Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory

IDD10755

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory

Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook 2016-17

Issued at 2:55 pm CST on Monday 10 October 2016.

We're ready, are you?

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued its tropical cyclone seasonal outlook today, reminding Territory residents to prepare now for the coming cyclone season.

The climate drivers are pointing towards an average to above-average tropical cyclone season for Australia this year, said Northern Territory Regional Director, Todd Smith.

"This will mean a much more active season than 2015/16 where we had just three tropical cyclones across Australia, the lowest number on record. The average for Australia is 11 each year. In a typical season, we usually see two to three cyclones form in NT waters, with at least one of those crossing the coast.

"The Bureau and NT Emergency Services are ready for whatever the coming season can throw at us - it's a core part of our business. Now is the time for Territorians to make sure theyre ready too.

"It's really important to be aware of all of the hazards associated with tropical cyclones, which can include destructive winds, thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, storm surge and widespread floods."

Northern Territory Emergency Service Chief Officer, Andrew Warton agreed.

Now is the time for Territorians to prepare for the coming season, Mr Warton said. While we have a highly capable emergency service, there is also a responsibility upon individuals to make their own preparations well in advance of any significant weather events.

Having a Household Emergency Plan is a great place to start in terms of preparation. Discuss with your family and friends what they will do in an emergency or disaster. Answer these questions: Is your home safe? Where will you shelter? Is your yard clear of loose material that could become a dangerous projectile during extreme winds?

Mr Warton advised that it can take up to 72 hours for help to arrive after a significant event.

Ensure you have an up to date emergency kit, and that your kit is able to sustain you and each member of your family for three days or more, he said.

"Keep checking the BoM website for the most up to date forecasts and warnings and follow BOM_NT on twitter for regular updates," Todd Smith added.

The tropical cyclone season runs from 1 November to 30 April.

Summary of the Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory

A 56% chance of an above average number of tropical cyclones in waters around the NT, the north Kimberley coast and the Gulf of Carpentaria (average number is two or three).

* Likelihood of at least one coastal crossing.

* During neutral years, the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Australia typically occurs in late December - in La Nina years, first landfall typically occurs earlier in December

* National Tropical Cyclone Outlook - http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/cyclones/australia/