Peter van Onselen: Colin Barnett will struggle to win third term
AS we count down to next year’s State election we can officially declare the once-great advantage of incumbency dead, buried and cremated. This of course is bad news for the Government, even if the polls have tightened.
Colin Barnett is seeking a third term, a feat which has always been hard to achieve. But previously his Government would have at least enjoyed a natural incumbency advantage: voter concerns about inexperienced opponents, resource advantages attached to controlling the levers of government, voter instincts to stick with governments that have delivered.
However, in our modern throwaway culture voters are much more prepared to punish their politicians at the ballot box. The political class doesn’t enjoy the respect it once did, and there are many more media and social media platforms to express discontent with decisions made by government.
The Donald Trump phenomenon represented some of these sentiments. He tapped into a voter base disenchanted by politics, which generally speaking is anti-incumbent.
Hillary Clinton may not have been an incumbent herself but she was essentially asking for an extension of Barack Obama’s Democratic presidency, albeit with a change of leader.
Malcolm Turnbull suffered a big swing against his Government based on the same principle and we also see State governments suffering as incumbent administrations, some just a short time after thumping wins. Among them Mike Baird’s NSW Government.
The Barnett Government carries the added disadvantage that it tore itself apart courtesy of Dean Nalder challenging Barnett a few short months ago — an act of madness, stupidity and skulduggery all wrapped into one. When voters enter the polling booths early next year the chances are that many will pause and think to themselves: “If a senior minister didn’t think Barnett should contest the next election, why should I support him again?”
One incumbency advantage a long-term government should have is depth of talent. However, through a mixture of scandals, betrayals, shifts to Federal politics and retirements, Team Barnett is light on when it comes to quality personnel. Plus, Mark McGowan is no untested alternative Premier. He was a successful minister in the last Labor government.
To be sure, Barnett isn’t out of the race and WA is a relatively conservative State. But the bell tolls for the Barnett Government. Winning a third term would be a remarkable result.
Peter van Onselen is The Sunday Times’ political analyst and a professor at UWA.