Trump claims Assad and Russia are killing ISIS0:30
NBC's Richard Engel breaks down Donald Trump's comments on Russia, Syria and Assad in the war against ISIS. Courtesy: NBC
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump listens to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton during the second presidential debate at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri yesterday. Picture: Paul J Richards
DONALD Trump has been accused of “buying Russia’s propaganda” as the dust settles on America’s second presidential debate.
Trump ran into trouble in the debate when moderator Martha Raddatz grilled him about his views on the war in Syria - and he contradicted his own vice-presidential nominee, Mike Pence.
“I want to remind you what your running mate said,” Raddatz said. “He said provocations by Russia need to be met with American strength, and that if Russia continues to be involved in air strikes along with the Syrian government forces of Assad, the United States of America should be prepared to use military force to strike the military targets of the Assad regime.”
“OK. He and I haven’t spoken, and I disagree. I disagree,” Trump replied bluntly.
“I think you have to knock out ISIS. Right now, Syria is fighting ISIS.
“I don’t like Assad at all, but Assad is killing ISIS. Russia is killing ISIS. And Iran is killing ISIS.
“I believe we have to get ISIS. We have to worry about ISIS before we can get too much more involved.”
Donald Trump at the debate. Pic: AFP/Robyn BeckSource:AFP
Trump’s position is simple. He believes Vladimir Putin and Bashar al-Assad are both focusing on destroying the Islamic State, and so America should essentially treat them as allies in that endeavour.
The problem? Trump appears to be ignoring a few inconvenient facts, which his opponent made a point of mentioning in her own answer about the Syrian crisis.
“Every day that goes by, we see the results of a regime by Assad in partnership with the Iranians on the ground, the Russians in the air, bombarding places, in particular Aleppo, where there are hundreds of thousands of people,” Clinton said.
“There is a determined effort by the Russian air force to destroy Aleppo in order to eliminate the last of the Syrian rebels who are really holding out against the Assad regime.
“Russia hasn’t paid any attention to ISIS. They’re interested in keeping Assad in power.
“I think wherever we can cooperate with Russia, that’s fine,” she said. “But I do support the effort to investigate for crimes, war crimes committed by the Syrians and the Russians and try to hold them accountable.”
Pic: AFP/Paul J. RichardsSource:AFP
Let’s unpack that. Clinton was referring to the major Syrian city of Aleppo, which is the last real stronghold of the rebels fighting against Assad’s regime. The official policy of the United States, incidentally, is still that Assad needs to be removed from power.
Russia has been aiding the regime by bombing the various rebel groups, particularly in Aleppo, where there are hundreds of thousands of civilians. That’s led the global community, including the United States, to call for an investigation into possible war crimes committed by Russia and the Syrian government.
Clinton believes Vladimir Putin has used ISIS as an excuse to move military forces into Syria, where Russia’s real goal is to keep Assad in charge of the country.
WATCH: Drone video released by Syrian activists purports to show aftermath of Russian bombing campaign in an #Aleppo neighborhood. pic.twitter.com/KE5QeVEB3F
— NBC Nightly News (@NBCNightlyNews) October 11, 2016
The contrast between Trump and Clinton’s comments was incredibly stark, and Trump’s critics shredded him immediately after the debate, claiming he had no idea what he was talking about.
“Trump doesn’t grasp the basic facts of the situation, doesn’t understand the history of the conflict and doesn’t seem curious enough to figure it out,” wrote the Washington Post’s Josh Rogin.
“Assad and his partners have largely avoided fighting the Islamic State in favour of fighting the rebels closer to their territory and attacking civilian areas under rebel control. The Assad-Russia-Iran alliance has existed for decades.
“The Assad regime and its Russian partners are bombarding eastern Aleppo each and every day in a brutal campaign to crush the opposition unders siege there by terrorising the civilian population.
“It’s probably not a coincidence that Trump’s description of the situation in Syria largely tracks with the Russian government propaganda line, because Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have roughly the same worldview.”
Trump has bought Russian and Syrian propaganda, that they are fighting ISIS, hook line and sinker. Imagine what else he'll fall for.
— S.E. Cupp (@secupp) October 10, 2016
That’s a scathing takedown. But is it fair? The facts are more muddled than you might think.
The Institute for the Study of War has been keeping track of Russia’s activities in Syria in pinpoint detail.
This is how it summed up Putin’s strategy in a recent report: “Russia will continue to exert pressure on the US and the international community by escalating levels of violence in order to extract concessions in negotiations over the Syrian civil war.”
The Institute has also published a series of maps showing the exact locations of Russia’s air strikes. You’ll notice the vast majority of them have taken place in rebel-held territory, and a much smaller number have been in areas held by the Islamic State (rebel territory is highlighted in yellow; ISIS territory in black).
The most recent map shows Russia focusing on Aleppo Picture: Institute for the Study of WarSource:Supplied
This map shows some strikes in IS territory. Picture: Institute for the Study of WarSource:Supplied
Again, Russia is focusing its fire primarily on rebel-held areas. Picture: Institute for the Study of War.Source:Supplied
That information is backed up by other reports. For example, NBC’s Richard Engel fact-checked Trump’s debate comments and found just 17 per cent of Russia’s air strikes are targeting the Islamic State at the moment.
“Which leaves the question ... what are the other 83 per cent targeting?” Engel asked. “If you ask the people of Aleppo, they will say they are targeting opposition groups and civilians.”
Dr Rodger Shanahan, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute and an expert on Middle East security, told news.com.au Trump’s point was technically neither correct nor incorrect.
“It’s too simplistic to say Russia is fighting ISIS, but it’s also incorrect to say they’re not fighting ISIS,” Dr Shanahan said.
“Trump implying that Russia is just fighting ISIS is not correct, nor are opponents or fact-checkers claiming Russia is not targeting ISIS.”
Syrian government soldiers are advancing through Aleppo’s rebel-held neighbourhoods. Pic: AFPSource:AFP
Dr Shanahan said snaphots, such as the maps above, only provide information about Russia’s air campaign over a specified, short period of time, and a longer term outlook is needed to reach a more accurate conclusion.
“You can’t just look at just one week,” he said. “The main military effort changes over time and Russia is not just targeting ISIS, although it has done so in Hama, Deir az-Zour and Palmyra for instance.”
Dr Shanahan added that Russia is supporting the Assad government and ISIS is just one of many groups it is targeting.
“There are other armed groups working alongside a proscribed terrorist group such as Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, and when Russia considers all groups opposed to the Assad regime as targets, they take little care in differentiating one group from the other.”
So, while the US is concentrating on destroying ISIS in eastern Syria, Russia sees little need to bomb that region at the moment, preferring to concentrate its efforts on Aleppo.
Aleppo is not a nice place to be at the moment. Pic: AFPSource:AFP
That obviously causes tension between the two foreign powers. While the Americans have been trying to boost “moderate” rebel groups, who are fighting for a democratic election to replace Assad, Russia claims those groups are dangerously intermingled with ISIS and al-Qaeda. That would mean the US is indirectly providing resources to ISIS.
The upshot of all this? Trump isn’t completely wrong. Putin and Assad are fighting the Islamic State, to a certain extent. But Trump is ignoring the most important piece of the puzzle in Syria - that Russia is actively undermining America’s strategy by attacking rebel groups and propping up a murderous dictator.