The Weather Man

National: We should be moving into a wetter pattern

Rainfall - The chance of above median for May to July

The Bureau of Meteorology issued the latest 3 month Climate Outlook today and it suggests a definite shift from the recent dry conditions to more regular and potentially widespread above median falls across most of the non tropical areas with June and July looking to be the more active months as opposed to May where decent falls look to be patchier.

The pattern of rainfall would suggest an active period of North West Cloud Bands which sees the jet stream feed tropical moisture from thunderstorms near Indonesia into troughs and fronts crossing the south of the continent and feeding widespread rain bands. These systems are quite complex and need several aspects of development to occur in set order but it will be well worth watching for the tell tale cloud bands spreading from the north west to the eastern states in the coming months.

There are some exceptions including which include Tasmania, southern Victoria and the south west of Western Australia with these areas less likely to record above the median rainfall.

Temperatures will be impacted by any rain and cloud with maximums expected to be closer to normal in the wetter areas but above median minimum temperatures in all areas with the cloud and moisture levels reducing the potential for much colder nights and warmer days elsewhere also providing a warmer potential away from the cloud and rain.

To see the full details and maps go to the BoM climate outlooks here. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/rainfall/median/seasonal/0

Warmest March in the Global record and now is April the new March?

Every State and Territory is experiencing widespread areas of above average maximum and minimum temperatures so far this April and the current forecast models looking out to the end of the month are offering no expectation of a significant cold outbreak developing until perhaps the last 2 days of the month.

Every recording site in Queensland, Northern Territory and New South Wales are currently recording above average maximum temperatures. Apart from Casterton in Victoria all other sites are warmer than average. In Tasmania the only stations with a cooler than normal maximum average so far this month are Butlers Gorge, Mt Hartz, Mt Reid and Warra. South Australia and Western Australia have a broader mix with above average temperatures not as high as in the other states but even in South Australia only 8 stations are at or below average. Minimums are following very similar trends with the majority of sites much warmer than usual.

These warmer conditions are in part due to well above average water temperatures surrounding the continent, a lack of strong cold fronts drawing cold air across the nation and the persistent heating of northern Australia after a very poor wet season and not to mention the impact of human induced climate change.

For more on the Global Records read here 

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/warmest-march-in-global-recordkeeping-2016-roars-ahead-of-pack

 

 

 

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston could intensify further next 24 hours.

The latest information form the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suggests that TC Winston will remain in a region with conditions favorable for further intensification over the next 24 hours. Even if the current cat 4 strength is maintained any significant weakening is not expected for around 72 hours when the Cyclone takes a more southerly turn as a high pressure ridge maintaining its current movement breaks down. This turn will move the Cyclone over more unfavorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear. There is good consensus in the forecast model guidance. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1116web.txt

There are widespread wind, rain and sea state warnings across the Fiji Islands with a tropical cyclone alert in force for the Lomaiviti group, Kadavu, eastern half of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands.

Current condition at Lupepau'u Airport on Vava'u (Northern Tonga) are still gale force winds with gusts around 100 to 110km/h

Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone Winston could intensify further next 24 hours.

The latest information form the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre suggests that TC Winston will remain in a region with conditions favorable for further intensification over the next 24 hours. Even if the current cat 4 strength is maintained any significant weakening is not expected for around 72 hours when the Cyclone takes a more southerly turn as a high pressure ridge maintaining its current movement breaks down. This turn will move the Cyclone over more unfavorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric wind shear. There is good consensus in the forecast model guidance. http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1116web.txt

There are widespread wind, rain and sea state warnings across the Fiji Islands with a tropical cyclone alert in force for the Lomaiviti group, Kadavu, eastern half of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands.

Current condition at Lupepau'u Airport on Vava'u (Northern Tonga) are still gale force winds with gusts around 100 to 110km/h

National: Call out for your weather questions

 

I am hosting a 2 hour Radio program just after Australia all over Sun 10th Jan. It will be all Weather and I will be taking calls. Would love to get some advance questions though so send them in especially if you in the Central or western states as the program is live and will be over by the time it airs in WA. If you get your question in in advance we will do as many as possible so you will still get the answer.

National: Wet start to November for parts of the country.

October was a month of record heat and record dry for large areas of the continent but the last few days of that month saw some decent rain falling which has continued into November with widespread areas of the country currently recording average monthly rainfall and some pockets of well above average falls.

 

There is more rainfall on the way in the coming week but the heavier falls will be mostly confined to the far south east of the mainland with the higher totals quite patchy and mostly expected with isolated thunderstorms. The heavy falls in eastern WA are expected to be patchy and associated with afternoon thunderstorms on Monday tending lighter and more isolated as the week progresses and generally clearing to the Kimberley by Wednesday. Similarly with SE Queensland the better of the falls already look to have started to clear as an upper low moves away from the coast. 

