A Chicken Is Not Pillage

Week 7 Picks

I don't have much time for exposition, so I will simply ask the reader to consider this one thing.  In my recaps of last week's games, I pointed out that people are pretty het up about a call made late in a game between Bird Teams.  It seems a certain Richard Sherman might have impeded the arm motion of a guy named Julio Jones which most certainly cost a team from Georgia a solid victory.  Before anyone gets all tense, yes, I thought it was probably pass interference just like you did.  But did it 'cost Atlanta the game'?  No.  For one, even if Sherman had released Julio's arm, he would have done so reaching for the ball himself.  A Catch was never ever guaranteed.  Two, the whole point of moving extra points back to the 15 yard line is that it makes it more difficult for kickers.  Jones would have been at approximately the 35, which means a 52 yard field goal attempt to win.  Hardly a done deal.

But that's all beside the point.  What is my point is this.  NFL officials have an impossible task.  They are called upon to make certain that players follow ambiguous rules in order to keep the game 'fair'.   Officials are cautioned against letting their rulings affect the outcome and can (and will) be punished if they violate the rules affecting outcome while tasked with enforcing rules that obviously affect outcome.  Slightly to the side like, Roger Goodell is going to "look into" why NFL viewership is down.  I wonder if those two circumstances are related ...

On with the picks.

Thursday:

Chicago (1-5) at Green Bay (3-2) - Packers

No Lacy?  No problem.  Not against the Bears.

Sunday:

New York Giants (3-3) at Los Angeles (3-3) in London - Giants

The jet-lag from LA must be killer.

New Orleans (2-3) at Kansas City (3-2) - Chiefs

The Chiefs have a defense.

Indianapolis (2-4) at Tennessee (3-3) - Titans

Trust in LaBeau.

Minnesota (5-0) at Philadelphia (3-2) - Vikings

That defense is savage.

Cleveland (0-6) at Cincinnati (2-4) - Bengals

Again hoping for an upset.

Washington (4-2) at Detroit (3-3) - Lions

Risky risky pick.  The Taterskins are for real, but Stafford is better than Cousins by a long shot.

Oakland (4-2) at Jacksonville (2-3) - Raiders

That defense has to show up sometime, doesn't it?

Buffalo (4-2) at Miami (2-4) - Bills

The Bills  have some momentum.  Miami has a game.

Baltimore (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5) - Ravens

Manhattan has no faith in Pickspatrick.  I have even less in Geno.

Tampa Bay (2-3) at San Francisco (1-5) - Niners

If Gabbert were starting, I'd pick the other way.  I think Kaepernick has the will to win.

San Diego (2-4) at Atlanta (4-2) - Falcons

It will take a few more weeks for the southern shame to set in.  The Chargers just don't have the horses to beat Atlanta right now.

New England (5-1) at Pittsburgh (4-2) - Patriots

Under Tomlin, the Steelers have played to the level of their competition.  But this week, they don't have Roethlisberger.  He misses the toughest game of the season and angry Tommy walks to a win.

Sunday Night:

Seattle (4-1) at Arizona (3-3) - Seahawks

Arians is committed to the KC style of ball control.  But the SeaChickens stuff the run.

Monday Night:

Houston (4-2) at Denver (4-2) - Broncos

Von Miller and Shane Ray just can't wait to give Brock Osweiler welcoming hugs in the backfield.

Byes:  Dallas, Carolina

Last Week's Score:   11 - 4, 73%,    Overall:   56 - 36,  61%

For the record, my picks are still better than absolutely Every Single One of ESPN's experts.  Including fan picks.  Just sayin ...

 

 

Week 6 Picks

My picks this year haven't been all that good.  Neither have anyone's.  And I'm loving.every.second.of it.  The NFL has gone insane, both in good and bad ways.  Other fans have apparently not warmed up to the changes we are seeing as viewer-ship is down across the board.  It can only be speculated as to why, and I have my own ideas, some among the good and some among the bad.

