France played well enough in their 52-8 win against Samoa last weekend to suggest two things: their embarrassing loss to the All Blacks in the World Cup last year really was their nadir, there are no more depths to plumb: and second, if the Wallabies play only moderately this weekend they will lose. The French have more individual threats than the Scots.
One of their biggest threats, however, is gone. No.10 Francois Trinh-Duc was injured against the Samoans and while Michael Cheika has attempted to play down the significance of Trinh-Duc's absence, it was classic coach-speak.
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Cheika knows that neither of Trinh-Duc's replacements, Jean-Marc Doussain or Camille Lopez, are even close to Trinh-Duc in quality.
When Doussain came on last week, he looked every inch of what he is really is: a halfback playing out of position at No.10. The left-footer has a suspect passing game going from right to left and represents a minimal threat with his running game.
![Known danger man: Wesley Fofana scores against the Wallabies in 2012 and will pose a threat this weekend.](/web/20161125081600im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/r/3/a/l/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsqdha.png/1479347111968.jpg)
Lopez is a more natural five-eighth but Trinh-Duc's loss cannot be described as anything but a major loss for the French.
But there is bad news for Wallabies fans anticipating a less stressful experience than the narrow Scotland win. The French halfback, Maxine Machenaud, was energetic last week and the high tempo the French played at helped create a bit of space wider out for Wesley Fofana, who was simply world class.
Also, their Fijian wing Virimi Vakatawa provided the sort of finishing ability that Cheika no doubt hopes Marika Koroibete can in time provide, and right wing Yoann Huget – whose World Cup was ended prematurely due to injury – looked back to his best.
Another familiar name was heavily involved in their most positive moments as well – Louis Picamoles. The giant No.8 is now playing for Northampton in the English Premiership, and the move appears to have refreshed him. He was still making yards deep into the game, and is of course a big threat off the back of the scrum with his ability to carry and offload.
![Hard to handle: Virimi Vakatawa.](/web/20161125081600im_/http://www.smh.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/r/3/b/1/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gsqdha.png/1479347111968.jpg)
That's five French players who are genuinely good Test players and Fofana is probably the pick of the bunch. We've known it for a while of course, but the No.12 has pace, strength, good footwork and the much-overlooked ability to draw and pass. He's capable of hurting the Wallabies if there is any uncertainty in the midfield defence.
What of the scrum? Apart from the first scrum there was little sign of French dominance but that all changed when the replacement props come on. More than anything, that suggests there is a gap in quality between the Samoan starters and bench options.
Indeed, the most impressive work of New Zealand-born French tight-head Uini Atonio came away from the set-piece and in open play, where he carried the ball with damaging effect.
Atonio first came to prominence on account of his sheer size, but he looks to have trimmed down and his mobility has benefited accordingly. With French hooker Guilhem Guirado already a noted ball carrier, the French certainly do have a few options there.
The back five of the pack looked less impressive, and in a 10-minute spell after half-time the French defence did not look convincing when forced to make a number of repeat tackles. Perhaps it was tactical, or a reflection of the personnel they have available, but they didn't put a lot of pressure on the ball on the ground as Scotland did so well in Edinburgh.
Samoa lacked the ability to profit, but the Wallabies might have seen a weakness there – as they would in France's inability to cope with restarts down the middle of the field.
However, the over-riding feature of the French performance was the pace at which they tried to play. Although apparently not a favourite of French media, Machenaud was quick to the ruck and fast with his delivery. There were few kicks to an aerial contest and they even opted for quick lineouts to maintain the speed of the game.
Obviously the tactics were tailored to move the Samoans around, but it perhaps signalled that the French were shifting away from the kicking game and heavy midfield collisions that were a feature under previous coach Philippe Saint Andre.
Forget that French 62-13 loss to the All Blacks last year, this is a game the Wallabies could lose in a tour that is getting harder each week.
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