 

Heatwave conditions are expected to continue tomorrow about the Arnhem District of the Northern Territory however they will begin to ease back to more seasonal temperatures from Wednesday/Thursday. See the heatwave forecast here. BoM heatwave forecast

BoM NSW : Storm season underway, with more thunderstorms likely for NSW

Storm season underway, with more thunderstorms likely for NSW

 

04/11/2015

 

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning of thunderstorms for large areas of New South Wales, with severe thunderstorms possible, as a deep low pressure trough moves through the state.

 

Bureau of Meteorology Acting New South Wales Regional Director, Mr Stephen Lellyett, said there was a high likelihood of severe thunderstorms in far western NSW today (Wednesday), and western slopes and plains tomorrow (Thursday) with storms also possible in surrounding areas.

 

“The main impacts are likely to be damaging wind gusts, large hail and localised heavy rainfall. We’re closely monitoring the system and will issue warnings as the situation develops,” said Mr Lellyett.

 

“Storm season is already well underway, and storms have been quite widespread over the past week in New South Wales, with more storm activity was expected over the coming days and months.

 

“The majority of storms in NSW occur between November and March, and despite strong El Niño conditions, this year will be no exception for severe thunderstorms affecting the state,” he said.

 

NSW SES Commission Adam Dent reminded communities to be prepared.

 

“This spring has already seen severe storms cause damage in a number of communities across the state. With timely and appropriate preparation, some of this damage could have been prevented. As severe storms are likely in many parts of the state tomorrow, it is important people prepare their homes and businesses now to minimise damage and keep themselves, and their families, safer.

 

“Cleaning gutters and downpipes, securing or putting away loose items, checking your roof is in good repair and keeping out of flash floodwater are simple measures that can make a big difference when storms strike,” said Mr Dent.

 

The public are urged to closely monitor the Bureau’s website, tune into the media and local radio, and listen to the advice of emergency services. For storm and flood assistance, contact the NSW SES on 132 500, and for life threatening situations, call Triple Zero (000).

 

See the Bureau's website for the latest warnings: www.bom.gov.au/warnings

 

The Bureau is now using Twitter to disseminate significant weather information for the community. Follow @BOM_NSW. The Bureau's website remains the most up-to-date and comprehensive official source of information.

National: Severe thunderstorm threat.

Severe thunderstorms have been active today and are expected to be potentially widespread tomorrow across the eastern states and into the Northern Territory as troughs and upper level disturbances combine to trigger thunderstorms with the potential for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and large hail. The potential mostly contracts to Queensland on Friday and then develops along an inland trough through western Australia across the weekend.

From Friday the potential for widespread rainfall from thunderstorms and showers tends to ease back to more isolated showers and thunderstorms rather than the widespread activity of the last couple of days and tomorrow. As a result rainfall will become patchier. Tuesday could see another broad are of instability develop but at this stage falls will be patchier and generally light.

National: Wet 48 hours in the SE States.

A surface low supported by an upper disturbance and several associated troughs will maintain showers and thunderstorms and areas of rain about the south east mainland states in the next 48 hours with showers and thunderstorms extending into Queensland and Northern Territory.

The potential of localised heavy falls exists through parts of South Australia, New South Wales, ACT and Victoria although the more widespread heavier totals will be associated with thundery rain with areas experiencing more localised showers and thunderstorms expected to record patchier heavier falls. 

Weather warnings have already been issued including a Flood Watch in South Australia and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and further weather warnings are likely in the coming 2 days. You can see what warning impact your state and region here. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

By the weekend a high will ridge through the south east states with a clearing pattern although onshore winds will maintain potential showers about the New South Wales coast.

National: October mostly hot and dry but more November rainfall ahead.

Nationally October heat records were broken with many of the individual states also setting new October temperatures records with Canberra, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide also setting new October heat. See how your state and city or town fared.  http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statement_archives.shtml

There is more rain ahead across the mainland southern states and New South Wales/ACT as a deepening surface trough and associated low combine with an upper level disturbance and moisture feeding into and ahead of the surface trough. Thunderstorm activity is expected to produce the heavier of the falls and there should be a fairly extensive band of thundery rain develop about the south east quarter of New South Wales and into the north east of Victoria. 

As with the weekends system the forecast models are suggesting widespread heavy falls but as much of the higher rainfall will be associated with thunderstorms the heavier falls are more likely in the identified regions more than widespread falls to those levels in those regions. there is also the potential for severe thunderstorms developing through the week so keep an eye on your states weather warnings. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/warnings/index.shtml

Showers and thunderstorms will also extend from the north west of the Northern Territory and into the western and southern inland of Queensland but at this stage the falls will be patchier and lighter than the more southern states.