The Good:

Defense rules.  The NFL owners had a brilliant plan to hamstring defense and promote scoring.  That plan has backfired to a degree.  Defenses used to be made of gazillian pound monsters up front and tiny little speeders in the back.  What separated good defenses from the bad was the interior, safeties who could devastate and middle linebackers who  could terrorize.  As the rules changed to favor bigger and slower wide outs, and hinder the heavy hitters, defensive players have adapted, as have their coaches.  Linemen are lighter and faster, pass rushers are quicker and use skills beyond bulk and power, and DBs are taller and more 'receiver like' than ever.  Interior backers are less like Randy Gradishar or Dick Butkis and more like pass defenders.  Old school football has made a return to form.  As owners and administrators change the rules to favor the future Jerry Rices (there will never be another Jerry Rice), Coaches are calling on tight ends and running backs to be receiving machines, letting the running game dictate pace and seeking ball control over flashy chunks of turf.  31 years ago, the best team in football had the best defense that ever played.  3 years ago, the best offense ever seen was defeated when it mattered by a defense geared towards those old school rules with modern tooling.  This year, the Vikings are statistically challenging the '85 Bears and Minnesota remains the only undefeated team coming into week six.   Defense matters more than ever.  How can anyone not like this?

N00bs are ruling.  The quarterback position is more important than ever, with brains trumping size or toughness.  Yes, we still have the elites we love, Big Ben, Rodgers, Brees.  But the young guys are being effective and doing it in a hurry.  2 Rookies in the same year have challenged Tom Brady's string of pass attempts without an interception.  One is still inching closer.  The one who threw a garbage interception is from an FCS school.  The quarterback spot is in flux, the kind of thing we haven't seen in 30 years.  Not since the QB draft of '83 (Elway, Kelly, Marino) have we seen this kind of game-altering production from the young guys under center.  I'm loving this, even if others aren't.

The Bad:

Herr Goodell and the control Stripetroopers.  Suspensions are really getting out of hand.  It was one thing when they were utilized to promote  the league's integrity.  Now they are being used to promote league image.  This is not the way people want football to look.  Which leads to:

The No Fun League.   Even college players are being allowed more leeway to celebrate than the NFL players are (except for spiking the ball, 'cause Gronk does that and he's a celebrity ...)  It's been noticed, A LOT, that the status of the player can dictate when a "taunting" or "excessive celebration" penalty can be called.  That's not football, it's bullshit marketing of the counter-productive kind.  "Oooh, this player looked at another player wrong and if he does it again we'll alter the game by ejecting him".  This is the grossest over-reaction to Odell Beckham trying helmet missile another player.  Short of spiking the ball into the opponent's nuts, taunting should be a non-thing.

From a player's perspective, here's what they are being told.  If you enjoy what you accomplish we will take money from you and pump it into the richest professional league in history.  Players aren't happy, and can't navigate these draconian by-laws.  I don't blame them.  Terrell Davis, who popularized the Mile High Salute to honor the fans would now be charged with a fine and penalty for bringing the fans closer to the game.  I wonder why the NFL viewer-ship is down ... not.

Color Rush:  Crass commercialism.  The only good thing to come out of this uniform travesty is the Broncos wearing the D-Pony.

Win Now:  I will deal with another time.  Until then, on with the picks.

 Thursday:

Denver (4-1) at San Diego (1-4) - Broncos (13-21, Chargers)

I've said before that Denver would miss Danny Travatheon more than Malik Jackson.  Atlanta made the blueprint for defeating the Broncos but San Diego doesn't have the players who can do it.

People need to quit blaming Seimian for this loss.  he didn't fumble a punt and commit a personal foul adding insult to injury.  He didn't commit 8 holding penalties, one in the end zone for a San Diego Safety score.

Sunday:

San Francisco (1-4) at Buffalo (3-2) - Bills (16-45, Bills)

Niners cross country.  Niners go boom.  But I think they are better with Keapernick than with Gabbert.

Buffalo is borderline legit.

Philadelphia (3-1) at Washington (3-2) -  Eagles (20-27, Taterskins)

I'm going with the defense here.

Proof that a running game can make even Kirk Cousins look good.

Cleveland (0-5) at Tennessee (2-3) - Titans (26-28, Titans)

The one game I really hope for an upset.

Not to be.  Mariota has wheels.

Baltimore (3-2) at New York Giants (2-3) - Giants (23-27, GMen)

Eli will not have a great game, but one good enough.

And Odell Beckham has a great game.

Carolina (1-4) at New Orleans (1-3) - Saints (38-41, Saints)

Newton will have to prove that he can keep his head in a game.

Newton played well, but the rest of the Panthers, not so much.  That Panthers secondary is just dreadful without Norman.

