In decades past, there was a quite-specific image of post-Fidel Cuba. Exiles would stream into the country to take back their homes and businesses. Sectors of discontent Cubans would march in the streets to demand an end to the communist system. Without the ironclad leadership of Castro, the country would turn quickly to embrace market reforms.
But in 2016, Cuba presents a very different scenario. Fidel managed a transition in leadership to his brother Raul 10 years ago, when his health started to decline. In practical terms, Fidel's death presents little to no challenge to the everyday functioning of the Cuban government. And when Raul retires in two years, there will be a transition in leadership to Vice-President Miguel Diaz-Canel, ensuring a continuity with the Castro brothers' policies and programs.
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Cuba relations under Trump, post-Fidel
As a candidate, President-elect Donald Trump said he would roll-back reforms made by US President Barack Obama.
While there have been mixed reactions in Cuba to Fidel's death, there are no large marches in the streets. This is only partly due to fear of reprisal. In an era of change and uncertainty, Fidel represents the idealism and hopes of an earlier generation that it could create an independent and equitable socialist system on an island under the yoke of the United States. This is especially the case for Cubans of an older generation.
After several decades of experimentation with market reforms, Cubans are now less likely to want a wholesale transition to a free-market system. Tourism, the legalisation of small businesses like restaurants, and joint ventures with foreign firms have provided some Cubans with better resources and opportunities, but they have also resulted in widely increasing racial and economic divisions in Cuban society.
![Former Cuban president Fidel Castro in Havana in 2004.](http://web.archive.org./web/20170522084129im_/https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/y/8/u/s/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gszyhd.png/1482363862395.jpg)
Although the Cuban socialist system became dysfunctional after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cuban leadership has had to tread carefully in its market reforms to preserve the most important and cherished aspects of Cuban socialism, including the healthcare and education systems. Cubans could see the vast inequalities that opened up in Russia and Eastern Europe after the collapse of communism, and that was not a model they wanted to emulate.
Rather we must imagine a post-Fidel Cuba alongside a post-Obama America.
In December 2015, President Obama had announced a policy of normalisation with Cuba, restoring diplomatic ties and seeking the eventual end of the economic blockade against Cuba. With the election of Donald Trump to the presidency, that project may be in jeopardy.
It is unclear what policies Trump will pursue towards Cuba, but he has appointed the Cuban-American hardliner Mauricio Claver-Carone to his transition team, and this does not bode well. Even if Trump as a businessman continues to encourage market openings in Cuba, his provocations and anti-Cuba discourse will probably take Cuba back down a Cold War path of hostility and tensions.
![Cuban President Raul Castro and US President Barack Obama in Havana in March. Donald Trump pledged to undo Mr Obama's ...](http://web.archive.org./web/20170522084129im_/https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/r/z/e/n/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gszyhd.png/1480399269237.jpg)
Where Obama sought respectful dialogue and engagement alongside covert regime change policies, Trump is more open about his ambitions in converting Cuba to capitalism.
At this moment, Cuba finds itself somewhat adrift. It is cut loose from both Fidel as an anchoring figure who represented the ideals of a utopic socialist society, and soon from Obama, who sought to end the archaic US strategy of isolationism.
Whether Raul can steer the country through these difficult times is uncertain, because he has neither the charisma of his brother nor the profound historical resonance as a leader.
The most we could say about a post-Fidel Cuba in a post-Obama world is that it will be a time of uncertainty.
For many Cubans, the priority will be to hold on to the social welfare institutions that have been Fidel's legacy, while providing economic opportunities for those on the island to improve their lives.
Sujatha Fernandes is a professor at The University of Sydney.
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