected.

The close of postal votes will be Friday 21 October.

However, unlike similar counts elsewhere, the ACT Electoral Commission is able to release interim distributions of preferences. The first of these was released on Saturday night and further releases will take place from Tuesday through to Friday.

Saturday night's distribution was based on electronic pre-poll and electronic on the day votes. The ACT Electoral Commission is now engaged in scanning all paper ballots, which increases the the pool of electronic ballot papers. Each new distribution will include these additional ballot papers.

In the tables below I will keep track of the candidates and the order of election with each provisional distribution of preferences. As already noted in my previous post, there will be some changes to the identity and the order of election of candidates. This change is most likely to occur amongst the names of elected Labor candidates. 

Update Tuesday 18 October: Scanned ballot papers added for the following polling places - Ainslie, Ainslie North and Amaroo ballot papers. Most of these votes added are for the largely decided Kurrajong and Yerrabi electorates. There is little change from Sunday's distribution.

Update Wednesday 19 October: Scanned ballot papers added for the following polling places - Aranda, Belconnen, Belconnen Pre-poll, Barton, Bonner,  Bonython, Bruce East, Calvary Hospital, Calwell, Campbell, Chapman, Charnwood North, Chisholm, City East, Conder, Coombs, and Curtin. The order candidates are declared elected in Ginnenderra changes but the same 25 members are elected.

Update Thursday 20 October:The totals now include 48 of the 92 polling places. Gordon Ramsay has supplanted Chris Bourke as the third Labor members in Ginninderra. There are changes to the order some candidates are elected, but the counts confirm the likely election result is Labor 12 seats, Liberal 11, Greens two.

Update Friday 21 October: All polling places included. Only Postal and declaration votes remain to be entered.

22 October - final figures.

ACT Election Updates

(Update Friday 21 October: All polling place results are now included in the preference distribution. Only postal and declaration votes remain to be added. No change from yesterday's predictions which now look final.)

(Update Thursday 20 October: Further counting confirms Nicole Lawder's victory for the third Liberal seat in Brindabella and continues to point to the Greens defeating the third Liberal in the race for the final seat in Murrumbidgee. Gordon Ramsay supplants Chris Bourke for the third Liberal seat in Ginninenderra, where Elizabeth Kikkert maintains a narrow preference lead for fellow Liberal Paul Sweeney for the second Liberal seat. This second Liberal seat in Ginninderra is now the only seat where any doubt remains.)

(Update Wednesday 19 October: Nearly half the votes in each electorate have now been incorporated into the distribution of preferences. Nicole Lawder's chances of winning the third Liberal seat in Brindabella have been greatly increased, but the last seat between the Greens and the third Liberal in Murrumbidgee has narrowed substantially and is now in doubt.)

(Update Tuesday 18 October: Ainslie, Ainslie North and Amaroo ballot papers have been scanned and added to the electronic distribution. Most of these votes are for the largely decided Kurrajong and Yerrabi. There is little change from Sunday's distribution in Brindabella, Ginninderra or Murrumbidgee.)

(Monday 17 October - no significant changes from today's counting apart from a strengthening in the position of Nicole Lawder in the race for a third Liberal seat in Brindabella. The next distribution of preferences will be released on Tuesday evening.)

Admidst the bedlam of election night, I did not get chance to look at the distribution of preferences for electronic votes published by the ACT Electoral Commission on election night.

Having had a chance to look at them this morning, it is possible to draw a clearer picture of the results.

At the end of election night the numbers I published were Labor 11, Liberal 10 and Greens 1. With the help of the distribution of preferences, it is possible to firm up Labor as having won a third and the final seat in Ginninderra, while the preference distribution makes clear that the Greens are well ahead in the race for the final spot in Murrumbidgee.

That puts the numbers at Labor 12, Liberal 10 Greens two. The last spot in Brindabella is favoured to be won by the Liberal Party, but there is enough difference in the final figures to the distribution of preferences to leave the seat in doubt after an unexpectedly strong showing from the Australian Sex Party. (It now appears to be a final result of 12 Labor, 11 Liberal and two Greens.)