Jacksonville (1-3) at Chicago (1-4) - Jaguars (17-16, Jaguars)

They are coming on.

Closer than I thought it would be.

Los Angeles (3-2) at Detroit (2-3) - Lions (28-31, Lions)

I really have no preference here.  So I'm going with the home team.

This really was some of the best we've seen from Stafford.

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Miami (1-4) - Steelers (15-30, Dolphins)

It must truly suck to be Adam Gase right now.  He's got shit for a team.

Or maybe not.  It seems a hallmark of Tomlin's team that they play down to the competition.  The only really appropriate response to the Steelers performance is "Barf".

Cincinnati (2-3) at New England (4-1) - Hatriots (17-35, Hatriots)

I have no desire to say anything other than that I will drunkenly celebrate if the Bengals pull this off.

Whatever.

Kansas City (2-2) at Oakland (4-1) - Chiefs (26-10, Chiefs)

The Raiders can't seem to pressure anyone right now.  And if you don't shake Alex Smith, he will systematically pick you apart.

That played out pretty much exactly as I thought it would.

Atlanta (4-1) at Seattle (3-1) - Seahawks (24-26, SeaChickens)

Seattle will be better at controlling the middle of the field than the Broncos were.

Quit bitching about the non-call that may have cost Atlanta the game.  That is exactly what should be expected when you hand the zebras almost unlimited power to affect the game, and then tell them they will be punished if what they do affects the game.

Dallas (4-1) at Green Bay (3-1) - Packers (30-16, Cowboys)

I hate these 'flip a coin' picks.  But it is in Wisconsin.

That's it.  I am totally on the Zeke and Dak bandwagon.  The 'Boys don't just look good, they look like championship contenders.

Sunday Night:

Indianapolis (2-3) at Houston (3-2) - Texans (23-26, Texans)

Even Osweiler can decimate the Colts D.

Yup, and it only took 3+ quarters for him to figure out how.

Monday Night:

New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona (2-3) - Cardinals (3-28, Cardinals)

Larry Fitzgerald for the win.

David Johnson for the win.

 Byes: Minnesota, Tampa Bay

Last Week's Score:  7 - 7,  50%,  Overall:  45 - 32,  58%

Week 5 Picks

I'm just curious, does anyone remember the last time that the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos were both 4 and 0, and considered THE power teams in the NFL?  You know, it was a year when the Vikings were handed something new (ownership in that case, a stadium in this one.)  The Vikings had a 'replacement' quarterback (Randall Cunningham) and the Broncos were the defending Super Bowl champs with the second best defense in the NFL, a questionably capable quarterback, and a power running attack.  The guy calling the plays and coaching the offense and quarterbacks was Gary Kubiak.  On staff was Rick Dennison.  That's right, you guessed it.  1998, when just about everybody expected the Broncos to face the Vikings in the Super Bowl, but the Vikes lost the Hallas to the Falcons, and the Broncos crushed Atlanta in SB 33.

The comparisons break down after that.  The game has changed to favor passing even more than in '98.  CJ Anderson is not Terrell Davis.  The Vikings don't have Randy Moss or Cris Carter.  Trevor Siemian, for all his talents, is not John Elway, and Paxton Lynch (an Elway clone) is not quite ripe.  Still, it's fun to imagine that this might be the year that the Vikings, 0-4 in the Show, face the Broncos 3-5 in the big game.  Back in the early '90s I had a friend, a Vikings fan, who continually told me that the Vikings could never face the Broncos in the Super Bowl lest the world come to an end because neither team at 0-4 was allowed the win.  The Broncos have now won three, but it would be nice to see the rebirth of the Purple People Eaters against the Orange Crush 2.0.  Minnesota and Denver are the teams that sit at 4-0, and I don't think either is pulling the foot off the pedal.  And just to make things really fun, Atlanta sits atop the NFC South and has the best scoring offense in the NFL.  The Falcons now go to Denver, to face the No Fly Zone.  We'll get a reboot of what happened in Super Bowl 33.

