You pay a price for being so good in AFL football. And Hawthorn know that better than anyone.
While the Hawks have managed to stay abreast of most of their rivals for a long time through great coaching and shrewd list management, the AFL fixture has rarely done them any favours.
![The AFL's newbies, GWS, have the hardest draw - according to this formula.](/web/20161031181316im_/http://www.watoday.com.au/content/dam/images/g/r/q/8/n/c/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gscf3a.png/1477563761367.jpg)
By my reckoning, the 2017 fixture released on Thursday, will be the fifth time in five seasons Hawthorn have been dealt, purely in football terms, the toughest or second-toughest draw in the competition.
Some observations that the Hawks have it easy next year seem overly focussed on their start to the season and ignore other important factors like the two lots of consecutive six-day breaks they're up against.
However you assess their fixture for next season, though, the difficulty factor hasn't hindered their success much. And the good news for all 18 teams is that for all the hand-wringing that seems to go with it, the fixture in recent seasons has rarely been the maker or breaker of a team's on-field fortunes.
That will be of particular comfort to Greater Western Sydney, who have by my assessment, the toughest draw for next year. In terms of opponents played twice, no-one does it harder than the Giants, who have return clashes against the other three members of last season's eventual top four, another finalist in West Coast, and Richmond.
The Age's annual assessment of the winners and losers out of the AFL fixture takes into account far more than merely the five teams each club meets twice in their 22 games.
That's only one of four key factors – the others being road trips, the home-versus-interstate-side advantage, and the very significant consideration of consecutive six-day breaks.
![AFL fixture analysis](/web/20161031181316im_/http://www.watoday.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/c/i/7/1/image.related.articleLeadNarrow.300x0.gscf3a.png/1477563761367.jpg)
And while it can all make an important difference to clusters of teams not separated by much in terms of ability, talent still generally prevails.
Take the season just completed. Of the eight teams with the easiest runs for 2016 (by my formula at least), only Geelong made it to the finals. And the Cats' draw, which we ranked the third-best, was extraordinarily kind for a side which only just missed out on the finals the previous season.
The teams handed the four most difficult draws for 2016, meanwhile – North Melbourne, Hawthorn, West Coast and Adelaide – all saw September action.
Over the past three years, only five sides from 24 boasting what we ranked among the best eight draws in the AFL were able to use the leg-up as a catapult towards finals football.
Nonetheless, to say it doesn't play any significant part is also naïve. With the exception of Hawthorn, the other three sides which finished the 2016 home and away rounds in the top four, none had a fixture ranked any tougher than seventh most difficult.
So what are those little advantages and disadvantages which may make a finals aspirant's job that much harder or more in 2017?
Consecutive six-days breaks are in many ways the toughest fixture hurdles for clubs to negotiate, affecting up to a month's worth of physical preparation in-season. And on that score Melbourne, while overall being dealt a reasonable hand, will do it tough.
The Demons are the only club next year with three consecutive six-day breaks, though St Kilda and Hawthorn both have two lots of two.
Melbourne will come off their mid-season bye to take on Collingwood in the Queen's Birthday Monday game, the Western Bulldogs the following Sunday, West Coast in Perth the Saturday after that, before a Friday night clash with Sydney at the MCG.
That's a tough enough schedule even with maximum rest times let alone three lots of just six days. Needless to say, that little block between rounds 12-15 could make or break Melbourne's season.
Essendon have done particularly well. The Bombers play just one top eight team twice, and only one of their six road trips is to Perth. It's what you might expect for a team coming off a wooden spoon, yet with those 10 banned players returning, the Dons are hardly your garden variety wooden spooner, either.
Port Adelaide and Richmond have also fared well for two teams who underperformed badly in 2016.
The Power play only two of this year's top eight twice and have no consecutive six-day breaks. The Tigers go to Perth only once in their six road trips, and GWS are the only finalist they meet twice.
That's a pretty good result for a Richmond outfit not only desperate to atone for a miserable 2016, but with some impressive additions to the blend already in trade-ins Dion Prestia and Josh Caddy.
If you're looking for a team to perhaps jump up a few rungs next season, this fixture might make you consider the Tigers a little more. By the same token, as tough as the 2017 draw it looks for some of the success stories of this year, history suggests strongly it will take more than that to knock them from their perch.
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