Let me run through each of the seats.

The Distribution of Preferences under the ACT's Hare-Clark System

Saturday night's ACT election is conducted under the Hare-Clark electoral system, like the Senate a form of Proportional Representation by Single Transferable Vote (PR-STV). Both Hare-Clark and the Senate elect members by proportional representation based on quotas and preferences

However, where Senate elections are overwhelmingly about votes cast for parties, Hare-Clark is a system based on votes for candidates. While most voters will still choose a candidate based on their party affiliation, ACT ballot papers require that candidate be chosen and parties have little say over which of their candidates will be elected.

Like the Senate ballot paper, ACT ballot paper list candidates in groups. However, Senate ballot papers have the above-the-line party voting option and parties determine the order candidates are listed in their group.

At ACT elections there is no above the line option and the order candidates are listed in each group is randomised by a process called Robson rotation. There are 60 versions of the ballot paper in each of the ACT's five electorates, randomising the preferences of so-called 'linear' votes, ballot papers completed by voters numbering 1 to 5 down a party's column.

Along with the ban on distributing how-to-vote material within 100 metres of a polling place, the lack of a party vote makes name recognition important, even for major party candidates. Candidates are competing not only against candidate of other parties, but also against candidates from their own party.

How Voters Reacted to the Senate's New Electoral System

In Summary

• 81.2% of Senate ballot papers had six preferences above the line, 6.6% had fewer than six ATL preferences, 5.6% had more, and 6.5% of ballot papers were completed below the line.
• The rate of below the line voting rose from 3.5% to 6.5% nationally, including from 10.3% to 28.1% in Tasmania where for the first time in decades voters elected Senators in a different order to the ballot paper listing.
• Despite warnings that more than three million voters would be disenfranchised by the new system, at worst only about 800,000  or a quarter of minor party votes would have exhausted under a notional half-Senate election.
• Warning - this is a long and detailed post.

If you are interested in this topic, I am discussing the new electoral system at ANU on Wednesday 12 October from 3-5pm. Detail here.

Canterbury, Orange and Wollongong NSW By-elections

I've just posted background on the Canterbury, Orange and Wollongong by-elections to be held on 12 November.

The Canterbury and Orange by-elections have been caused by the resignations and election to the House of Representatives of respectively Linda Burney (Labor) and Andrew Gee (National).

The Wollongong by-election has been caused by the resignation of the at times controversial Labor MP Noreen Hay.

Canterbury should be safely retained by the Labor Party, but the other two seats could be interesting. In Orange the Nationals are facing a strong challenge on the back of the Baird government's decision to ban greyhound racing. In Wollongong Labor is being challenged by the Independent Mayor of Wollongong Gordon Bradbery in a seat that has regularly seen strong challenges to Labor from Independents.

The backgrounds can be found here, and there will be full coverage of the by-elections at that site on 12 November.

Plebiscites in Australian History

In proposing to hold a national vote on changing the definition of marriage, the Turnbull government is embarking on a course of action rarely used by the Commonwealth.

Changing the definition of marriage is entirely within the power of Parliament to do. The vote will not decide the definition of marriage as Parliament would still have to legislate if the nation votes yes.

The parliament can also ignore the result of the vote. A yes vote could be followed by the parliament not legislating, and the Parliament could later change the definition of marriage even if the public votes no.

But while votes on policy issues are rare at the Commonwealth level, they have been used more frequently at state level.

Summary of Candidates and Parties Contesting 2016 ACT Election

A record 141 candidates will contest the 2016 ACT election, beating the previous records of 117 candidates at the first ACT election in 1989 under the Modified D'Hondt electoral system. The most candidates to contest a Hare-Clark election was 108 in 1998.

The record number of candidates is largely due to the increase in the size of the Legislative Assembly from 17 to 25 seats.

The number of candidates per vacancy is 5.6, which is only the third highest at an ACT election. The table below shows the vacancies, candidates and candidates per vacancy at all elections since 1989.