The Donald Trump presidency has changed the world, from undermining Barack Obama's legacy to thumping the NSW Nationals in the Orange byelection.
Now Mr Trump looms as the key obstacle to a long-awaited and much-needed positive development in Australia's refugee program.
![Malcolm Turnbull and his Immigration Minister Peter Dutton are treading a fine line between striking third-country ...](http://web.archive.org./web/20171220193924im_/https://www.fairfaxstatic.com.au/content/dam/images/g/s/o/4/0/s/image.related.articleLeadwide.620x349.gso500.png/1479857851326.jpg)
The Turnbull government has struck a deal to resettle in the US up to 1800 refugees held on Nauru and Manus Island.
Had Hillary Clinton triumphed in the US presidential election last week, this deal would be hailed as a win-win.
While details are scant and timing uncertain, the potential is there for the Manus Island detention centre in Papua New Guinea to be closed, as that nation's Supreme Court has demanded. The chances are that Australia will also strike a deal with Nauru for 20-year visas for those who decline US resettlement or are not deemed refugees. Hope is high that refugee children will never be in Australian-overseen detention again. And Labor is likely to back the plan, meaning the High Court here will be less of a threat.
The agreement might even involve a people swap from US-overseen refugee camps in Costa Rica which were established to deter asylum seekers and illegal migrants from trying to enter the US through unofficial channels. In effect Australia would be swapping South American land people for Middle Eastern and Asian boat people, with little change in the total refugee intake for both countries.
How ironic, though, that Mr Trump holds in his hands the fate of many Central American migrants and Muslim refugees. Given his harsh rhetoric against both, the US-Australia deal must be on shaky ground. Indeed, even if Mr Trump accepted the Obama-Turnbull deal, any raising of the security checks on refugees entering the US might mean far fewer were resettled. The process will be extended and vexed.
Still, the Herald has called for such resettlement deals under the auspices of the United Nations. Resettlement is as important to a deterrent refugee policy as humane conditions in – and independent scrutiny of – offshore centres.
How ironic, though, that the Coalition has struck this deal when under Tony Abbott it opposed Labor's agreements with Malaysia in 2011 and subsequently expressed regret for doing so.
Under the Turnbull government deal, the refugees will be resettled in a country far more inviting than Malaysia. But we believe well-designed deterrent measures of the sort the government has flagged for this deal can minimise the risk of people smugglers using it to sell Australia to boat people as a stepping stone to resettlement in the West.
It is easy to see the people smugglers' message: "Boat people under Australian control hit the jackpot with US residency!" No wonder Mr Turnbull stressed many times on Sunday that this was a one-off deal with the US and no future arrivals would benefit. Realistically, some future deals might be struck – in fact they will be needed if more boat people arrive. And the more one-offs are struck, the more it looks like an incentive for people smugglers to tell boat people to take a chance and wait it out until the next deal.
As such the government needs to keep sending the deterrent message and ensuring sea patrols are effective. More boats will patrol Australia's northern waters just in case.
Many will argue that Australia should be letting boat people remain in Australia anyway. There are sound reasons to support that view.
But if the harsh policy we have is meant to save lives at sea, then it must include foolproof resettlement agreements.
The conditions of this deal do not seem to include the Turnbull government's proposed ban on any of the resettled refugees from ever entering Australia. The ban remains important, though, because it plugs a potential crack in any resettlement plan. A deal that allows refugees to enter Australia on any visa is in effect a backdoor way for boat people – and as such people smugglers – to achieve their aim.
Labor had opposed the travel-back ban. Now the US deal has been announced, Labor is rightly indicating support overall, with the sensible caveat that detail is crucial.
The most important detail will be how Mr Trump reacts when he enters the White House in January. In the meantime, the Turnbull government should work to make the deal foolproof and seek more resettlement agreements with nations such as Canada and New Zealand.