Naivety Olympics to Gather in Euphoria, Utopia. Apply Now!
I begin this posting with an official communication from Mr M.T. Vessel, President-for-Life of the International Naivety Olympics Commission: ‘To the gullible and easily-bamboozled of all nations, I today issue this call, that you gather next year, in the month of Thermidor, in Euphoria, capital of Utopia, for the Naivety Olympics of 2015. Don’t worry about travel bookings or hotels. Accept our assurances that your flights will arrive on time, and your hotels will be ready and waiting. Plans for a new stadium are likewise well-advanced, and the fact that it does not yet exist, and that no work has begun on it, should not put you off. After all, you swallow much bigger unlikelihoods every day.
'Not since the Cold War, when the same festival was held permanently in Moscow, and welcomed thousands of western academics and journalists convinced of the greatness of Soviet Communism (though many of them preferred to take part by not actually going there) , has there been such a strong force for naivety in the world.’
Nowadays of course the global naivety movement focuses on Ukraine, where the Olympically Naïve heroically contend that Ukraine is subject to mischievous intervention only from one direction, that of Russia. Now, as someone who thinks that Russia has a strong case in this region, I would not for a second deny that Russian intervention is taking place there. Of course it is. Even though there has been scant hard evidence and the Moscow government has absurdly denied it, no grown-up person could fail to recognise that Russian agents and military personnel have been active in stirring up, organising and directing the separatist movement around Donyetsk , and were similarly engaged in the Crimea.
This does not mean that they were not blowing on genuine sparks of real feeling. But the use by the separatists of common symbols, flags and slogans, their ability to form into substantial crowds, build effective barricades, locate key buildings, acquire articulate spokesmen , all speak to me of organisation. And it takes little effort to work out where that will have come from. Also the whole thing has been skilfully amplified by sympathetic media coverage from, Russia, which has given great prominence to, and great encouragement to, the crowds.
In Crimea, the lawful presence of large Russian forces in and around Sevastopol made the action much simpler. In Eastern Ukraine, it is more complicated. But, as they say in Louisiana, ‘If you find a turtle on top of a fencepost, you know it didn’t get there by accident’.
Well and good. The normal deductive powers of any sentient human must lead him to this conclusion. I’m a defender of Russia’s reasonable concerns in this part of the world, but I don’t see why that should lead to me to deny or ignore the obvious truth, or pretend that ‘my’ side has not behaved unscrupulously and dishonestly. In the same way, I don’t make excuses for official Russian lawlessness, or pretend that Vladimir Putin is some sort of liberal democrat. He is a sinister tyrant.
Yet examine the parallel developments in Western Ukraine and on the Kiev Maidan, and you will find the supporters of the EU quite unable to make the same judgements of what has been happening there. When I was growing up, we used to laugh at the very phrase ‘spontaneous demonstration’ It’s such an obvious oxymoron. You might as well find that a Spontaneous Battleship of 60,000 tons displacement, armed with 12 16" guns had appeared off your coastline. There is no such thing as a spontaneous demonstration. Demonstrations need a great deal of planning, they need objectives, route plans, timings, common slogans, symbols, banners, speakers, sound equipment, spokesmen and women to deal with the media. Once they become, as did the Maidan, long-term occupations of streets and buildings, they require logistics, food, sanitation, shelter, shift systems, some hierarchy of authority. All these things need money, generally ready cash. They also die without media support , to reflect their own importance back at them, to encourage those already there to stay, and urge new recruits to arrive.
This, we are asked to believe, grew out of thin air in Kiev. Nobody planned it, nobody helped it, its symbols and slogans appeared from nowhere, stimulated only by the touching idealism of the Ukrainian people.
Over the weekend, I had the chance to put this to Radoslaw (Radek) Sikorski, Foreign Minister of Poland, who started communicating with me on ‘Twaddle’ after I drew attention to his interview in the Washington Post the other day, in which he made it clear (despite the absurd flounderings of Roger Boyes on this subject at last Thursday’s meeting in London, see earlier posts) that the EU very much desires that Ukraine should join it.
From what I can see, my interlocutor really is the Polish Foreign Minister. If this is an elaborate satire, perhaps someone could tell me so. Mr Boyes having gone off to Waitrose when he began losing the argument with me, I’ve been having it out with Mr Sikorski, on and off, ever since.
I began by asking him (about 11.00 am Sunday , BST) ‘Do you seriously maintain that the Maidan protest was not in any way encouraged or assisted by persons from outside Ukraine’ .
And despite repeating the question, and teasing him for not answering it, I do not believe I have yet had a definitive reply to this question.
I have, of course, had the usual answers one gets in such discussions, to things I have not said, and (hilariously) the suggestion that Nigel Farage addressing a meeting of Eurosceptic Poles in Warsaw is the equivalent to Victoria Nuland (the USA’s Assistant Secretary of State), or Baroness (Catherine) Ashton (The EU High representative for Foreign Affairs) mingling happily with the Maidan demonstrators. If either of these charing ladies has souight to mingle with the demonstrators of Donyetsk or Slavyansk, let alone hand out biscuits to them, I have not heard of it. So i think it reasonable to assume that their appearance was a sign of partialityin an internal Ukrainian quarrel
Ms Nuland, as we know from her leaked phone calls, has gone a good deal further than handing out comestibles.
