Angela Merkel makes bid to run as German chancellor again as political challenges stack up
Updated
Europe's paramount leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will take one of the biggest gambles of her 11-year reign this week.
As leader of Europe's biggest economy, she is standing for party endorsement to run again as chancellor for a fourth term.
After ruthlessly shunting aside any possible challengers from within her Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and opposition parties failing to produce any credible candidates, Ms Merkel is the clear favourite to win the election set down for next September.
The risks lie in facing down the immense challenges of social cohesion in her own country, and the unity of Europe itself.
"She is actually a figure of stability for Germany in these uneasy times — both internationally and domestically," said Gottfried Ludewig, a CDU party delegate who backs her re-endorsement.
"It's important for Germany to retain a strong leader."
Mr Ludewig is one of a new breed of young party members who have come of political age during the Merkel era.
This week's congress marks the ninth time Ms Merkel has been elected CDU party chief. The last time, she secured 96.7 per cent of the vote.
The size of this week's vote will reveal how much her standing has suffered as a result of the refugee crisis that hit the nation last year, triggering deep divisions within her party.
'Angela Merkel is no longer invincible'
Ms Merkel regularly faces wrath at CDU events over her decision last year to declare, "we can deal with it", as she opened Germany's doors to nearly 900,000 refugees fleeing wars in the Middle East and Africa.
The decision was in line with the German constitution, but proved to be extremely divisive.
Last Thursday during a 'virtual' town hall meeting with party stalwarts, one member said he feared for his family's future after so many newcomers arrived.
"I take your fears seriously and acknowledge your criticism," Ms Merkel replied to the 800-strong meeting, dominated by questions about refugees.
A slide in her vote next Tuesday will signal she is losing her grip on the party she has dominated for 16 years and, possibly, the beginning of the end of the Merkel era.
"Angela Merkel is no longer invincible," said Thomas Oppermann, leader of the left-leaning Social Democrats, both a rival of the CDU and junior member of the governing coalition.
"The parliamentary election is up for grabs."
Anti-immigration AfD party has growing support
The Trump factor is being weighed in.
Last month's upset presidential win by New York billionaire Donald Trump showed anything is possible. A swing to populist right-wing parties has unleashed fears of another rogue result that would threaten the European Union (EU).
After a string of stunning state election successes, the new anti-foreigner Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now Germany's third major political force, with about 12 per cent of the national vote.
While the AfD has been celebrating Mr Trump's win, some political analysts believe the country's Nazi past will hamper its future prospects.
"There won't be a Trump in Germany," said Hajo Funke, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University.
But the CDU's Gottfried Ludewig says the party must actively work against the threat posed by the AfD.
"It depends how good we can demonstrate what plans we have for Germany — that we want to make Germany fit for the future," he said.
This would include an overhaul of the country's massively ailing infrastructure.
'World is changing around Merkel'
Once widely known as "Mutti" Merkel, she has walked on a big stage for years as de-facto leader of the EU, but now her cupboard is looking a little bare.
She appears to lack clear plans to deal with the major international challenges and political risks piling up at her feet.
"The world is changing around Merkel," said Heribert Dieter, an analyst with the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
"It's going to be a very tough year.
"She is facing problems in virtually every aspect of international affairs — Brexit, Italy, the US, even Greece could bounce back.
"But she does not seem to have a strategic vision."
French election could have major consequences for Merkel
One of the biggest risks ahead is posed by the May presidential election in France.
Growing anti-European feelings in Germany's number-one ally will influence the vote, and it may result in the election of Francois Fillon, a convinced conservative with a Thatcherite economic reform plan for France.
Mr Fillon's election, argues Mr Dieter, would fire up Ms Merkel's internal critics who say she has drifted too close to the Social Democrats, and shied away from rigorous economic reform.
Germany has emerged as Europe's preeminent economic and political power since the breaching of the Berlin Wall in 1989.
If Ms Merkel fails to master the current challenges, or stumbles, it could accelerate the unravelling of the EU, which has been at the heart of German policy since World War II.
Germany's current political strength on the European, and for that matter, the world stage, is in part derived from the respect that Ms Merkel has gained as a crisis manager.
If she can see off the current challenges she will reaffirm her position as Europe's undisputed leader.
If she fails, it will not only be her undoing, but many have warned it risks the guarantee of peace provided by European unity, in a continent which has already suffered two terrible wars.
Topics: world-politics, immigration, germany
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