For those who track records, the Broncos are now number 2 on the list of professional sports franchises ranked by winning percentage.  They have passed the L.A. Lakers and trail only the San Antonio Spurs.  This happens in the same year that Pat Bowlen, whose team has won more games in his tenure than any other NFL team was passed over for inclusion in the NFL Hall of Fame for Jerry fricking Jones.  Consider that the Broncos have twice as many Super Bowl appearances as they do players in the HOF.  Consider that, leaving Gary Zimmerman aside having spent most of his career in Minnesota, the Broncos have as many Super Bowl wins as they have Hall of Famers.  Consider that Terrell Davis, the only eligible member of the 2000 yard club who won a championship in his 2000 yard season is still not in the HOF.  I have no idea why the Broncos get such disrespect, but here we are back in 1998.  Minnesota is undefeated at 4-0, the Broncos are undefeated at 4-0, and Atlanta intends to spoil the party.  Bring on the Falcons.  The No Fly Zone is waiting.

 

Thursday:

Arizona (1-3) at San Francisco (1-3) -  Cardinals (33-21, Cardinals)

Without Carson Palmer a weak looking team looks weaker.  But then again, the 'Niners won't have Navarro Bowman, so ...

What 'Niners defense?

Sunday:

New England (3-1) at Cleveland (0-4) - Hatriots (33-13, Hatriots)

The return of Angry Tommy.

Whatever.

Philadelphia (3-0) at Detroit (1-3) - Eagles (23-24, Lions)

I keep with the Rookie.  After all, he's got the defense to make him look good.

The most upsetting thing is Wentz's needless first interception in garbage time.

Chicago (1-3) at Indianapolis (1-3) - Colts (23-29, Colts)

Yes, I still think the Bears are worse than the Browns.

The Bears had some D against that awful Indy O-Line, but that's about all.  And Vinatieri will be the second place kicker in the HoF after Stenerud.

Tennessee (1-3) at Miami (1-3) -  Dolphins  (30-17, Titans)

If this game even gets played.  If not or a change of venue, then I call a Mulligan on the pick.

No Mulligan on this one.  Miami just looks awful.

Washington (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1) - Ravens (16-10, Taterskins)

Uncomfortable with this pick, but the Raven's D stopping the run puts all the pressure on Cousins.

There was a reason I was uncomfortable with this pick.

Houston (3-1) at Minnesota (4-0) - Vikings (13-31, Vikings)

Never bet against an incredible defense.

Last of the undefeateds.

New York Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1) - Steelers (13-31, Steelers)

As indicated, Revis is not himself.  Pickspatrick is, well, himself, and Geno is no better.

Not much to say.

Atlanta (3-1) at Denver (4-0) -  Broncos (23-16, Falcons)

Kubiak understudy calls the Atlanta offense.  This will be the toughest test for the No-Fly-Zone yet.  It will also be the toughest test for Matty Ice and Julio Jones.  I take the Broncos at home.

Chris Harris put it best:  the Falcons ran the Patriots offense, only with their running backs instead of their tight ends.

Cincinnati (2-2) at Dallas (3-1) - Bengals (14-28, Cowboys)

Actually the risky pick of the week.  But the Bengals are well rested ...

The way that defense played, I'm not doubting Jason Garrett ever again.  And the only real challenger to Ezekial Elliot being Offensive Rookie of the year is his teammate Dak Prescott.

Buffalo (2-2) at Los Angeles (3-1) - Rams (30-19, Bills)

Rex is riding high, but the Rams' Defense is looking more stout by the week.

The very second one has any faith in Fisher's team, that hope is dashed by consistent mediocrity.

San Diego (1-3) at Oakland (3-1) - Raiders (31-34, Raiders)

One of those games I wish both teams could lose.

With this win and the Denver loss, Oakland takes over the top of the AFC West, for now.

Sunday Night:

New York Giants (2-2) at Green Bay (2-1) - Packers (16-23, Packers)

Off a bye week, Rodgers looks good.  Eli does not, and I benched him in Fantasy.

Not nearly as close as the score shows it to be.  Green Bay had this game all the way.

Monday Night:

Tampa Bay (1-3) at Carolina (1-3) -Panthers (17-14, Buccaneers)

Carolina can't be that bad, can they?

Yes, apparently they can be that bad.  I've seen the losing team have a Super Bowl hangover before, but only the 2003 Raiders rivaled this, and the Raiders didn't have Carolina's level of coaching or talent.  Cam looks like he is playing backyard football, like he doesn't care about the outcome.

Byes:  Kansas City, Jacksonville, Seattle, New Orleans

Last Week's Score:  8 - 7,  53%,   Overall:  38 - 25,  56%