Mr Farage, unlike these people, does not speak for any government, national or supranational, and is not proposing the expansion of EU power into a currently independent country. He is not the High Representative of anything. Mr Sikorski's parallel, to the extent it exists at all, is exceedingly feeble. But if (say) the Swiss and Norwegian premiers went to Warsaw and began addressing anti-Euro rallies in Nowy Swiat (abolition of the Zloty remains a contentious issue in Poland), I think Mr Sikorski would be speaking quite sharply to them, their ambassadors and foreign ministers. He would see it (rightly) as an improper breach of Polish national sovereignty.
Mr Sikorski also appears not to have answered my question to him about what the CIA Director was recently doing in Kiev.
We have had a number of other exchanges, which subscribers to ‘Twaddle’ may easily access. I was interested to see that this much-lauded spokesman of the New Europe thinks that Britain held a referendum on Common Market membership *before* joining, a schoolboy mistake, especially for a fluent English speaker educated for some time at Oxford.
Membership was a fait accompli at the time of the referendum and those who recall it directly (as I do) know that it was shamelessly rigged, with the Wilson government sending out two pamphlets urging a ‘Yes’ vote (The ‘Yes’ campaign’s and the Government’s own, also in favour of continued membership, though the Cabinet was in fact divided) and only one urging a ‘No’ vote. I might add that not one major newspaper supported the ‘No’ campaign (and you can imagine how the BBC behaved).
If this sort of thing happened in the Russian Federation, Mr Sikorski would of course condemn it, and rightly so.
(Personal note: I voted ‘No’, largely because an executive on the local paper for which I then worked killed a story I had written for the morning of the vote, in which I revealed serious dishonesty and skulduggery by the local ‘Yes’ campaign. Until then, I had been intending to vote ‘yes’, having been put off the ‘No’ campaign by the grotesque fake-Churchillian rhetoric of (of all people) Peter Shore, at a packed pubic meeting in Swindon ).
It really is time that those who want a serious discussion of the Ukraine issue recognised that it is what it is, a power struggle between two blocs – Russia, an unchanging historic force in central and eastern Europe, which regards Ukraine as an important part of its defences; and the EU, the modern manifestation of German economic, diplomatic and political power, which likewise sees Ukraine as the key to its continued expansion and prosperity.
Neither side is wholly right and neither side is wholly wrong. A compromise, involving permanent Ukrainian neutrality, a good deal of federalism especially on language issues, and considerable economic aid to that country from both directions, would seem to me to be the best solution for the *people* of that unhappy region.
It is my view that the ‘West’ is taking sides, and pretending falsely that it is a Good versus Evil contest, because of Russia’s stance as the defender of national sovereignty, especially since its refusal to take part in the destabilisation of Syria, which Saudi Arabia ( a nation so important it is barely ever discussed in public) wanted and which the United States (I suspect) promised Saudi Arabia it would achieve. A Russian defeat in Ukraine, the 'West' believes, will lead to the overthrow (by 'people power') of Vladimir Putin and the installation in Moscow of a 'pro-Western' Yeltsin-style government, just as corrupt and repressive as Mr Putin's. but complaisant about the neo-conservative attack on national sovereignty in Syria and elsewhere.
As soon as one recognises this, that it is an old-fashioned contest between two major powers, the issue is transformed from some kind of ludicrous moral campaign for a ‘free Ukraine’ ( an objective many decades away by any route) into what it actually is, a power struggle in which postmodern weapons, orchestrated mobs, biased broadcasting, etc, are used to achieve the aims which, before 1939, were sought through naked force. But these postmodern methods are not without risks, nor are they invariably peaceful. On the contrary, they can kill as surely as any tank or bomber can kill.
From the beginning of this controversy my main concern has been to try to avoid the horrors which are now emerging. I here reproduce what I wrote near the start of this episode, in the Mail on Sunday of
26th January under the headline ‘Fanning the Flames of Another Nightmare’
‘NOW that we have reduced Syria to ruins and refugee camps through our noble benevolence, we want to do the same to Ukraine.
Western media and politicians, who do not even understand their own societies, repeatedly descend on foreign countries posing as liberators, encouraging and funding rebellions.
Too late, they find they have called up unstoppable, demonic violence, and lit fires they cannot put out. Ukraine is a prime candidate for a disastrous civil war.
Its people used to live together relatively harmoniously. But the Ukrainian-speaking West is very different from the Russian-speaking East, and the EU's clodhopping intervention in Kiev is encouraging divisions between the two.
The people who backed the rebels in Syria claimed to be surprised when many turned out to be Islamist fanatics of the sort we try to deport from Britain. Maybe they really were surprised, though it was quite predictable that such people would hate Damascus's secular state.
Well, let us spare these geniuses any surprises about Ukraine. Already a sinister faction called 'Pravy Sektor', violent and ugly, has elbowed aside the smiley crowds in Kiev. Nationalism in this much-invaded, blood-steeped part of the world has an especially dark past. Do we really want to revive it?’
I stand by every word.
STOP PRESS:
Next year’s Naivety Olympics in Utopia have been cancelled, following outbreaks of severe violence in the city of Euphoria, where armed riot police have been battling with crowds equipped with iron bars and Molotov cocktails. The riots are believed to have been sparked by the fury of freedom-loving citizens over the failure of talks about a planned accession agreement between Utopia and the EU. Cloud-Cuckoo Land, Utopia’s powerful neighbour, had offered an alternative deal, supported by many in the East of Utopia, whereas Western Utopians tend to favour the EU route. The proposed site of the Games has now been set aside for mass graves. ‘We’re used to this sort of thing’ said a Utopian government spokesman. ‘Somehow, nobody ever actually gets here’. Meanwhile the Utopian Parliament discussed plans to adopt a new name for their country - EUtopia