AVJennings CEO Peter Summers says don't worry about the Trump effect

AVJennings chief executive Peter Summers is not factoring in any pain from rates rises in the coming year.
AVJennings chief executive Peter Summers is not factoring in any pain from rates rises in the coming year. Supplied

Peter Summers, who heads busy residential developer AVJennings, does not expect much, if any, movement upwards in rates in the coming year despite the Trump effect already making its mark in global bond markets.

Instead, the Reserve Bank of Australia will be more concerned about maintaining a low Australian dollar as the economy completes its transition from the mining boom, according to Mr Summers.

"I'm not really worried about interest rates right now. The environment is not going to be one where we see a significant or alarming move in interest rates," he told AFR Weekend after the annual shareholder meeting on Friday.

"I wouldn't underestimate how important a low Australian dollar is to the Reserve Bank."

Bond markets in the US and Australia are already anticipating the likely impact of the Trump ascendancy, with a combination of fiscal stimulus and tax cuts in the US expected to cause inflation and push up rates.

As international funding costs rise, some non-bank lenders in the past week have begun raising fixed-rate mortgages, in what may signal a broader move by lenders.

The state of the Australian housing market, and its sensitivity to a rate rise, are pressing questions for home buyers and investors, along with developers and the banks who lend to both.

Listed property investor and developer Mirvac was also in the spotlight at its annual meeting in the past week, after reporting a higher apartment default rate than its usual 1 per cent.

Existing obstacles

But AVJennings' Mr Summers is less concerned about the Trump effect than existing obstacles in the local market that hinder the supply of traditional housing.

AVJennings has some exposure to apartment development, including the $450 million Waterline project in Melbourne's Williamstown.

But most of its development effort is in greenfield housing estates, where sales volumes and prices have been strong in the past year.

Mr Summers expects the growth rate in sales volumes and prices to "mature" in the coming year and the results to be weighted towards the AVJennings' second half.

The Melbourne-based developer's 2016 net profit was up 19 per cent to $40.9 million as it increased the sales of its housing lots.

In one of his strongest statements to an annual meeting yet, Mr Summers slammed planning delays over one major project within an urban growth corridor in Melbourne's north.

"As I stand here today, we are still waiting for approval to apply for a permit, let alone turn the first sod of soil," Mr Summers told shareholders.

"A six-year process is too long and unacceptable, particularly when compared with the number of apartment completions in the same time period."

Mr Summers said the apartment market was subject to "short term" trends, partly due to the fact that planning barriers were lower for high-rise projects than for traditional areas of housing.

AVJennings does not give earnings guidance, but Mr Summers is expecting a similar level of contract signings in 2017 as achieved in 2016, which was 1832.